Spring Weather 2024

In between exit 16 and 15 southbound on the Thruway I had a Cross Trek try to make a pass on me only to break traction and do a 540 into the median hitting the guard rail and spinning out of control for a fairly impressive distance. It felt like I was in a war zone, dirt was getting flung up from the median hitting my windshield. Even with today being clear and sunny it was enough to make me not want to drive anywhere today. Reminds me of a saying a former Skip Barber instructor used to tell me, "there is no such thing as all season tires."
All wheel drive can be bombproof, but it ain't idiot proof. On my way south, dude in an Audi SUV passed me going 65 with all this snow on the road. Hearkening back to the early days of SUVs where people thought they were invincible.
 
Perfect night for a full moon.
Who turned on the light?
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So @saratogahalfday or anyone...

Who's calling winter over now? GFS is teasing again? Temps look seasonable, which I grant is not that cold in April.

@DomB do you now understand the Harv GFS 240 Method?
 
So @saratogahalfday or anyone...

Who's calling winter over now? GFS is teasing again? Temps look seasonable, which I grant is not that cold in April.

@DomB do you now understand the Harv GFS 240 Method?
Honestly, no, I just keep asking the same question. Which is weird, I am reasonably intelligent but I have a mental block or something going on there.
 
The GFS 240 Method - When you need to plan well in advance for time off from work. It's for road warriors, locals don't need it.

ALL WINTER, don't schedule any meetings for Monday or Friday (or Thursday PM) to give yourself max flexibility. Try not to have meetings on Tuesday am where you have to be coherent. If forced to commit, learn to use the phrase "Wednesdays are generally best for me."

Make sure you use the GFS ACCUMULATION view - all the snow between now and 240 hours.

Once you see 2 or 3 runs in a row with significant snow in the 240, the look at the shorter durations, to try to see more precisely when the snow will fall. GFS has 4 runs a day — 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z. Rely on the 0z and 12z. The 6z and 18z are less useful or accurate. (Ask @jasonwx why, not sure).

This page has five maps at the bottom

GFS 48
GFS 96
GFS 144
GFS 192
GFS 240

The bigger the predicted snowfall, the more likely some measurable snow will fall.

Once you are within 5 days, start asking for time off. By the time you get into the GFS 48 or 96, there should be some kind of fuss and prognostication in the weather thread!

If the storm flakes out, just show up at work and act like nothing ever happened.

Maybe I'll do a blog post on it.
 
The GFS 240 Method - When you need to plan for well in advance for time off from work. It's for road warriors, locals don't need it.

ALL WINTER, don't schedule any meetings for Monday or Friday (or Thursday PM) to give yourself max flexibility.

Make sure you use the GFS ACCUMULATION view - all the snow between now and 240 hours.

Once you see 2 or 3 runs in a row with significant snow in the 240, the looks at the shorter durations, to try to see more precisely when the snow will fall. GFS has 4 runs a day — 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z. Rely on the 0z and 12z. The 6z and 18z are less useful or accurate. (Ask @jasonwx why, not sure).

This page has five maps at the bottom

GFS 48
GFS 96
GFS 144
GFS 192
GFS 240

The bigger the predicted snowfall, the more likely some measurable snow will fall.

Once you are within 5 days, start asking for time off.

If the storm flakes out, just show up at work and act like nothing ever happened.
Ya still get to do all that when yer retired but the work stuff.
 
We have had numerous surprise weekend snows this winter, when I couldn't call in on a Monday morning. This also included the time that I got 10 inches of LE the day before classes started for the semester. :mad:

The one time I did plan ahead on the off chance that we would get snow, the roads and the wind were horrible. :p
 
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