Skiing's Future

[raisingarizona]

From the article:

I dunno, that seems like a really extreme projection. Perhaps they are assuming all natural snowfall and not accounting for snow making?

There is a massive temperature difference between RI and CT ski areas (which still make it work today) and northern NH, VT, and ME ski areas. Low temps between NoVT to CT in the valleys are often 10+ degrees (and even more variance in the deep winter).

Average temperatures would need to increase big time to make snow making unavailable in northern New England by the end of the century. If temperatures increased that much and that rapidly, skiing would be the least of our concerns, life as we know it on Earth would be in jeopardy.

I can definitely see natural snow viability becoming a big problem in southern and central New England by the end of the century. Heck, it already is an issue, but not causing wide spread failures (yet).

Yeah, it seems like a lot of people are skirting the reality of these predictions. I feel the same that if they're close to being correct than there's WAY bigger problems than being able to go skiing.

It seems to me that the only areas that could possibly hold viable ski resorts would be the coldest and highest regions so probably the Rocky Mountains. I don't think that either New England or the Sierra Mountains are going to be able to sustain real ski area businesses by the turn of the century. So there will be skiing! But not for most of us. If shit doesn't go full on post apocalyptic Mad Max like then it would only be for those that could afford it and in a country that goes from 523 ski areas down to say.....15 it's going to be expensive, like real freaking expensive.

 

[MarzNC]

Times are a changing.

Climate & skiing

From retreating snow elevations to rain-soaked powder, warming due to human-caused climate change will radically transform U.S. skiing over the remainder of the twenty-first century.

www.climate.gov

Clearly focused on mountains that have been mostly natural snow. Doesn't even consider the ski resorts in North Carolina where 100% snowmaking was the only way to have a viable snowsports business after the 1970s. Report says skiing starts in Virginia and points north on the east coast. NC mountains get as much or more natural snow as the resorts in Virginia.

 

[Harvey]

freaking expensive

And a much smaller industry.

Snowmaking power would have to be increased so that when there is a window, you can go nuts. Right now Hunter can go from zero to 100% in about 9 days. (Not saying they do anymore, but they could.) They'd probably have to reduce that number. And Hunter probably has the most snowmaking (capacity) per acre of any ski area in the east.

Skiing on snowmaking is not the same sport, spring aside, not nearly as much fun IMO, but it does allow you to be in the game if it does snow.

 

[TheGreatAbyss]

The HKD guns at Belle are incredible, and I was blown away with the sheer quantity, speed, and also quality of the snow that they were able to lay down last early season despite how marginal the temps were. As long as temps dip below freezing snowmaking can continue to sustain the ski industry in NE. Whether or not it's profitable to have to blow an entire mountain every night is another question.

The industry and the number of resorts may shrink here in NE, but Canada's great white north is a huge undeveloped area with big cold mountains. Skiing may not exist where we live today but it will exist somwhere:

 

[MarzNC]

Whether or not it's profitable to have to blow an entire mountain every night is another question.

Depends on the size of the mountain. Also makes a big difference if there is also revenue generating activities during the "green season," meaning anytime the lifts aren't running for snowsports. The increasing number of mountains with mountain biking will make it possible for more of them to stay in business during the winter in spite of the added costs of snowmaking.

Massanutten in northern VA is adding trails on the upper mountain. The resort has been around for 50 years, with skiing as a core activity from the start in the early 1970s. A lift ticket on weekends has been over $80 for years . . . for groomed runs based on 100% snowmaking coverage that take no more than 5 minutes for an intermediate to finish. A season pass has been around $450, with a value pass (Sun-Fri plus Sat night) for just under $300. Average annual snowfall is around 25 inches. Massanutten is not going away any time soon. Finding a room or condo at the resort is easy in the winter even at short notice but hard in the summer time without planning months in advance. Very different approach to the business than in the northeast or Rockies. Has more in common with resorts in the midwest like Boyne Mountain that also started with 100% snowmaking.

Snowmaking power would have to be increased so that when there is a window, you can go nuts.

Yep. Massanutten built a 2.5 mile pipeline a few years ago because they were running out of water when the temps were good for daytime snowmaking for 2-4 days. That kind of long cold snap didn't use to happen. Also important for a 1-2 day window for resurfacing all the trails after the inevitable thaw(s) in Jan and Feb. Once water was essentially unlimited, major money was put into adding pumps and more automated snowguns. Many of the new snowguns are big fan guns. The season starts mid-Dec and usually ends in early March, with potentially a bonus weekend or two.

 

[raisingarizona]

Not ski related but very interesting.

Hurricane risk models 'aren’t capturing what’s happening': Former FEMA director

Florida’s insurance market was depleted long before Hurricane Ian made landfall, with six insurers deemed insolvent this year alone. The aftermath of the most powerful storm to hit Southern Florida is expected to exacerbate the slow moving crisis further, leaving millions of residents in the...

www.yahoo.com

 

[jasonwx]

Not ski related but very interesting.

Hurricane risk models 'aren’t capturing what’s happening': Former FEMA director

Florida’s insurance market was depleted long before Hurricane Ian made landfall, with six insurers deemed insolvent this year alone. The aftermath of the most powerful storm to hit Southern Florida is expected to exacerbate the slow moving crisis further, leaving millions of residents in the...

www.yahoo.com

First of all this was not the strongest storm to hit southern fla
Andrew was stronger.
If you live on the coast ya gonna get wet.

 

[Green light]

First of all this was not the strongest storm to hit southern fla
Andrew was stronger.
If you live on the coast ya gonna get wet.

I’m on Siesta Key now. Probably 40 miles as the crow flies from landfall. We got very lucky.
The storm took a heavy right hand turn between 2am and 5am the morning it hit. Before that turn it was headed directly at us. No storm surge here, lots of tree debris and fencing down here. Rode my bicycle to down below Venice today. Started to see much more damage there. Lots of roofs off, runoff has eroded banks and filled in parts of the Intercoastal Waterway in places. Still major flooding inland that is flowing out of the Myakka and Peace rivers. So much so that the water clarity in the Gulf is being affected. They are showing on the news the coastal devastation. The inland devastation is just as bad.

 

[raisingarizona]

Damage and storm severity wasn’t my big take away from the article. The most interesting aspect to me is how insurance companies are going to fail as more and more natural disasters occur.

Climate change impacts are here and now.

 

[Harvey]

I think the insurance companies will be an important part of the solution.

When the true cost of expensive behavior is levied, things change.