Spring Weather 2024
- Thread starter Campgottagopee
- Start date
saratogahalfday
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- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...Deep full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs
the central Great Lakes into the southern Appalachian Mtns wl slowly
shift eastward, while sfc boundary becomes stationary along the East
Coast. Secondary s/w energy is progged to dive southward and develop
low pres along the boundary on Thurs, while mid/upper lvl trof axis
becomes negatively tilted. The timing of sfc low pres and associated
strength, along with how quickly mid/upper lvl trof becomes
negatively tilted wl have greatly influence our wx. Latest GFS/ECMWF
and CMC all show some sort of coastal sfc low pres track
east/southeast of the 40/70 benchmark, but several ensemble members
of the ECMWF and GFS show potential for a western track and
spreading greater precip back into the eastern Dacks/CPV late week.
Given the magnitude and potential for a negatively tilted trof,
latest trends in guidance wl need to be watched closely for the
potential of greater impacts acrs our cwa. Thermal profiles suggest
ptype would depend upon elevation. For now have continued with chc
pops east/central cwa with schc northern NY. Given the large spread
in guidance, especially the ensemble data, I would anticipate
additional tweaks needed to the fcst over the next couple of days.
As we head into next week, guidance is in relatively good agreement
with development of mid/upper trof and cooling temps associated with
northwest flow. This would have the potential for some upslope
precip, probably in the form of snow showers for the mtns. Temps
cool back into the upper 20s summits to lower/mid 40s valleys by
next weekend.
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...Deep full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs
the central Great Lakes into the southern Appalachian Mtns wl slowly
shift eastward, while sfc boundary becomes stationary along the East
Coast. Secondary s/w energy is progged to dive southward and develop
low pres along the boundary on Thurs, while mid/upper lvl trof axis
becomes negatively tilted. The timing of sfc low pres and associated
strength, along with how quickly mid/upper lvl trof becomes
negatively tilted wl have greatly influence our wx. Latest GFS/ECMWF
and CMC all show some sort of coastal sfc low pres track
east/southeast of the 40/70 benchmark, but several ensemble members
of the ECMWF and GFS show potential for a western track and
spreading greater precip back into the eastern Dacks/CPV late week.
Given the magnitude and potential for a negatively tilted trof,
latest trends in guidance wl need to be watched closely for the
potential of greater impacts acrs our cwa. Thermal profiles suggest
ptype would depend upon elevation. For now have continued with chc
pops east/central cwa with schc northern NY. Given the large spread
in guidance, especially the ensemble data, I would anticipate
additional tweaks needed to the fcst over the next couple of days.
As we head into next week, guidance is in relatively good agreement
with development of mid/upper trof and cooling temps associated with
northwest flow. This would have the potential for some upslope
precip, probably in the form of snow showers for the mtns. Temps
cool back into the upper 20s summits to lower/mid 40s valleys by
next weekend.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Peter Minde
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 19, 2020
I was just checking the webcam to see if a groomer was out early to tidy the snow.
T'ain’t a groomer.
