Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will come to an end this morning, and drier
weather will prevail with colder than
normal temperatures for
the rest of today. Thursday night into Friday will bring our
next chance for some light snow as a
low pressure system crosses
our area. Another weaker
low pressure system could bring
additional snow showers over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 618 AM EST Wednesday...
Snowfall totals have over
performed overnight. Snow showers were more persistent than
anticipated, in fact we still have snow showers continuing this
morning. There appears to still be enough shortwave energy
crossing the area to continue the showers. Brisk northwesterly
flow is expected through the day. This will lead to some blowing
snow concerns as well.
Snow showers dropped south across our region overnight bringing
light snowfall accumulation to parts of the region. Showers
will come to an end this morning, then a general drying trend
will take over for the rest of the day with increasing sunshine
this afternoon. Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest
this afternoon. Today will be about 15 degrees cooler than
yesterday though, with highs topping out in the 20s areawide.
This will be followed by a cold overnight period, colder than
we`ve had recently but pretty close to seasonal normals. Clear
skies will lead to temperatures dropping into the single digits
and teens above zero, winds will also slacken towards early
Thursday morning. Warm air
advection will begin on Thursday as
next
low pressure system approaches our region,
flow will become
southerly and despite increasing clouds temperatures will reach
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Chance for precipitation will
increase during the afternoon hours from west to east across our
area, mainly just Northern New York during Thursday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 336 AM EST Wednesday...
Thursday night, low pressure will
track from Lake Ontario across Vermont and into the Gulf of
Maine in the span of 12 hours.
Frontogenesis forcing and warm
air
advection continues to look strongest to our south, though
southeasterly surface
flow overnight will advect in plenty of
moisture and mild air to produce low temperatures roughly 10-15
degrees above average for mid February. Lows will bottom out in
the upper teens to mid 20s, continuing the with the mild trend
this month.
Light to moderate snow will be ongoing for most of the night
Thursday, tapering off into showers Friday. Snow ratios will be
around 16-18:1, indicating light, fluffy, and low impact snow.
Folks may be waking up to anywhere from 1-6 inches on Friday
morning, depending on location. The Northeast Kingdom will be on
the lower end with just a couple inches of snow, while
the
Greens and northern New York could have 3-6 inches of snow,
especially on the summits of Greens and Adirondacks. The
Champlain Valley can expect roughly 2-3 inches of snow total.
Highs Friday will be fairly seasonable, around mid 20s to mid
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 336 AM EST Wednesday...
An unsettled pattern continues for
the weekend and next week with a longwave trough over the
region sending shortwave after shortwave through our forecast
area. Our most
likely chance for snow showers still looks to be
Saturday with one of those weak shortwaves mentioned. Then,
another
shortwave on Sunday with the potential for some snow
showers. High temperatures will be just around seasonable, but
there could be a slight warmup early next week. Lows will
continue to be above or just around
normal for this time of
year.