saratogahalfday
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- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023
As of 332 AM EST Saturday...The onset of the next winter storm
is expected late Sunday night/Monday morning as a mid-upper
level cutoff low approaches from the west and crosses the Great
Lakes. An associated surface low pressure will be moving out
ahead of the trough as another surface low moves along the
Carolina coast. This pattern, resembling a Miller Type B
nor`easter, will continue to progress throughout the day Monday,
vertically stacking and negatively tilting the eastward-moving
Great Lakes lows but simultaneously transferring energy to the
coastal low, which is expected to head northeastward. It`s
important to note the many moving pieces here, as there remains
variability in the end result. That being said, we are honing in
on some details as ensembles cluster more and more. PoPs are in
the 30-50% range for northern New York Sunday night, then
increasing to widespread 30+% Monday with up to 80-90% in the
Adirondacks.
Precipitation will arrive in higher terrain of the Adirondacks
as early as Sunday night with lows in the mid to upper 20s,
which, while 5-10 degrees above average for mid-March, will be
cold enough to allow for primarily snow across the forecast
area. Monday, however, temperatures will likely rise into the
upper 30s by the afternoon, bringing rain into the mix
throughout the valleys. Another thing to note is that with the
time of year, snow ratios could end up lower than what the
models suggest, producing a wetter snow. All in all, Sunday
night/Monday we expect a dusting of snow in north/central
Vermont outside the Greens to up to 2-3 inches of snow in the
Adirondacks and southern Greens. Wind gusts out of the southeast
will be around 15 mph for most. Models are still trying to spit
out bits of sleet at times in the mountains, but there`s not
much evidence in the model thermal profiles, and if sleet does
occur, it should be very isolated to spots at highest
elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 332 AM EST Saturday...As the storm mentioned in the short term
continues, integrative water vapor transport is expected to increase
across New England, directed toward our forecast area, particularly
southern Vermont, out of the southeast bringing more acute
impacts to portions of the North Country. Upper level dynamics
on global models are indicating high efficiency in producing
precipitation and anticipated in
south/central VT, with most moisture present in the 925-850mb
layer as southeasterly winds in that layer advect in more
moisture from the Atlantic, continuing to fuel the storm`s
precipitation.
While the Pwats could be higher for a more impactful storm, 0.4" is
only about 0.07-0.10 of an inch below the 75th percentile. High
precipitation rates are likely at times, especially across
south/central Vermont, and any upslope precipitation could
accentuate these high rates with extra upward motion added. Maximum
vertical velocity is expected to take place around 5 AM to 11 AM
Tuesday while surface low pressure strengthens as it reaches the
Rhode Island/Mass coast. It should also be noted that this could be
a very long-duration storm as the upper low pirouettes around itself
for a while, though rates should not stay extreme for the entirety
of the storm. Based on all this, we have PoPs of up to 100% in for
Monday night/Tuesday, mostly snow with lows in the lower 30s, just
some rain mixing in at the heart of the Champlain Valley. Snowfall
amounts Monday night alone could be as high as 5-10 inches of snow
in south/central Vermont and Essex County New York.
With temperatures rising into the mid- to upper 30s Tuesday,
rain/snow mix could return, especially to the Champlain Valley, but
heavy rates could keep precip as snow for most of the forecast area
as snow falls too quickly to melt significantly. This will likely
result in a heavy, wet snow resulting in the potential for some
power outages. PoPs begin to decrease Tuesday night, though
lows will be in the upper 20s, allowing for mostly snow again.
Snow will turn more showery than steady into Wednesday as low
pressure shifts away from the forecast area. Winds will be
gusting 25-30 mph out of the north throughout the day Wednesday
behind the storm with highs in the lower to mid-30s. By
Wednesday night, the forecast area should return to dry weather
under high pressure for Thursday with highs upper 30s to lower
40s. After it`s all said and done, ensembles have chances in the
70-90% range of over 12 inches of snow for the Adirondacks and
southern/central Greens, with as much as 2 feet possible.
The next system could arrive Friday/Saturday, but model consensus is
far from perfected, so more details to come. For now, mostly chance
PoPs in for this period.
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023
As of 332 AM EST Saturday...The onset of the next winter storm
is expected late Sunday night/Monday morning as a mid-upper
level cutoff low approaches from the west and crosses the Great
Lakes. An associated surface low pressure will be moving out
ahead of the trough as another surface low moves along the
Carolina coast. This pattern, resembling a Miller Type B
nor`easter, will continue to progress throughout the day Monday,
vertically stacking and negatively tilting the eastward-moving
Great Lakes lows but simultaneously transferring energy to the
coastal low, which is expected to head northeastward. It`s
important to note the many moving pieces here, as there remains
variability in the end result. That being said, we are honing in
on some details as ensembles cluster more and more. PoPs are in
the 30-50% range for northern New York Sunday night, then
increasing to widespread 30+% Monday with up to 80-90% in the
Adirondacks.
Precipitation will arrive in higher terrain of the Adirondacks
as early as Sunday night with lows in the mid to upper 20s,
which, while 5-10 degrees above average for mid-March, will be
cold enough to allow for primarily snow across the forecast
area. Monday, however, temperatures will likely rise into the
upper 30s by the afternoon, bringing rain into the mix
throughout the valleys. Another thing to note is that with the
time of year, snow ratios could end up lower than what the
models suggest, producing a wetter snow. All in all, Sunday
night/Monday we expect a dusting of snow in north/central
Vermont outside the Greens to up to 2-3 inches of snow in the
Adirondacks and southern Greens. Wind gusts out of the southeast
will be around 15 mph for most. Models are still trying to spit
out bits of sleet at times in the mountains, but there`s not
much evidence in the model thermal profiles, and if sleet does
occur, it should be very isolated to spots at highest
elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 332 AM EST Saturday...As the storm mentioned in the short term
continues, integrative water vapor transport is expected to increase
across New England, directed toward our forecast area, particularly
southern Vermont, out of the southeast bringing more acute
impacts to portions of the North Country. Upper level dynamics
on global models are indicating high efficiency in producing
precipitation and anticipated in
south/central VT, with most moisture present in the 925-850mb
layer as southeasterly winds in that layer advect in more
moisture from the Atlantic, continuing to fuel the storm`s
precipitation.
While the Pwats could be higher for a more impactful storm, 0.4" is
only about 0.07-0.10 of an inch below the 75th percentile. High
precipitation rates are likely at times, especially across
south/central Vermont, and any upslope precipitation could
accentuate these high rates with extra upward motion added. Maximum
vertical velocity is expected to take place around 5 AM to 11 AM
Tuesday while surface low pressure strengthens as it reaches the
Rhode Island/Mass coast. It should also be noted that this could be
a very long-duration storm as the upper low pirouettes around itself
for a while, though rates should not stay extreme for the entirety
of the storm. Based on all this, we have PoPs of up to 100% in for
Monday night/Tuesday, mostly snow with lows in the lower 30s, just
some rain mixing in at the heart of the Champlain Valley. Snowfall
amounts Monday night alone could be as high as 5-10 inches of snow
in south/central Vermont and Essex County New York.
With temperatures rising into the mid- to upper 30s Tuesday,
rain/snow mix could return, especially to the Champlain Valley, but
heavy rates could keep precip as snow for most of the forecast area
as snow falls too quickly to melt significantly. This will likely
result in a heavy, wet snow resulting in the potential for some
power outages. PoPs begin to decrease Tuesday night, though
lows will be in the upper 20s, allowing for mostly snow again.
Snow will turn more showery than steady into Wednesday as low
pressure shifts away from the forecast area. Winds will be
gusting 25-30 mph out of the north throughout the day Wednesday
behind the storm with highs in the lower to mid-30s. By
Wednesday night, the forecast area should return to dry weather
under high pressure for Thursday with highs upper 30s to lower
40s. After it`s all said and done, ensembles have chances in the
70-90% range of over 12 inches of snow for the Adirondacks and
southern/central Greens, with as much as 2 feet possible.
The next system could arrive Friday/Saturday, but model consensus is
far from perfected, so more details to come. For now, mostly chance
PoPs in for this period.
forecast thru Saint Patrick’s Day.
