Skiing's Future

[MC2]

I also read a year or two ago how we were going to get more snow because of the increased water vapor and higher seas, guess that didn't happen

The east might get more precipitation as a result of climate change.

Unfortunately, the temps will be too high for snow most years in the future.

 

[Ripitz]

We go through these extended periods.

Haha, extended is right.

 

[jasonwx]

Haha, extended is right.

This not about climate change. It’s more about how winters in the north east are inconsistent.

 

[MC2]

This not about climate change. It’s more about how winters in the north east are inconsistent.

Wow, one data point (total snowfall)?

What about my points (higher temps in between snowfall events, less favorable windows for snowmaking, rain events after snowfall events, etc.).

A winter isn’t measured by the “how much snow did Albany, NY receive?” metric

 

[Peter Minde]

My entirely unscientific observation: I've gone to Lake Placid between Christmas and New Year's for prolly 35 years. Back in the day, one took for granted that Mt van Ho would be 100% open. That's changed over time, and the last 10 years have been disastrous, to say the least. Like, I brought running shoes because we couldn't ski. Without machine-made snow, the Ho wouldn't have been open at all the last 3 years at that time.

La Niña or no La Niña, climate change is real.

 

[Campgottagopee]

Don’t you guys feel like that, if we do get a few cold or snowy years, those will be the anomaly, not the warm years (which we all should start accepting as “normal” now)?

No, I don't think so. Winters will be back.

 

[TheGreatAbyss]

Not a climatologist so please don't come after me, but to mc2's point that doesn't seem like a good metric. Climate change can put more moisture and energy in the atmosphere, so when it does snow we might get some monsters, but then be 50f everyday in between.

Average temp seems like a better metric which is trending up.

 

[riverc0il]

Wow, one data point (total snowfall)?

What about my points (higher temps in between snowfall events, less favorable windows for snowmaking, rain events after snowfall events, etc.).

A winter isn’t measured by the “how much snow did Albany, NY receive?” metric

This is spot on. The northeast could theoretically have the same annual snowfall but worse winters overall if that snowfall is combined into a few large events in between extended periods of warmth, rain, and other adverse weather conditions (which is what we have this season, two big storms and not much else with lots of rain and warmer periods followed by bitter cold without storms).

Consistent cold and small storms spread out throughout the season usually makes for a better season overall and more consistent conditions, especially if accompanied by limited warm ups and rain.

And, I will echo that how much snow Albany received has nothing to do with how much snow the higher peaks receive. If we are going to use a snowfall metric, Mansfield is probably the best option.

I think it is too early to draw definite conclusions regarding how climate change is impacting the northeast. The region has always had a lot of variability between seasons. At this point, we are either in an abnormally bad and statistically unlikely stretch of years, or we are seeing the beginnings of the new normal (which seems more likely to me, given the conclusive body of knowledge regarding the impacts of climate change).

But, my qualitative opinion is that snow conditions are less consistent and seasons have been trending worse overall during the past ten years or so. The best years aren't as good as they used to be, the worst years are worse than they used to be, and seasons are not as consistently cold as they used to be.

 

[raisingarizona]

I’m done with the arguing over if it’s real or not.

I ain’t got no time or energy for that.

The data is there. The science is the best we’ve got. Here in the west the affects are undeniable and the landscape is rapidly being altered and mostly by human activity along with drought conditions and fire.

In the meantime we are having an epic season here in Aridzona during a La Niña year! Who would’ve thunk? Weird.

 

[Andy_ROC]

It's pretty easy to see where this is going. I could plot the data back to the 1870's and the rise is even more dramatic, but then there are confounding factors such as urban heat dome which didn't really exist until the 1900's in Rochester.

I haven't plotted frost days, or night time lows yet, but I'd expect it to be equally warmer across the decades.
Anyone trying to justify that things are normal and "we've always had fluctuations like this" just aren't looking at or refuse to look at the data.

If anyone wants to plot the data for another region feel free to pull it from the NWS Nowdata. You just have to copy and paste into Excel.