Fall Weather 2021

This might be the biggest slap in the face yet for you snow lovers


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-040215-
/O.CON.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM HST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times,
with periods of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning
that is also in effect.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause
significant drifting of snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.
 
NWS ALY .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Tue Night into Wednesday...A lot of uncertainty exists into the mid
week period for a snow or a mixed pcpn event. A positively-tilted
longwave trough sets up over the MS River Valley and the western
Great Lakes Region. Multiple short-waves in the southwest flow
aloft will make a run at the forecast area. The first may bring
some light snow into the region late Tue night with sufficiently
cold enough air in place. We kept a chance of snow in here. The
guidance spreads a part for Wed, as the 00Z GFS and some of its
Ensemble members trend an open coastal wave further north towards
Long Island and southeast New England. The 00Z CMC is a bit further
south, and the latest 00Z ECMWF is much further south with little
impact. We tried to stay close to the NBM/WPC with high chance and
likely PoPs for Wed-Wed night. The degree of impact is uncertain
with a lot of spread in the medium range guidance and Ensembles. A
light snow event looks likely and if enough cold air remains in
place the northern most zones may get a moderate snow event, but
again confidence is low. We stuck with a a rain/snow scenario but a
mix with some sleet/freezing rain is also possible, if the main wave
tracks north or just south or over Long Island.
 
Watching Wednesday Storm Potential
Happy Sunday, Hudson Valley... we hope everyone is having a nice weekend. For several days we've been monitoring a wave of low pressure that will follow our Monday rain storm. That wave of energy will ride along the boundary left behind by our Monday storm system... and the potential exists for that low pressure to intensify and bring a period of snow to parts of the Northeast, including the Hudson Valley, on Wednesday.
Summary:
- Period of snow possible on Wednesday
- Impacts on Hudson Valley very uncertain at this time
- Most likely a light snow event, but approximately 30% chance of significant snow The key to the forecast for Wednesday is the position of the left over frontal boundary from Monday. After the front moves through our area on Monday night, it will stall out over the Mid Atlantic region. The low pressure that follows on Wednesday will move along that boundary. The European and Canadian models in the past 36 hours have focused in on the idea that the boundary is further south, and the low pressure develops as it moves out to sea. That solution would give us a period of light snow showers, that could amount to a dusting to 2 inches at most. It would be a nuisance event with some slick spots on the roads. The GFS model has identified the possibility of the boundary being a touch further north. This would cause the storm to hug the coast a bit more, and intensifying as it moves up the coast. This scenario would bring a period of moderate snow to the Hudson Valley, and in which case could bring 6" of snow to our area. If you've heard rumors and rumblings about a 'big snowstorm' on Wednesday... you have the GFS model to thank for that
At this point, it really is a bit of a toss up with how this unfolds. The reason is that as we mentioned, this hinges on what happens with tomorrow's rain event. How that frontal binary stalls out on Tuesday, will go a long way into determining whether we see some light snow showers... or our 1st snowstorm of the season on Wednesday .With this event still 4 days away, Our next update on this will be Sunday evening. www.hudsonvalleyweather.com
 
ScottySkis said:
Watching Wednesday Storm Potential
Happy Sunday, Hudson Valley... we hope everyone is having a nice weekend. For several days we've been monitoring a wave of low pressure that will follow our Monday rain storm. That wave of energy will ride along the boundary left behind by our Monday storm system... and the potential exists for that low pressure to intensify and bring a period of snow to parts of the Northeast, including the Hudson Valley, on Wednesday.
Summary:
- Period of snow possible on Wednesday
- Impacts on Hudson Valley very uncertain at this time
- Most likely a light snow event, but approximately 30% chance of significant snow The key to the forecast for Wednesday is the position of the left over frontal boundary from Monday. After the front moves through our area on Monday night, it will stall out over the Mid Atlantic region. The low pressure that follows on Wednesday will move along that boundary. The European and Canadian models in the past 36 hours have focused in on the idea that the boundary is further south, and the low pressure develops as it moves out to sea. That solution would give us a period of light snow showers, that could amount to a dusting to 2 inches at most. It would be a nuisance event with some slick spots on the roads. The GFS model has identified the possibility of the boundary being a touch further north. This would cause the storm to hug the coast a bit more, and intensifying as it moves up the coast. This scenario would bring a period of moderate snow to the Hudson Valley, and in which case could bring 6" of snow to our area. If you've heard rumors and rumblings about a 'big snowstorm' on Wednesday... you have the GFS model to thank for that
At this point, it really is a bit of a toss up with how this unfolds. The reason is that as we mentioned, this hinges on what happens with tomorrow's rain event. How that frontal binary stalls out on Tuesday, will go a long way into determining whether we see some light snow showers... or our 1st snowstorm of the season on Wednesday .With this event still 4 days away, Our next update on this will be Sunday evening. www.hudsonvalleyweather.com
Click to expand...
Chance of a accumulating snow in the mountains is getting close to zero
But the chance of us in the metro area hitting 70 deg is increasing
Buy a mountain bike boys and girls?
 
jasonwx said:
Chance of a accumulating snow in the mountains is getting close to zero
But the chance of us in the metro area hitting 70 deg is increasing
Buy a mountain bike boys and girls?
Click to expand...
Got one.
But tis better invested cash to get the edges sharpened - skis tuned at this point.
It’s just normal above and below freezing temps.
It ain’t even winter yet.

The west seems even more challenged except for western Canada.
 
tirolski said:
Got one.
But tis better invested cash to get the edges sharpened - skis tuned at this point.
It’s just normal above and below freezing temps.
It ain’t even winter yet.

The west seems even more challenged except for western Canada.
Click to expand...
I agree
Just stirring the pot.
If the west doesn’t have a big year. We are all in trouble. The water situation is dire
 
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