Winter Weather 20/21

[Harvey]

What can you tell me about said rumored Christmas Storm?

This finally looks better than bad:

 

[Campgottagopee]

Hopefully we'll be rewarded this year and winter settles in. ?

 

[Temp6]

Pray for some cold air cause it’s looking like a WET Christmas.

 

[Harvey]

Welcome to winter. The fall thread is officially retired.

You probably know Christmas is looking ugly right now, with a slim chance for redemption.

Not great when they are talking about river levels.

NWS ALY

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main focus during this period will be potential for heavy
rain/strong winds late Thursday-Thursday night, and possible quick
changeover to snow/wintry precip in some areas Friday (Christmas)
morning.

Most guidance continues to suggest a strong surge of moisture
transport for late Thursday into Thursday night across the region,
as sharp upper level trough becomes neutral to negatively tilted.
Additional energy rotating around the base of trough may induce a
wave of low pressure to develop along the sharp cold front across
the central/northern Appalachians. Where, and how quickly any
potential wave tracks northward along the front will be crucial to
our region regarding heavy rainfall, and potential snowmelt, as a
slower wave (or one that develops farther south along the front)
could allow for a longer duration of strong southeast/south winds
and warmer temperatures/higher dewpoints across the region,
especially from the Hudson River Valley into western New England.

At this time, have sided a bit slower with expected FROPA than the
00Z/GFS and NBM guidance would suggest (which would also allow for
less time in the warm/windy pre-frontal air mass, and for greater
chances for snow or mixed precipitation Thursday night). So, we are
siding a bit warmer/wetter at this time. Rainfall amounts of 1-2
inches are possible, along with strong south/southeast winds with
gusts reaching at least 30-50 mph (strongest across higher terrain
areas of western New England and the Taconics).

Please refer to the hydrology section of AFD for more details on
snowmelt and potential river responses.

Christmas morning could see a period of snow or wintry mix across at
least a portion of the region, depending on how quickly the front
tracks east. Currently, western areas such as the Mohawk Valley and
SW Adirondacks would be most favored for a quicker changeover and
perhaps several inches of snow, however there is still considerable
uncertainty regarding this, and additional refinements will be made
as we get closer to late week.

Snow showers and occasional Lake Effect snowbands will then occur
Friday afternoon into early Sunday, with greatest chances for more
persistent occurrence across far northern Herkimer/northwest
Hamilton Counties. Outside of any Lake Effect snow, expect partly
cloudy skies with cold temps and brisk winds. Highs Saturday-Sunday
mainly in the 20s with teens across higher elevations. Overnight
lows mainly in the single digits and teens for Friday-Sunday night.

 

[jasonwx]

I wasn’t going to bring this up
Better that you did

 

[NorEaster27]

Met winter started on the 1st

 

[NorEaster27]

Christmas storm looks like our annual Grinch, 1-2 inches of rain with warm temps. The snowpack will absorb a good deal of this water (especially areas with 20+ on the ground), our best hope is that this forms into a real base without too much damage as the current snow is mostly fluff. We would want a quicker FROPA which would limit duration of temps well into the 40s and 50s.

 

[Harvey]

Met winter started on the 1st

Are you suggesting we change the decade old tradition of flipping the weather threads on a met calendar?

 

[JohnyCatnip]

Seems like the last couple seasons have had a few of these vicious snow-thaw-snow cycles. Hoping for the best. Can’t let our precious base wash away like tears.

 

[Tjf1967]

Oh its been more than a couple of seasons. I would say out of the last 20 we haven't been spared more than twice. No big thing anymore.