The New Normal

[tirolski]

When close to everybody is vaccinated a larger percentage of the cases will naturally be “breakthroughs”.

There’s nothing natural about the new mRNA vaccines, just sayin. Other than humans coming up with the tech and controlling the robots manufacturing them for mass production.

 

[Tjf1967]

There’s nothing natural about the new mRNA vaccines, just sayin. Other than humans coming up with the tech and controlling the robots manufacturing them for mass production.

No.

If you aren't vaccinated, don't go to crowded indoor spaces, don't serve in the military, don't work in a hospital and, most of all, don't send your kid to school with my granddaughter.

I don't even understand why that's controversial. I threw a student out of my classroom for not being vaxxed for hepatitus 25 years ago, and I was happy to do it.

mm

Does mm stand for me me. Everything is always about you.

 

[Harvey]

The clinical trials done in 2020 happened in multiple countries. In some trials Alpha wasn't even around that much. In others, the original strain and then Alpha were out in the general population during the study period. The vaccines developed in the first half of 2020 for Phase 1/2 trials were designed to induce an immune reaction to the original strain, not Alpha.

Delta has become dominant because it's far more transmissible than Alpha or any other variant. Has little to do with vaccination rollout, which has varied a great deal not only in the U.S. but all around the world.

Did I post the CDC webpage about variants in this thread? Here's how the chart looked a week ago. VOI=Variant of Interest, VOC=Variant of Concern. There have been a few news reports about Lambda, which came from S. America. Lambda is a VOI, not a VOC.

View attachment 10248

What is PI%?

I'm not abandoning the vax just assuming that at some point, like the flu vax, there will be a new version, modified to account for Delta or other variants. True or false?

I got sucked down the ivermectin rabbit hole last night on Facebook, wow.

 

[MarzNC]

What is PI%?

Did I post the CDC webpage about variants in this thread? Here's how the chart looked a week ago. VOI=Variant of Interest, VOC=Variant of Concern. There have been a few news reports about Lambda, which came from S. America. Lambda is a VOI, not a VOC.

Good question. It's Prediction Interval. Something that data scientists use that is a bit broader than a Confidence Interval. The percentages for the variants is based on samples of COVID-19 tests that are mostly "convenience samples" so a true confidence interval can't be estimated. Bottom line is that the evidence is pretty clear that Delta became the dominant variant in the U.S. by early July, if not a little sooner in some places with a lot of community spread.

Prediction Interval, the wider sister of Confidence Interval | DataScience+

datascienceplus.com

 

[MarzNC]

I'm not abandoning the vax just assuming that at some point, like the flu vax, there will be a new version, modified to account for Delta or other variants. True or false?

Yes, it's true there will be modified vaccines for COVID-19 at some point.

There are Phase 1/2 studies in progress for a new version of Pfizer and Moderna that were adjusted to deal with known variants. Using the mRNA approach means that modifying a vaccine is a much faster process. Of course, the clinical trials process once a vaccine candidate is ready for careful testing in humans will take just as long as necessary based on approved statistical analysis plans for safety and efficacy.

I saw a video by a UK physician yesterday where he complained that reports about the approval of Pfizer didn't change for efficacy for months. He obviously has no idea that efficacy results must be calculated based on a pre-designed and approved statistical analysis plan. You can't just run a stat analysis any time you want. The underlying assumptions get violated and then the statistical results become invalid. Safety data gets updated as followup continues for clinical trial subjects, as well as information for vaccinated people after release to the public. It was quite clear he has no clue what biostaticians due who work for a regulatory agency that approves medications. The stories my grad school classmates had to tell about working with physicians in the Consulting Lab were pretty funny . . . to a statistician.

 

[MarzNC]

I got sucked down the ivermectin rabbit hole last night on Facebook, wow.

For what it's worth, there are different versions of ivermectin. Some dosages are designed for horses or dogs. Needless to saw, a horse needs a LOT more of any medication that is also used for a human. A horse weighs 900-2000 lbs.

Medication dosage is usually based more on weight than any other factor. That's why clinical studies for children are usually done well after the dosage for adults has been around for a while. Also why the ongoing studies for COVID-19 vaccines in younger children are broken down into multiple age groups, not just 0-11. I don't have a medical background, but being petite I took the child dose for over-the-counter medications for years after I was considered an adult. For the rare times I needed aspirin, I used children's aspirin because it was easier to adjust the dose down. Pill cutters were that common 20-30 years ago.

Here's a what a Ski Diva who is a physician had to say in response to a mutual FB Friend who was making fun of people using ivermectin. My immunologist ski buddy pays attention to Facebook.

Posted on Facebook in late August 2021 by a physician who is over 65
"Ivermectin has a boatload of science behind it for numerous human medical conditions, and it's gaining data in treatment of COVID. Just like lisinopril was developed for treatment of high blood pressure, now it's used to reverse cardiomyopathy, keep diabetics off dialysis, and even shows potential for a COVID treatment. Can't write ivermection off just yet. The main problem with it is it's a dirt cheap generic that Big Pharma can't control, so less research will be done on it."

 

[Sbob]

For what it's worth, there are different versions of ivermectin. Some dosages are designed for horses or dogs. Needless to saw, a horse needs a LOT more of any medication that is also used for a human. A horse weighs 900-2000 lbs.

Medication dosage is usually based more on weight than any other factor. That's why clinical studies for children are usually done well after the dosage for adults has been around for a while. Also why the ongoing studies for COVID-19 vaccines in younger children are broken down into multiple age groups, not just 0-11. I don't have a medical background, but being petite I took the child dose for over-the-counter medications for years after I was considered an adult. For the rare times I needed aspirin, I used children's aspirin because it was easier to adjust the dose down. Pill cutters were that common 20-30 years ago.

Here's a what a Ski Diva who is a physician had to say in response to a mutual FB Friend who was making fun of people using ivermectin. My immunologist ski buddy pays attention to Facebook.

Posted on Facebook in late August 2021 by a physician who is over 65
"Ivermectin has a boatload of science behind it for numerous human medical conditions, and it's gaining data in treatment of COVID. Just like lisinopril was developed for treatment of high blood pressure, now it's used to reverse cardiomyopathy, keep diabetics off dialysis, and even shows potential for a COVID treatment. Can't write ivermection off just yet. The main problem with it is it's a dirt cheap generic that Big Pharma can't control, so less research will be done on https://journals.lww.com/americanth...mectin_for_prevention_and_treatment_of.7.aspx

Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19... : American Journal of Therapeutics

mortality, in secondary outcomes, and in chemoprophylaxis, among people with, or at high risk of, COVID-19 infection. Data sources: We searched bibliographic databases up to April 25, 2021. Two review authors sifted for studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Meta-analyses were...

journals.lww.com

Long read and I’m not a scientist but my takeaway it’s 62% effective?

 

[Harvey]

Good question. It's Prediction Interval. Something that data scientists use that is a bit broader than a Confidence Interval. The percentages for the variants is based on samples of COVID-19 tests that are mostly "convenience samples" so a true confidence interval can't be estimated. Bottom line is that the evidence is pretty clear that Delta became the dominant variant in the U.S. by early July, if not a little sooner in some places with a lot of community spread.

Prediction Interval, the wider sister of Confidence Interval | DataScience+

datascienceplus.com

So why is that one Delta variant so much higher than everything else?

 

[MarzNC]

There’s nothing natural about the new mRNA vaccines, just sayin. Other than humans coming up with the tech and controlling the robots manufacturing them for mass production.

That could be said about any medical research that didn't start until technology allowed looking at DNA or poking around a knee from the inside without having to make a huge incision to fix an ACL or badly damaged meniscus.

Moderna was found in 2010. By then mRNA research had been around since the 1990s.

The story of mRNA: How a once-dismissed idea became a leading technology in the Covid vaccine race

The story of mRNA began is a tale of personal perseverance, eureka moments in the lab, soaring expectations — and an unprecedented flow of cash in biotech.

www.statnews.com

 

[MarzNC]

Gotta go . . . will answer the other questions later.