sig
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
lift with your legs old dudes
Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
- Status
Temp6
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2020
The wind was making noises I’ve never heard it make before around 12-3 am last night. I thought the windows of our hotel were going to blow in for sure. 14” storm total reported up here in western Maine. Probably is more like 30” in some spots and 0” a couple yards in either direction. Whiteout driving last night after apres took us an hour to go a mere 20 miles.
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
There is mixed guidance from NWS on the upcoming event for Weds/Thursday. Most agree that it will be cold then warm the cold again. GFS looks warmer with all rain in southern NY...
Met people, predictions... how much rain on Weds, and how will the skiing be on Thursday?
Met people, predictions... how much rain on Weds, and how will the skiing be on Thursday?
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Sunday...Dry weather continues Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the south to southwest flow bringing above normal
temperatures to the area. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to lower 40s. But then attention quickly turns to the
Thursday/Friday time period. Cold front will move into the region
Wednesday night/Thursday morning and stall just to our south as it
becomes parallel to the southwest flow aloft. Shortwave trough
coming out of the Southern Plains will help to develop a surface low
along the front and these features will enhance the potential for
precipitation across the area. Plenty of signals pointing to the
potential for heavier precipitation as well as multiple types of
precipitation. Above normal precipitable water values move into the
region in response to favorable flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the
Atlantic. Strong signals in the 850 millibar temperature advection
fields and 850/700 frontogenetic fields also suggest the potential
for heavier precipitation. Thermal profiles north of the boundary
support snow, but warmer air aloft over the central and southern
sections of our area suggest rain, sleet, and freezing rain. This
will need to be monitored for sure, but at this time will keep the
forecast as either rain or snow. Some differences exist on location
of the boundary, but most of the deterministic and probabilistic
data point to a high likelihood of precipitation and will continue
the idea of likely to categorical precipitation chances Thursday
into Friday. Second day in a row where all of these stronger signals
suggest the potential for an impactful weather event and definitely
will be the main focus in the extended forecast moving forward.
System moves east of the area later Friday into Saturday and high
pressure builds in for drier weather.
As of 400 AM EST Sunday...Dry weather continues Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the south to southwest flow bringing above normal
temperatures to the area. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to lower 40s. But then attention quickly turns to the
Thursday/Friday time period. Cold front will move into the region
Wednesday night/Thursday morning and stall just to our south as it
becomes parallel to the southwest flow aloft. Shortwave trough
coming out of the Southern Plains will help to develop a surface low
along the front and these features will enhance the potential for
precipitation across the area. Plenty of signals pointing to the
potential for heavier precipitation as well as multiple types of
precipitation. Above normal precipitable water values move into the
region in response to favorable flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the
Atlantic. Strong signals in the 850 millibar temperature advection
fields and 850/700 frontogenetic fields also suggest the potential
for heavier precipitation. Thermal profiles north of the boundary
support snow, but warmer air aloft over the central and southern
sections of our area suggest rain, sleet, and freezing rain. This
will need to be monitored for sure, but at this time will keep the
forecast as either rain or snow. Some differences exist on location
of the boundary, but most of the deterministic and probabilistic
data point to a high likelihood of precipitation and will continue
the idea of likely to categorical precipitation chances Thursday
into Friday. Second day in a row where all of these stronger signals
suggest the potential for an impactful weather event and definitely
will be the main focus in the extended forecast moving forward.
System moves east of the area later Friday into Saturday and high
pressure builds in for drier weather.
Don’t toy with us Jason….just tell us now how this one is gonna shit the bed! I’m guessing, as a northern storm following warm air, that the track will push too far west and warm nose will push north and grace us with ncp.
We’ve got plans to be in Placid and ski Whiteface next weekend. A two foot dump Thurs/Fri seems too good to be true, and you know what they say….
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Open Snow has some insane totals forecast for Friday. Next ten days:
---
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1046 AM EST Sun Jan 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A sunny Sunday is ahead albeit chilly with below normal
temperatures still in place and continued breezy winds will make it
feel even colder. After a dry and seasonable start to the week,
temperatures will moderate with above normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. Fair weather through early in the week as high pressure
dominates then the weather turns unsettled. A front is expected to
stall across the region late in the week as a wave of low pressure
moves along it bringing widespread precipitation to the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The focus of the long term period will be a high signal for an
impactful weather system to affect us mainly during the Thursday and
Friday time frame. All precipitation types will be on the table with
this event.
What makes this system potentially impactful are the similar signals
from all model guidance. Sufficient moisture will advect in from the
Gulf of Mexico into this system with NAEFS mean Integrated Water
Vapor Transport (IVT) and Precipitable Water (PW) 2 to 4 standard
deviations above normal. In addition, the track of the surface low
as well as our region will be located within the right entrance
region of a very strong upper-level jet (possibly 160-200+ kts) and
very strong southwesterly mid-level flow. This should result in
sufficient precipitation (moderate to perhaps heavy) progressing
across our region.
The main challenge with this forecast will be the position of the
front and the surface low and this will be the determining factor
regarding which precipitation types will occur and where (as the low
will be the dividing line between plain rain to the south/east and
snow/ice north/west). As expected, there are differences in the
models on this. To start, rain or a rain snow mix is likely to occur
Wednesday night into a part of Thursday along the initial cold
front. As the second surface low approaches, a strong, arctic high
will build in across the central US as well as to our north into
southeastern Canada. This will gradually increase the advection of
low-level cold air farther south and eastward while the air aloft
likely remains warmer and possibly above freezing in spots until the
passage of the surface low and front cools the air aloft. Therefore,
areas of snow, ice and rain are all on the table Thursday into
Friday from north to south. As this system and precipitation is
expected to track closely parallel to the mid-level flow, this could
result in prolonged periods of rain, snow and ice training across
the same areas.
Again, the track of the low varies amongst the deterministic
guidance and ensembles. A general compromise of the guidance and
ensembles at this time suggests the main low tracks near or just to
the south and east of Albany (possibly close to the I-95 corridor).
If this occurs, more snow and ice would likely occur across the
region than rain. However, a track more north and west would result
in more rain and less snow and ice. Trends as of late are indicating
a possible colder solution, but we are still several days out until
this event unfolds. Also, it is still way too soon for a first guess
with snow and/or ice amounts at this time, though latest WPC
probabilities of exceeding a quarter of an inch frozen precipitation
is 30-70 percent for areas north and west of Albany.
---
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1046 AM EST Sun Jan 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A sunny Sunday is ahead albeit chilly with below normal
temperatures still in place and continued breezy winds will make it
feel even colder. After a dry and seasonable start to the week,
temperatures will moderate with above normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. Fair weather through early in the week as high pressure
dominates then the weather turns unsettled. A front is expected to
stall across the region late in the week as a wave of low pressure
moves along it bringing widespread precipitation to the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The focus of the long term period will be a high signal for an
impactful weather system to affect us mainly during the Thursday and
Friday time frame. All precipitation types will be on the table with
this event.
What makes this system potentially impactful are the similar signals
from all model guidance. Sufficient moisture will advect in from the
Gulf of Mexico into this system with NAEFS mean Integrated Water
Vapor Transport (IVT) and Precipitable Water (PW) 2 to 4 standard
deviations above normal. In addition, the track of the surface low
as well as our region will be located within the right entrance
region of a very strong upper-level jet (possibly 160-200+ kts) and
very strong southwesterly mid-level flow. This should result in
sufficient precipitation (moderate to perhaps heavy) progressing
across our region.
The main challenge with this forecast will be the position of the
front and the surface low and this will be the determining factor
regarding which precipitation types will occur and where (as the low
will be the dividing line between plain rain to the south/east and
snow/ice north/west). As expected, there are differences in the
models on this. To start, rain or a rain snow mix is likely to occur
Wednesday night into a part of Thursday along the initial cold
front. As the second surface low approaches, a strong, arctic high
will build in across the central US as well as to our north into
southeastern Canada. This will gradually increase the advection of
low-level cold air farther south and eastward while the air aloft
likely remains warmer and possibly above freezing in spots until the
passage of the surface low and front cools the air aloft. Therefore,
areas of snow, ice and rain are all on the table Thursday into
Friday from north to south. As this system and precipitation is
expected to track closely parallel to the mid-level flow, this could
result in prolonged periods of rain, snow and ice training across
the same areas.
Again, the track of the low varies amongst the deterministic
guidance and ensembles. A general compromise of the guidance and
ensembles at this time suggests the main low tracks near or just to
the south and east of Albany (possibly close to the I-95 corridor).
If this occurs, more snow and ice would likely occur across the
region than rain. However, a track more north and west would result
in more rain and less snow and ice. Trends as of late are indicating
a possible colder solution, but we are still several days out until
this event unfolds. Also, it is still way too soon for a first guess
with snow and/or ice amounts at this time, though latest WPC
probabilities of exceeding a quarter of an inch frozen precipitation
is 30-70 percent for areas north and west of Albany.
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Beware of the open snow numbers
They had 30” for the cats last week
That said this could be a amazing event
This is my fav type of snow maker
A stable wave creating a prolonged over running event. The last low was a exploding system.
Light winds steady snow. Now the question is were the boundary sets up.
They had 30” for the cats last week
That said this could be a amazing event
This is my fav type of snow maker
A stable wave creating a prolonged over running event. The last low was a exploding system.
Light winds steady snow. Now the question is were the boundary sets up.
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Locals saying we're getting "significant" snowfall, no totals yet. Whatever we get will be welcome. Won't take much to make it primo around here.
- Status
