NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
Many but don’t want to get too excited yet. Pattern supports potential every three days
Winter Weather 22/23
- Thread starter jasonwx
- Start date
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
ya need about 30 inches to get things close to normal...some place need way more... let it evolve..
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
This is a clown map so please don’t take it at face value but gives you an idea of the potential if everything falls into place. This winter has been the opposite of falling into place so caution flags are needed
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1230 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from a few snow showers over the high terrain, the
rest of the day will be mostly cloudy and dry with milder
temperatures. Some clearing is expected for tonight with seasonable
temperatures. Another complex storm system will bring a wintry mix
of precipitation to the region Thursday and Friday. Drier weather
returns for the weekend, but yet another weather system may bring a
mix of rain and/or snow to the region to begin the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday starts off dry and cool, but clouds continue to
increase through the day ahead of our next approaching weather
system. The synoptic setup features a closed upper low and
associated surface cyclone tracking well to our west into the
Great Lakes region. The low will occlude and become vertically
stacked Thursday afternoon. However, out ahead of the parent
low, precipitation should begin to overspread the region from
southwest to northeast from late Thursday morning through
Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will be associated with mid-
level warm advection/isentropic lift, and there will be some
enhancement from a band of frontogenesis along a mid-level
deformation zone. There still remains some uncertainty with
regards to precipitation type, but confidence is increasing that
the eastern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley, and southern
Vermont will see advisory-level snowfalls. With a cold high to
the north, expecting northerly ageostrophic flow down the north-
south oriented valleys, which will help lock in cold air and
will lead to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and
possibly rain. This includes the Capital District, and will
likely see a wintry mix in the Mohawk Valley as well. Further
south, mainly rain is expected across the Mid Hudson Valley and
Litchfield County. Areas that remain below freezing will likely
have a slippery Thursday PM commute. Tended towards colder side
of guidance with this cold high to the north. GFS seems like a
warm outlier but NAM may be a little too cold, so banked on a
blend of the Euro/NAM/RGEM for temps and therefore precip types.
Thursday night, as the primary low to our west occludes, a
secondary low forms off the NJ coast beneath a shortwave that
will become negatively tilted as it rotates around the upper
low. This surface low will also be beneath the left exit of an
upper jet, which will help to strengthen the low as it pulls
away to the east. The strengthening low will help to pull in
colder air from the north, which should help erode the warm
nose and result in a change to more snow after midnight and
especially as we head towards 12z Friday. A lull in the precip
is expected after midnight Thursday night, however, with some
drier mid- level air working in.
Friday, the upper low and weakening parent low will track
eastwards towards our region from the Great Lakes. Exactly where
the decaying parent low tracks remains uncertain, but guidance
seems to be converging on a track near or just north of I-90.
This will lead to snow showers picking back up again Friday
morning especially along and north of I-90. We may also see an
inverted trough develop from the secondary low back towards the
decaying parent low, which could lead to some locally enhanced
snowfall wherever this sets up. Would not be surprised to see a
an additional couple inches of snow, which could also lead to
the Friday AM commute being slippery. With upper troughing
lingering over our area, some lingering rain/snow showers are
expected through the day Friday, especially north of the Capital
District and in the westerly favored upslope areas of southern
VT. Winter weather advisories will likely be needed from the
Capital District northwards, and possibly for the higher
elevations of the Berkshires and Catskills as well due to a
combination of snow and ice. Highest snowfall totals of 3-7"
will likely occur in the Adirondacks and southern VT. However,
held off on issuing headlines with this forecast package due to
ongoing advisories for the current system.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Attention shifts to a full latitude mid and upper level trough
digging into the Plains Saturday night with low pressure ejecting
north/northeast from the lower MS River Valley and moving towards
the Midwest on Sunday. A secondary coastal low forms near the
Carolinas and moves northeast. The medium range deterministic
guidance and ensembles vary on how quickly the primary low decays
with the coastal cyclone taking over late Sunday into Sunday night.
Enough cold air should be entrenched for over running snowfall to
develop from southwest to northeast associated with the baroclinic
zone ahead of the coastal cyclone. PoPs were increased Sunday night
into the likely range with a favored snow ptype. Enough spread
exists in the guidance on the exact track of the wave that makes
where a potential rain/snow line sets up tricky this far out.
Current trends favor a slightly inland track from the Delmarva
Region captured by the upper low closing off Monday morning that the
precipitation may change to rain or a wintry mix along and south and
east of the eastern Catskills/Capital Region/Berkshires. The GEFS
and NAEFS do show spread in the track. Copious amounts of Gulf of
Mexico and Atlantic moisture may be tapped. For now, we have
continued with a rain/snow ptype and will monitor for potential
impacts Sunday night through Monday morning. Lows Sunday night are
expected in the 20s to lower 30s with highs ranging from the upper
20s over the southern Dacks to mid and upper 30s over the Capital
Region/Mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Again, accumulating snow does
look possible across most of the forecast area, and the amounts
remain uncertain based on the track and evolution of the system
(though locations north and west of Albany may have the highest
totals based on the current consensus track).
National Weather Service Albany NY
1230 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from a few snow showers over the high terrain, the
rest of the day will be mostly cloudy and dry with milder
temperatures. Some clearing is expected for tonight with seasonable
temperatures. Another complex storm system will bring a wintry mix
of precipitation to the region Thursday and Friday. Drier weather
returns for the weekend, but yet another weather system may bring a
mix of rain and/or snow to the region to begin the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday starts off dry and cool, but clouds continue to
increase through the day ahead of our next approaching weather
system. The synoptic setup features a closed upper low and
associated surface cyclone tracking well to our west into the
Great Lakes region. The low will occlude and become vertically
stacked Thursday afternoon. However, out ahead of the parent
low, precipitation should begin to overspread the region from
southwest to northeast from late Thursday morning through
Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will be associated with mid-
level warm advection/isentropic lift, and there will be some
enhancement from a band of frontogenesis along a mid-level
deformation zone. There still remains some uncertainty with
regards to precipitation type, but confidence is increasing that
the eastern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley, and southern
Vermont will see advisory-level snowfalls. With a cold high to
the north, expecting northerly ageostrophic flow down the north-
south oriented valleys, which will help lock in cold air and
will lead to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and
possibly rain. This includes the Capital District, and will
likely see a wintry mix in the Mohawk Valley as well. Further
south, mainly rain is expected across the Mid Hudson Valley and
Litchfield County. Areas that remain below freezing will likely
have a slippery Thursday PM commute. Tended towards colder side
of guidance with this cold high to the north. GFS seems like a
warm outlier but NAM may be a little too cold, so banked on a
blend of the Euro/NAM/RGEM for temps and therefore precip types.
Thursday night, as the primary low to our west occludes, a
secondary low forms off the NJ coast beneath a shortwave that
will become negatively tilted as it rotates around the upper
low. This surface low will also be beneath the left exit of an
upper jet, which will help to strengthen the low as it pulls
away to the east. The strengthening low will help to pull in
colder air from the north, which should help erode the warm
nose and result in a change to more snow after midnight and
especially as we head towards 12z Friday. A lull in the precip
is expected after midnight Thursday night, however, with some
drier mid- level air working in.
Friday, the upper low and weakening parent low will track
eastwards towards our region from the Great Lakes. Exactly where
the decaying parent low tracks remains uncertain, but guidance
seems to be converging on a track near or just north of I-90.
This will lead to snow showers picking back up again Friday
morning especially along and north of I-90. We may also see an
inverted trough develop from the secondary low back towards the
decaying parent low, which could lead to some locally enhanced
snowfall wherever this sets up. Would not be surprised to see a
an additional couple inches of snow, which could also lead to
the Friday AM commute being slippery. With upper troughing
lingering over our area, some lingering rain/snow showers are
expected through the day Friday, especially north of the Capital
District and in the westerly favored upslope areas of southern
VT. Winter weather advisories will likely be needed from the
Capital District northwards, and possibly for the higher
elevations of the Berkshires and Catskills as well due to a
combination of snow and ice. Highest snowfall totals of 3-7"
will likely occur in the Adirondacks and southern VT. However,
held off on issuing headlines with this forecast package due to
ongoing advisories for the current system.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Attention shifts to a full latitude mid and upper level trough
digging into the Plains Saturday night with low pressure ejecting
north/northeast from the lower MS River Valley and moving towards
the Midwest on Sunday. A secondary coastal low forms near the
Carolinas and moves northeast. The medium range deterministic
guidance and ensembles vary on how quickly the primary low decays
with the coastal cyclone taking over late Sunday into Sunday night.
Enough cold air should be entrenched for over running snowfall to
develop from southwest to northeast associated with the baroclinic
zone ahead of the coastal cyclone. PoPs were increased Sunday night
into the likely range with a favored snow ptype. Enough spread
exists in the guidance on the exact track of the wave that makes
where a potential rain/snow line sets up tricky this far out.
Current trends favor a slightly inland track from the Delmarva
Region captured by the upper low closing off Monday morning that the
precipitation may change to rain or a wintry mix along and south and
east of the eastern Catskills/Capital Region/Berkshires. The GEFS
and NAEFS do show spread in the track. Copious amounts of Gulf of
Mexico and Atlantic moisture may be tapped. For now, we have
continued with a rain/snow ptype and will monitor for potential
impacts Sunday night through Monday morning. Lows Sunday night are
expected in the 20s to lower 30s with highs ranging from the upper
20s over the southern Dacks to mid and upper 30s over the Capital
Region/Mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Again, accumulating snow does
look possible across most of the forecast area, and the amounts
remain uncertain based on the track and evolution of the system
(though locations north and west of Albany may have the highest
totals based on the current consensus track).
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
as of now monday's event looks to fav the cats...
it looks like we will have 10 days of winter coming up....the gfs is showing that the west will open up again and ya all know what that means
TheGreatAbyss
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
I have no idea what that means.
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
right now a ridge is building over the west, this will shunt all the storms north .. the east will will have trough for the next 10 or so days maybe a little longer? We will have active weather and snow will fall...
then then the ridge out west will start to move west . Thus continue their incredible winter.. More ridging in the east...
But it is weather and this scenario could change..
