Market Philosophy

[Peter Minde]

“Just in time” is ruining multiple businesses already and contributing to all these shortages we’ve seen the last couple years. Don’t encourage it

@Brownski, last year I couldn't get Veuve Clicquot for 6 weeks in August and September. And then inventory was sketchy all through the holidays. I'm sure you've got stories like that.

 

[tirolski]

Rental car companies would buy directly from the manufacture, or fleet deals as they call it. There is such a demand from dealers for inventory that it will be years and years, if ever, fleet deals become a thing again. Now rental car companies are having to buy at dealer auctions and they are paying the moon ++++ for their cars. They're so desperate that I get calls daily from them asking me to sell them inventory. Uh, that's a hard no. Their remarketing departments are now losing money vs making money. Hertz, Avis, and Enterprise are the ones currently driving used car prices to insane levels. I watch it every day and laugh.

ORDA had Avis' head honcho running their board of directors for a bit.
One of my bosses bought a Caddy from Avis’ fleet.
We called it The Avis-Devile.

 

[Brownski]

I'm sure you've got stories like that.

Too many. It’s beyond ridiculous. I’m a 100% commission guy and the MBAs that are supposed to get the shit to my warehouse are useless. The explanations are contradictory and disingenuous. “Beyond our control” “really smart people working in it” It’s very frustrating

 

[x10003q]

“Just in time” is ruining multiple businesses already and contributing to all these shortages we’ve seen the last couple years. Don’t encourage it

Just in time inventory control has been around for over 70 years with Toyota getting credit for really developing it in the 1970s. It has made manufacturing cheaper and more efficient.

 

[Brownski]

Good for Toyota. We don’t manufacture cars

 

[Endoftheline]

If you don't want it let me know --- I'll buy it

I know several people who have either bought their vehicles at the end of their lease and kept them, or bought it and then sold at a big profit. Or who bought then traded in, for much more than they paid at the end of the lease. Good deal if you can afford to do something like that.

 

[x10003q]

Good for Toyota. We don’t manufacture cars

Interesting take since every manufacturer in the world strives to have JIT systems.

 

[Harvey]

Just in time inventory control has been around for over 70 years with Toyota getting credit for really developing it in the 1970s. It has made manufacturing cheaper and more efficient.

Agree. Just-in-time exists because if you don't have a pandemic or other disrupting event, it's more profitable.

When something has worked for a long time, and then no longer does, it's reasonable to expect the transition to take a while.

The 911 attack was like that. Different from any thing before it, it set off major changes in the way we fly.

I could see just-in-time coming back if we go a few decades without an interruption.

 

[tirolski]

. people are making good money. our local steak house was packed last Wednesday, that segment of the economy is not missing a beat. i am not opening my monthly financial statements. to depressing. this is my 3rd or 4th crash and my stocks are worth more now then ever. this too shall pass.

Steak dinner economics.

 

[Harvey]

Well, I didn't see that coming.

I guess the day, week, quarter, year isn't over yet.