AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
948 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through the Saint Lawrence River Valley
will being rain later today and tonight. It will be mild and
windy later today into Wednesday, but temperatures will drop
sharply behind a cold front Wednesday. High pressure building in
from Canada will bring mainly fair and cold weather on
Thursday. A low pressure system will bring accumulating snow
Thursday night into Friday, with moderate to heavy accumulations
possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Flood Watch continues for the western/central Mohawk Valley,
southern Adirondacks, Lake George area, and southern Vermont
this afternoon into Wednesday evening...
...rain will be
heaviest and longest lived over the SW ADKs, eastern Catskills, and
western slopes of the western New England high terrain...
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A significant winter storm is still on track to potentially impact
eastern NY and western New England Thursday night through Friday.
Some lake effect follows Friday night into early Saturday. A
clipper and a cold front moves across the region to close the
weekend, as the mean upper level trough establishes itself over the
eastern CONUS with below normal temps to close February and open
March.
Thursday Night...Good agreement between the 00Z
CMC/ECMWF/GFS/Ensembles that a "Miller B" storm system will impact
the region.
Friday...The primary sfc cyclone lifts northeast of the OH Valley to
the north-central PA/NY border and then starts to decay in the late
morning with secondary coastal development south of Long Island and
southern New England. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture will be
tapped for periods of snow (possibly heavy), but some mixing is
possible south of the Capital Region and I-90. We added a period of
sleet and possibly a little freezing rain or even plain rain for
portions of Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield Counties. We maintained snow
further north for now.