The New Normal

[CNY Skier]

I’m the first guy to say that everybody‘s entitled to their own POV and that we should never get locked in to one way of looking at things, that we should always be on the lookout for confirmation bias and group think but that article actually says in it:

“All that said, some facts are well established at this point. Vaccinated people infected with the virus are much less likely to need to go to the hospital, much less likely to need intubation and much less likely to die from the illness. There’s no doubt that vaccines provide significant protection.”

Did you not read the whole thing or what?

(Respectively, to all - Of course I read it!)
My point is that the media is following a predictable pattern here...where there's smoke there's fire. Two months ago you would have never seen an article like this in major media. In a few weeks there will be another headline that will yield ground on the "covid shots are great" narrative.

“All that said, some facts are well established at this point. Vaccinated people infected with the virus are much less likely to need to go to the hospital, much less likely to need intubation and much less likely to die from the illness. There’s no doubt that vaccines provide significant protection.”

Unless you live in Israel..."What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government." https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta

Israel has incredible transparency concerning covid data. I'm having trouble finding that level of transparency in the US data.

Could it be that these vaccines just aren't that effective? From what I can tell they do little or nothing to stop the virus from spreading. I don't recall a vaccine in my lifetime (55+) that required a booster within the first year or being on the market. There's a reason that the flu shot is call a "shot"...does not imply that it is a vaccine in any manner. These covid shots seem to be falling into the same category. Unfortunately, the long term effects (if any) of these shots is yet to be known.

 

[Tjf1967]

(Respectively, to all - Of course I read it!)
My point is that the media is following a predictable pattern here...where there's smoke there's fire. Two months ago you would have never seen an article like this in major media. In a few weeks there will be another headline that will yield ground on the "covid shots are great" narrative.

“All that said, some facts are well established at this point. Vaccinated people infected with the virus are much less likely to need to go to the hospital, much less likely to need intubation and much less likely to die from the illness. There’s no doubt that vaccines provide significant protection.”

Unless you live in Israel..."What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government." https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta

Israel has incredible transparency concerning covid data. I'm having trouble finding that level of transparency in the US data.

Could it be that these vaccines just aren't that effective? From what I can tell they do little or nothing to stop the virus from spreading. I don't recall a vaccine in my lifetime (55+) that required a booster within the first year or being on the market. There's a reason that the flu shot is call a "shot"...does not imply that it is a vaccine in any manner. These covid shots seem to be falling into the same category. Unfortunately, the long term effects (if any) of these shots is yet to be known.

514 out of 9 million. Is miniscule. The large percentage you present are very deceptive. Here is the deal. I can tolerate people who refuse to get the shots. I hope it's not too much to ask that people who won't get the shot social distance and wear. a mask when in crowds. Fair?

 

[Harvey]

Does anyone dispute that:

Vaccines that were developed for alpha are less effective on Delta?
Delta is dominant because the vaccination for Alpha is far from complete?

No doubt its a game of whack-a-mole. And the chances of success against Delta and other variants go down if vaccine is in short supply or people won't get vaxxed. Time to start over, create a Delta vax and try to get it into 90%.

I'm with TJ. If you are antivax wear a mask.

 

[Brownski]

I believe this is what Marz was refering to before when she was talking about denominators. When close to everybody is vaccinated a larger percentage of the cases will naturally be “breakthroughs”.

 

[MarzNC]

Does anyone dispute that:

Vaccines that were developed for alpha are less effective on Delta?
Delta is dominant because the vaccination for Alpha is far from complete?

No doubt its a game of whack-a-mole. And the chances of success against Delta and other variants go down if vaccine is in short supply or people won't get vaxxed. Time to start over, create a Delta vax and try to get it into 90%.

I'm with TJ. If you are antivax wear a mask.

The clinical trials done in 2020 happened in multiple countries. In some trials Alpha wasn't even around that much. In others, the original strain and then Alpha were out in the general population during the study period. The vaccines developed in the first half of 2020 for Phase 1/2 trials were designed to induce an immune reaction to the original strain, not Alpha.

Delta has become dominant because it's far more transmissible than Alpha or any other variant. Has little to do with vaccination rollout, which has varied a great deal not only in the U.S. but all around the world.

Did I post the CDC webpage about variants in this thread? Here's how the chart looked a week ago. VOI=Variant of Interest, VOC=Variant of Concern. There have been a few news reports about Lambda, which came from S. America. Lambda is a VOI, not a VOC.

 

[MarzNC]

No doubt its a game of whack-a-mole. And the chances of success against Delta and other variants go down if vaccine is in short supply or people won't get vaxxed. Time to start over, create a Delta vax and try to get it into 90%.

Don't think there is any reason to abandon the existing vaccine based on what I'm hearing from friends who know a lot more about the human immune system than I want to know. After high school biology I was done with that sort of science class. Many of the news reports and even some of the research articles are focused on a particular kind of antibody. I gather there are a lot more elements to a robust immune reaction to a particular virus like SARS-CoV-2.

To get a sense of why T-cells are important when considering variants, can start with these links.

T-cells | Ask A Biologist

back to comicT-Cells[caption align="right"][/caption]T-cells are a type of white blood cell that work with macrophages. Unlike macrophages that can attack any invading cell or virus, each T-cell can fight only one type of virus. You might think this means macrophages are stronger than T-cells...

askabiologist.asu.edu

February 12, 2021

How ‘killer’ T cells could boost COVID immunity in face of new variants

In the race against emerging coronavirus variants, researchers are looking beyond antibodies for clues to lasting protection from COVID-19.

www.nature.com

July 1, 2021, Science
Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines prime T cells to fight SARS-CoV-2 variants, study finds
Researchers highlight the importance of T cell cross reactivity in stopping severe COVID-19 cases

Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines prime T cells to fight SARS-CoV-2 variants, study finds

Researchers have found that T cells from people who have recovered from COVID-19 or received the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are still able to recognize several concerning SARS-CoV-2 variants.

www.sciencedaily.com

 

[wonderpony]

Horses who travel off the farm get vaccinated every six months for flu/rhino (respiratory diseases). Maybe it's not such a stretch that humans will need to be vaccinated every six months for a respiratory disease, unless you don't go anywhere.

 

[Milo Maltbie]

I hope it's not too much to ask that people who won't get the shot social distance and wear. a mask when in crowds. Fair?

No.

If you aren't vaccinated, don't go to crowded indoor spaces, don't serve in the military, don't work in a hospital and, most of all, don't send your kid to school with my granddaughter.

I don't even understand why that's controversial. I threw a student out of my classroom for not being vaxxed for hepatitus 25 years ago, and I was happy to do it.

mm

 

[Milo Maltbie]

I don't recall a vaccine in my lifetime (55+) that required a booster within the first year or being on the market... Unfortunately, the long term effects (if any) of these shots is yet to be known.

WTF? You're 55 and you're worried about the long term? I can tell you the long term. You're in the third quarter. If you get vaccinated, your health is gonna suck compared to what it was when you were in your 30s. If you don't get vaxxed, it's still gonna suck and maybe you end up in the ICU on a ventilator.

And why put vaccine in quotes? Is that some kind of extreme vaccine denialism by denying that vaccines are in fact vaccines? Does that make you think you are smarter than the average ignorant anti-vaxxer? Changing what you name something doesn't change its effectiveness, which so far these vaccines have proven to be the best thing we have.

mm

 

[sibhusky]

The shingles shot requires two doses weeks apart.

The pneumonia shot I got required two doses a year apart.

Many of my kid's childhood vaccines were multiple doses as well.

If I think back in time many other vaccines required two doses as well, but these I remember because I've gotten them recently.

I'm actually hard put to think of single dose vaccines. Heck my dog gets things annually.

Flu shots are vaccines. Why would you even think otherwise?