Poll: The Impact of the Epic Pass

[tirolski]

Big Bear is nice.

Big bear received 11 feet of snow since February 22nd.

 

[MC2]

Regardless of the hype, skier visits are basically flat over the last 10 or 20 years (someone post the chart). .

Time to adjust your thinking?

https://nsaa.org/webdocs/media_public/press/2022-23/2023_May_SkierVisits.pdf

 

[Harvey]

64.7 is a big jump, not insignificant.

Would like to dig into the demos. How are we doing with the young skiers/riders?

ETA:

U.S. Ski Areas Set New Record for Skier Visits

SAM Magazine—Lakewood, Colo., May 9, 2023—U.S. ski areas recorded record visitation for the 2022-23 season with a total of 64.7 million skier visits, accor

www.saminfo.com

Nice to see the dramatic increase in pay.

Roll call... who thinks this represents a significant turn around for the industry? Or just a good snow year?

 

[TonyC]

64.7 is a very big jump for a new record. I can't say I'm surprised because last year (which was well below average in snowfall) surpassed (barely) the prior record high seasons of 2007-08 and 2010-11, both of which were outstanding snow years.

2022-23 looks very good on overall snowfall vs. average, but it was not so much an across the board great year like 2007-08 and 2010-11. Utah and California were off the charts this year, and adjoining states Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Arizona, and western Colorado were very good. Front Range Colorado, Montana, Washington and all of western Canada were no better than average. And the Northeast, which was excellent in 2007-08 and average in 2010-11, was distinctly below average this year.

The overall skier visit numbers seem to imply that the Epic Pass by itself didn't move the numbers that much, but Epic's ongoing growth (spurred by price cut a year ago) plus Ikon combined have. 2018-19, first year of the Ikon, was the point at which we started to hear jaded locals start complaining about excessive crowds. The 59.3 million visits in 2018-19 were the highest since 2010-11. While I ascribed that at the time as mostly due to being a good snow year in a decade with many subpar ones, 2016-17 was as good and skier visits were only 54.8 million.

These press releases come from the Kottke Report. Later in the summer there are supplemental economic and demographic reports. Unfortunately NSAA has become stingier about distributing any of these detail reports, including the preliminary one from which the current press release is based. 2020 was the last year I got one. Maybe Harvey has better connections than I do to get some of the detail info.

I have demographic info from 1998, 2009 and 2019. Skiers born between 1944 and 1963 comprised 37.6% of 1998 skier visits, 27.8% in 2009 and 16.3% in 2019. So for those who think there's an imminent collapse of skier visits as baby boomers age out, the reality is that most of that aging out has already happened.

 

[Harvey]

Thanks Tony. Your analysis certainly makes it seem real.

Unfortunately NSAA has become stingier about distributing any of these detail reports, including the preliminary one from which the current press release is based. 2020 was the last year I got one. Maybe Harvey has better connections than I do to get some of the detail info.

I can't get this stuff. I asked Stuart. He said the same thing you did, no can do.

I wonder why they don't want to share? Do they charge for it?

 

[tirolski]

Skiers born between 1944 and 1963 comprised 37.6% of 1998 skier visits, 27.8% in 2009 and 16.3% in 2019. So for those who think there's an imminent collapse of skier visits as baby boomers age out, the reality is that most of that aging out has already happened.

I ain’t a quitter. Got more skiing in this year than most years. All nice days in TheUpState.

 

[rfreeman]

My guess is there are more ski days as there are more pass holders and if you have a pass you ski more, as an additional ski day makes for better pass value rather than additional lift ticket expense.

I doubt there are more skiers.

 

[Brownski]

My guess is there are more ski days as there are more pass holders and if you have a pass you ski more, as an additional ski day makes for better pass value rather than additional lift ticket expense.

I doubt there are more skiers.

Why do you say that? Not disputing it since I have no idea- just curious what your reasoning is.

 

[tirolski]

Why do you say that? Not disputing it since I have no idea- just curious what your reasoning is.

Skier visits is different than the number of skiers for starters.

 

[Brownski]

I’m aware of that. I was wondering if there is some empirical evidence or data to suggest the conclusion or just a gut feeling