The New Normal

[MarzNC]

The situation in Colorado for deaths attributed to COVID-19 is quite different than in the spring. The general thinking is there are several likely reasons. People are getting tested somewhat earlier in their illness and treatment is better than in the spring. While there are probably a few hospitals feeling the strain of increasing admissions, overall the ICU bed usage for the state is well under 50%.

My sense is that Utah has a much bigger problem than Colorado. There are areas of Utah where hospitals may soon be overwhelmed. The Percent Positive has been almost 20% in recent days.

 

[Harvey]

In addition to the positive vaccine news yesterday, some other good news.

We are getting better at keeping people alive. Death rate has dropped from 7% to under 2%.

 

[jasonwx]

Still 1000 deaths a day on avg.

 

[raisingarizona]

You gotta admit, getting vaccine news two days after Biden has been officially declared our new president is curious.

 

[Brownski]

You gotta admit, getting vaccine news two days after Biden has been officially declared our new president is curious.

Ixnay on the politay- but yeah, sure. Whatever. Give me the shot and I’m headed to MRG, receipt in hand

 

[MarzNC]

We are getting better at keeping people alive. Death rate has dropped from 7% to under 2%.

Yes. But it's also true that a much larger percentage of detected cases of COVID-19 are people ages 20-49. Deaths continue to mostly be people over 60.

The high death rate in Feb-Apr when some hospitals were overwhelmed was artificially high. Unfortunately that's happening again, just in different states. El Paso is as bad as NYC was in the early weeks. Also increasing deaths in many European countries that thought the problem was over in by July.

The fatality rate is generally accepted to be in the 2-3% range, perhaps a little lower. That's about 10 times of the rate for seasonal flu. That doesn't even take into account the "long haul" issues that being noted by a small but significant percentage of people who don't recover within a few weeks. That includes younger patients ages 15-40.

Suppose 80% of those who get COVID-19 recover. 20% is a big number of really sick people given that the population of the U.S. is 330 million. The infection rate I've see lately are something like only 10% of Americans have been infected so far. Probably a lot lower in the northeast. The regions like the Mountain West where exponential growth is taking hold are in big trouble if people don't start taking public health recommendations for wearing face masks, keeping distance, and avoiding social gatherings over the upcoming holidays. Utah and Colorado are in the national news for the wrong reasons right now given that ski resorts are opening in November.

 

[Campgottagopee]

The Rona is all around us now here in CNY. For the first time people I know are testing positive. Now that we'll be moving indoors due to the weather is even more concerning. God I hope we don't shut down again.

 

[Harvey]

But it's also true that a much larger percentage of detected cases of COVID-19 are people ages 20-49.

Good point.

 

[jasonwx]

The Rona is all around us now here in CNY. For the first time people I know are testing positive. Now that we'll be moving indoors due to the weather is even more concerning. God I hope we don't shut down again.

I past a local burger/ bar restaurant Friday night. It was packed!! Zero distancing zero masks.
No bueno

 

[raisingarizona]

Ixnay on the politay- but yeah, sure. Whatever. Give me the shot and I’m headed to MRG, receipt in hand

I know, I know......

But, it’s hard to talk about this situation without some political observations as part of the discussion.

one of the trail faeries here is from Australia. He told me that they went on a serious lock down for a good while, now there’s no covid problem there. It sounds like that if our leadership had made a tough call that wouldn’t have been popular with his supporters we might be in a better place. The catch though is that his poor leadership is what imho sealed the deal on him losing.

This isn’t an emotional, one sided political opinion, more of just an observation. It’s interesting to me.