AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
644 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At this point, the long term period looks to remain warmer than
normal with a low probability of any significant precipitation.
Quasi-zonal northern stream jet is forecast to remain
along/north of the international border, likely preventing any
incursions of Arctic air. As Thursday`s system moves off into
the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, a warm day is possible for
roughly the southeastern two thirds of the forecast area as deep
mixing is forecast before the onset of cold advection. Highs
could reach the 50s in the Hudson Valley/Litchfield County if
the timing is as currently forecast. The cold advection works
through Friday night, setting up a much cooler but still
seasonable day for Saturday. Cutoff low in the southern stream
is forecast to move offshore of the Carolinas on Sunday, but
consensus supports any precipitation with this system remaining
south of the forecast area at this time. Assuming this is the
case, high pressure should be parked over the area Sunday into
Monday, leading to dry weather. Warm advection Monday ahead of a
weak northern stream wave could result in another very mild
day.