.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EST Monday...Longer range data remains consistent with
showing a extended period of precipitation beginning Wednesday night
and continuing right through the first part of Friday.
Precipitation
will generally be on the light side Wednesday night and Thursday
morning and be in the form of either rain or snow. This will start
to change throughout the day on Thursday as frontal boundary moves
south across the area. Falling temperatures from north to south
could result in some difficult travel as wet roads begin to
freeze
over.
Trends in the longer range data now suggests frontal boundary will
stall just south of the area as it becomes parallel to the west to
southwest flow aloft. This places even more of the area on the cold
side of the boundary and any warm nose aloft remains just south of
the area. At this time precipitation for much of the area late
Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday looks to be in the form of
snow. Cannot rule out the possibility of some
mixed precipitation
across the far southern portions of Rutland and Windsor counties
southward, but when the main
surge of
moisture moves in the bulk of
the precipitation should be in the form of snow. With respect to the
surge of
moisture precipitable water values remain higher than
normal given the influx of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the
Atlantic. Strong signals for 850
millibar temperature
advection and
850/700
millibar frontogenesis, mainly over portions of the northern
Adirondacks and central Vermont, and the
right rear quadrant of a
strong
upper level jet to promote additional lift along and north of
the boundary
suggest the potential for moderate to heavy snowfall
for parts of our area, especially Thursday night into early Friday
morning. Given this event has the potential for impactful weather
with accumulating snow and possibly some
mixed precipitation will
continue to mention in the hazardous weather
outlook and issue a
heads up email to our partners.
Precipitation tapers off later Friday as upper
trough axis moves
into the region and forces the boundary well to our east. Looks like
a return to below
normal temperatures for the weekend along with
relatively dry conditions.
