The New Normal

[The UNHOLY]

I'm starting to feel that maybe it's time to take the muzzle off and let people decide what they want to, or don't want to do.

 

[Brownski]

I agree Camp.

 

[MarzNC]

I'm starting to feel that maybe it's time to take the muzzle off and let people decide what they want to, or don't want to do.

I don't really disagree with the idea. But I also think continued education from a public health standpoint about how COVID-19 is transmitted should be considered a high priority. There are deaths that can be avoided if even 50% of people wear face masks and keep their distance, while at the same time going about their daily lives away from home. Medical research for COVID-19 is moving at a very fast pace. Still need more time. I'm not thinking about vaccine development, but more about diagnosis and treatment options for those who have more than mild symptoms.

There is a death in Maine that is directly traceable to an indoor wedding in early August with about 60 people, more than the limit currently allowed. So clearly just having rules isn't enough. The question is how to get more people to understand what's risky behavior and what isn't.

 

[MarzNC]

Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign thought they had a plan that would work. It's based on saliva testing at the start, followed by twice weekly re-testing. What they didn't anticipate is how many students who tested positive would not self-quarantine. <sigh> (My husband and his two brothers went to UIUC long ago.)

August 29, Fortune

One university may have the best COVID testing operation in the U.S.—and tests students twice per week

An Illinois school has radically revolutionized large-scale COVID testing.

fortune.com

Sept. 2, Chicago Sun Times

‘Irresponsible and dangerous’ behavior at UIUC could lead to end of in-person semester after COVID-19 spike, shool warns

More than 700 people on campus have tested positive for the virus since school started Aug. 24.

chicago.suntimes.com

" . . .
School administration says parties and other large gatherings over the weekend are to blame for the high number of positive tests, as well as students disregarding guidance to self-isolate after testing positive or being exposed to someone who tests positive. Two students have been suspended, and 100 more are being investigated and could face school discipline.

The school emphasized Wednesday that students face “immediate suspension” if they don’t quarantine or isolate per university direction. People hosting parties will also be suspended immediately, too.

“The irresponsible and dangerous actions of a small number of our students has created a very real possibility of ending an in-person semester for all of us here,” said UIUC Chancellor Robert Jones. “There are poor choices that led to a very concerning and rapid increase in the number of new undergraduate COVID-19 positive cases.”
. . ."

 

[The UNHOLY]

Pandemic every 100 years, it's natures way of culling the herd.?

 

[JTG]

Isn't the mortality rate like 2-3% and the majority of those deaths are people classified as "high risk" ?

Based on confirmed cases and reported deaths it’s 3% in the US (186,000 deaths / 6,130,000 Confirmed cases), 3.75% Worldwide (300,000/8,000,000).

The question is whether those percentages (more specifically the reported deaths and confirmed cases) have any validity.

Could the COVID-19 reported deaths number be inflated because the medical community, from the beginning, has been prone to report deaths as COVID-19 related when they might possibly have been caused by something else? Is the case number understated, given the likelihood that MANY people have been infected but never tested, and therefore never included in the case totals?

Just to give you a sense of how the numbers change....if you halve the death total (assuming the cause of death for many wasn’t COVID-19 but rather the underlying heath issues they already had) and double the case total (assuming as many people have been infected and not tested as people who have).......and the death rate drops in the US from 3% to .7%.

Big difference, though deadlier than Influenza. What are the real numbers/percentages? Who knows?

If you assume that the entire US population, or even half of it, will eventually be infected with COVID-19....at a 3% death rate that’s 5m to 10m US deaths. Do you take the muzzle off and allow that to happen? On the other hand, if the true death rate is somewhere near .5% that’s 800k to 1.6m US deaths. Since 2010 it is estimated as many as 350k people have died from Influenzas. At a .5% death rate taking the muzzle would make sense.

Too much is still unknown. The bradykinin hypothesis is very interesting.

Personally, I think the 3% death rate is grossly overestimated, but what do I know.....

 

[MarzNC]

Personally, I think the 3% death rate is grossly overestimated, but what do I know.....

How about 3% plus/minus 5%? Remember, I'm a statistician so no number is exact but only a good estimate with some level of variance.

The reports I find interesting aren't about the number of COVID-19 deaths, but the number of "excess deaths." Have seen some by country that are very clear that the pandemic made a huge difference in the first half of 2020. Here's what has happened in the U.S. by state. First came out in early May and has been updated as death certificates are recorded.

May 5 and being updated, NY Times

True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 377,000 (Published 2021)

Since coronavirus struck, more people have died than usual in every state of the country, with 23 states seeing deaths above normal peaking in the last two months, according to a New York Times analysis.

www.nytimes.com

 

[JTG]

Interesting statistics regarding the “excess deaths”. Total deaths as compared to average are higher, and by more than reported CV-19 deaths. If we assume that CV-19 is the only variable causing “excess deaths” then it’s a reasonable statistical argument that CV-19 deaths are underreported.

Now if we can find something statistically valid about the total number of cases perhaps we can get a better estimate of actual death rate....+/-3% maybe?

I found a couple different studies/estimates (which are now several months ago old) that indicate actual cases are likely 2 to 3 times the confirmed reported cases.

 

[Brownski]

There’s still a lot that’s unknowable in the present tense. Excess deaths statistics will capture people killed by the shutdowns and other factors related to our response as well as Covid deaths. My gut still says that the cure has been worse then the disease. I hope I live long enough to see an objective, thorough analysis of what worked and what didn’t.

 

[Campgottagopee]

My gut still says that the cure has been worse then the disease. I hope I live long enough to see an objective, thorough analysis of what worked and what didn’t.

Same thoughts here.