The New Normal

[MarzNC]

So why is that one Delta variant so much higher than everything else?

For the week of August 15, Alpha was 0.2% with a range of 0.0% to 0.7% while Delta was 98.8% with a range of 97.6% to 99.8%. So the range for the Prediction Interval was 0.7% for Alpha and 2.2% for Delta. Not sure that's really much different. But then I tend to think in round numbers. Drives my husband nuts when he asks me how much something cost at the grocery store so he can compare to a different store.

Bottom line is that a most of the samples that week were Delta, well over 98%.

The genomic sample data is coming from a lot more places in August 2021 than early in 2021. In general, testing was slow to get organized in 2020. That applied to all types of testing including PCR, rapid antigen, and genomic sequencing.

 

[MarzNC]

Read the conclusion!

Found it.

Here's what stuck out for me based on a quick look at the section titled All Cause Mortality. I do not have the patience to read that long a report. Especially when I have a friend with more relevant knowledge who is paying close attention to the topic.

"Meta-analysis of 15 trials, assessing 2438 participants, found that ivermectin reduced the risk of death by an average of 62% (95% CI 27%–81%) compared with no ivermectin treatment [average RR (aRR) 0.38, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.73; I2 = 49%]; risk of death 2.3% versus 7.8% among hospitalized patients in this analysis, respectively (SoF Table 2 and Figure 3)."

The 62% figure you noted has a Confidence Interval from 27% to 81%. It's a meta-analysis, no matter how quantitative the report makes the analysis appear. Perhaps Ivermectin is worth investigating, but to start using it on a regular basis as a treatment for people who are hospitalized just based on this report would be a stretch.

Have you searched for lab studies related to Ivermectin and COVID-19?

 

[MarzNC]

Folks also use SAS software daily to determine and later study Critical Process Parameters (CPP’s) when developing and manufacturing medicines.
SAS is powerful validated software for analyzing big data and making sense out of it.
It would be interesting to see trend-line data for the vaccines.

I’m retired too and focus on critical in-process parameters for golfing and skiing mainly.
Humans invented mathematics, puzzles and games.
It’s fun to figure stuff out, especially good stuff.

I started using SAS software long before it was possible to process large datasets. Taught the Introduction to SAS course a few times as a grad student. Had to help friends when they took the course from someone else debug their program . . . on punched cards. Wasn't until the SAS '82 version came out that I convinced my Highway Safety co-workers it was worth creating a permanent SAS dataset to analyze NC highway accident data.

SAS Institute is happily helping with COVID-19 research. The corporate headquarters and campus is 20 min from my house. The cafeteria food is really good. Or was when I was working. Used to co-author a paper every year with a friend who worked there. We'd have our meetings just before lunch.

May 12, 2020

SAS powers response to COVID-19 by health organizations globally

SAS works with health and government organizations across the globe to respond to COVID-19’s unique challenges by putting data to work and supporting analytics-based decisions.

www.sas.com

June 10, 2021

SAS delivers free analytics training for COVID researchers

/PRNewswire/ -- Analytics leader SAS is increasing its support of COVID researchers through new, free analytics training options. A year ago, SAS provided free...

www.prnewswire.com

When it comes to figuring out skiing, I'm a visual learner. Reading about ski technique does very little. Following a really good skier or an instructor is much more effective.

 

[Warp daddy]

 

[Sbob]

Found it.

Here's what stuck out for me based on a quick look at the section titled All Cause Mortality. I do not have the patience to read that long a report. Especially when I have a friend with more relevant knowledge who is paying close attention to the topic.

"Meta-analysis of 15 trials, assessing 2438 participants, found that ivermectin reduced the risk of death by an average of 62% (95% CI 27%–81%) compared with no ivermectin treatment [average RR (aRR) 0.38, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.73; I2 = 49%]; risk of death 2.3% versus 7.8% among hospitalized patients in this analysis, respectively (SoF Table 2 and Figure 3)."

The 62% figure you noted has a Confidence Interval from 27% to 81%. It's a meta-analysis, no matter how quantitative the report makes the analysis appear. Perhaps Ivermectin is worth investigating, but to start using it on a regular basis as a treatment for people who are hospitalized just based on this report would be a stretch.

Have you searched for lab studies related to Ivermectin and COVID-19?

Guess I’m late to the joke? First I’ve heard ivermectin was used for Covid was yesterday. I searched it and that journal article came up.

I like to plan ahead in case I have a breakthrough from Pfizer vax . Must say I’m a Merck fan as my wife spent 15yrs in the vaccine division. They donated tons of ivermectin to Africa , it prevents river blindness. So treating humans doesn’t seem like a stretch.

 

[x10003q]

Table: Ivermectin Clinical Data | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines

Review clinical data on the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.

www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov

no better than a placebo

 

[MarzNC]

I like to plan ahead in case I have a breakthrough from Pfizer vax

So far, my sense is that except for a relatively small number of seniors (out of hundreds of millions vaccinated) who had underlying medical issues, people who are breakthrough cases recover at home in a few days.

Being aware that breakthrough infections can happen with enough exposure is important. No COVID-19 vaccine is going to be 100% effective at preventing infection. I'm taking about the same precautions now as I did a year ago. I wasn't the type to wear a mask outdoors in 2020. I carry a cloth mask in my pocket when I go shopping and use it as appropriate depending on my surroundings.

August 26, 2021

Breakthrough Covid Cases: Uncommon and Often Mild, but Not Always (Published 2021)

Vaccination remains the best defense, health experts say. But some infections occur regardless, and can come as a traumatic surprise.

www.nytimes.com

Asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 were happening all over the world in 2020. But without routine testing, most were probably never detected. Before Delta, or even Alpha, the thinking was that the percentage of asymptomatic people who would never develop noticeable symptoms was between 20-40%. A few reports said 80% but that didn't hold up because there is another category to consider, which is "pre-symptomatic." Meaning someone who tests positive, but has no symptoms . . . yet.

November 2020

What the data say about asymptomatic COVID infections

People without symptoms can pass on the virus, but estimating their contribution to outbreaks is challenging.

www.nature.com

 

[MarzNC]

For a different viewpoint on why public health precautions are still needed even with vaccines available, check out this interview by an Australian. I learn about the pandemic from the Aussie ski forum. She interviewed a American public health leader in mid-August. He had experience with Ebola and many other public health initiatives in the last few decades. I'm guessing he didn't really know that much about the situation in Australia before the interview. Usually Australians are more interested in advice from someone who is British. What he said about the need to still be careful made sense to me.

The recent lock downs due to community spread of Delta have really messed up the Australian ski season. I think all the ski resorts were forced to shut down. Even when they were open, travel restrictions between Australian states that started in July meant a lot of people cancelled ski vacations. Vaccinations are only up to about 30% overall for fully vaccinated and 50% for first dose. Mostly using Astra Zeneca, which has a 12 week gap between doses. Also using Pfizer but very limited supplies until a few weeks ago. Since the numbers were so low with closed international borders, Australians were in no hurry to get vaccinated. Delta changed the situation by mid-June 2021.

I found the interviewer very annoying. At the same time, I realized she probably is a good representation of how many Australians are thinking right now. After I made a comment, an Aussie posted that she "is a notorious tabloid-tv ‘personality’ who adds a special histrionic frisson to everything."

 

[Harvey]

Louisiana is bracing for a big hit from Hurricane IDA. There is a lot to contend with, including the fact that hospitals are jammed full throughout the southeast and there is no nearby capacity to evacuate patients. Right now the plan is to leave all the patients in place, run the hospitals on huge generators and try to get power back on as quickly as possible. 10,000 lineman have been brought in to try to "quickly" fix the storm damage.

 

[MarzNC]

Table: Ivermectin Clinical Data | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines

Review clinical data on the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.

www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov

no better than a placebo

Good to see several Phase 2 double-blind studies, along with the retrospective studies. Lots of countries involved. It's amazing that anyone can keep up with all the research happening for COVID-19.