Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Only calling for tree to 6 here in CNY, but we'll take it!
Winter Weather 23/24
- Thread starter NYSkiBlog
- Start date
Ripitz
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2020
Meet me at Belle.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1213 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...We continue to track an area of low
pressure that is expected to bring widespread snowfall to New
England Saturday night into Sunday. Global guidance and higher
resolution guidance like the NAM12 have come into somewhat
better agreement following the 00Z model cycle. The expected low
pressure is now expected to move well inside of benchmark but
is still likely to be a little too far east and progressive to
be a significant event across the region. Taking a look at some
of the ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF, the probability
for seeing greater than 6 inches of snow in Burlington is only
10-20% while southeastern Vermont near Springfield is expected
to be closer to 60-70%. Needless to say, we expected a sharp
southeast to northwest gradient is snowfall totals with the
highest totals likely closer to the New England coastline. We
will have to track this low pressure system closely as any
western jog could put a strong area of frontogenesis across
portions of Vermont which would lead to heavy banded snowfall.
This is low confidence at this time but is something we will be
watching for as we begin to enter the temporal resolution for
high resolution model guidance. We can say for certain, however,
that precipitation type will not be a problem with this event
as we will definitely be on the cold side with all snow
expected.
Snow showers will likely continue well into Monday with
northwesterly flow in the wake of the low pressure system
allowing for some "backside bonus" on the western slopes of the
higher terrain. We could see some impacts to the Monday morning
commute but only light snow is expected at this time. Canadian
high pressure will be quick to build across the region by Monday
night which should allow for some partial clearing. Given we
will likely see a fresh snow pack, we could see some chilly
overnight temperatures into Tuesday with lows in the single
digits and teens.
Another low pressure system is expected to quickly eject out of
the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday night and allow for
additional precipitation to impact the region. The low pressure
system is forecast to undergo rapid intensification as it moves
toward the Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. Precipitation type
for this system is expected to be challenging given the main low
track favors rainfall for our region but a coastal low is also
expected to form over southern New England which could limit the
amount of warm air advection leading to more mixed
precipitation or snow. In addition to this precipitation, models
continue to show a 60-80 knot southeasterly oriented jet that
could bring some downslope conditions to the region. It`s way
too far out to try and figure out such a localized feature but
will be something to monitor as we head into next week. In the
mean time, enjoy some white stuff aka snow this weekend.
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1213 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...We continue to track an area of low
pressure that is expected to bring widespread snowfall to New
England Saturday night into Sunday. Global guidance and higher
resolution guidance like the NAM12 have come into somewhat
better agreement following the 00Z model cycle. The expected low
pressure is now expected to move well inside of benchmark but
is still likely to be a little too far east and progressive to
be a significant event across the region. Taking a look at some
of the ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF, the probability
for seeing greater than 6 inches of snow in Burlington is only
10-20% while southeastern Vermont near Springfield is expected
to be closer to 60-70%. Needless to say, we expected a sharp
southeast to northwest gradient is snowfall totals with the
highest totals likely closer to the New England coastline. We
will have to track this low pressure system closely as any
western jog could put a strong area of frontogenesis across
portions of Vermont which would lead to heavy banded snowfall.
This is low confidence at this time but is something we will be
watching for as we begin to enter the temporal resolution for
high resolution model guidance. We can say for certain, however,
that precipitation type will not be a problem with this event
as we will definitely be on the cold side with all snow
expected.
Snow showers will likely continue well into Monday with
northwesterly flow in the wake of the low pressure system
allowing for some "backside bonus" on the western slopes of the
higher terrain. We could see some impacts to the Monday morning
commute but only light snow is expected at this time. Canadian
high pressure will be quick to build across the region by Monday
night which should allow for some partial clearing. Given we
will likely see a fresh snow pack, we could see some chilly
overnight temperatures into Tuesday with lows in the single
digits and teens.
Another low pressure system is expected to quickly eject out of
the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday night and allow for
additional precipitation to impact the region. The low pressure
system is forecast to undergo rapid intensification as it moves
toward the Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. Precipitation type
for this system is expected to be challenging given the main low
track favors rainfall for our region but a coastal low is also
expected to form over southern New England which could limit the
amount of warm air advection leading to more mixed
precipitation or snow. In addition to this precipitation, models
continue to show a 60-80 knot southeasterly oriented jet that
could bring some downslope conditions to the region. It`s way
too far out to try and figure out such a localized feature but
will be something to monitor as we head into next week. In the
mean time, enjoy some white stuff aka snow this weekend.
Harvey
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Harvey
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Ripitz
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2020
Looks like I will be plowing on Sunday.
Harvey
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Belle makes a lot of sense for Monday.
If I was feeling adventurous Greek or Song. Never been to Song, would consider if @JohnF would ski with me.
McCauley and Snow Ridge are too far. Not that much farther from Plattekill, but much farther from home at the end of the day.
Holiday would be perfect if it was open.
I guess I could see where it actually snows too, huh.
If I was feeling adventurous Greek or Song. Never been to Song, would consider if @JohnF would ski with me.
McCauley and Snow Ridge are too far. Not that much farther from Plattekill, but much farther from home at the end of the day.
Holiday would be perfect if it was open.
I guess I could see where it actually snows too, huh.
