Spring Weather 2022
- Thread starter NYSkiBlog
- Start date
Good chance of 6-10” of wet snow for North Creek Monday night to Wednesday morning.
wonderpony
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2020
Rain. Good day for inside projects.
And/or a nap.
And/or a nap.
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
737 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light rain and snow showers will persist on
Easter Sunday along with brisk and cool conditions. Dry weather
returns Sunday night and Monday with a narrow high pressure system
building into the region. Another storm system will bring mixed
precipitation to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Mainly rain
is expected for the river valley areas while accumulating snow is
expected for the higher terrain. Dry weather conditions are expected
to return to the area on Wednesday. Through the middle of next week,
temperature anomalies are expected to run cooler than normal.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main focus for the long term period is a coastal storm that may
bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to the higher elevations of our
region Monday night and Tuesday. Valley areas are expected to see
mostly rain with only minor snow accumulations. Outside of a few
showers associated with a cold front later in the week, most of the
rest of the long term looks fairly tranquil. See below for further
details.
Monday night and Tuesday...all attention is on the coastal low that
is expected to move up the coast Monday night and Tuesday. Looking
aloft, A potent upper trough looks to amplify and become negatively
tilted as it swings eastward from the Great Lakes region towards
upstate NY. meanwhile, a southern stream system moves out of the
US on Monday, and eventually tracks up the east coast
and phases with the northern stream trough Monday night. As phasing
commences, the upper trough is expected to close off, with the 500 mb
low tracking near or northwest of Albany. At the surface, a primary
low associated with the northern stream feature will weaken Monday
night as surface cyclogenesis takes place off the east coast as the
southern stream system moves northeastward. This surface low will
deepen in to the low-mid 990s mb range and will track off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast Monday night and will cross southeastern New England
Monday. Strong upper forcing for ascent combined with impressive
moisture transport into the region will likely result in QPF amounts
in excess of 1" across parts of the region. A strong east to
southeasterly low-level jet will likely lead to some upslope
enhancement in the Catskills, southern Greens, and east/southeast
facing slopes of the Adirondacks.
As far as surface impacts, the most likely scenario is for a high-
elevation snowstorm Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation is
expected to overspread the region Monday night and quickly pick up
in intensity. A mix of rain and snow may change to all snow for the
higher elevations, while valley areas remain mostly rain. The snow
that does fall will be of a wet, heavy consistency due to very
marginal thermal profiles. Tuesday morning, snow mixes with and
changes back to rain outside of the highest elevations with diurnal
warming. The heaviest precip looks to fall between 6z and 18z
Tuesday, tapering to showers/snow showers Tuesday afternoon and
ending Tuesday evening or Tuesday night from southwest to northeast.
Current forecast is for a general 1-3" of snow above 1000 ft
elevation, 4-6" of snow above 1500 ft elevation, and 6-8 with
isolated 8-10" amounts not out of the question above 2000 ft,
especially for southern VT. Monday night lows will be in the mid to
upper 30s for valley locations and near to slightly below freezing
for the higher elevations. Temperatures rise back above freezing for
most areas Tuesday, with mid to upper 40s for valley areas.
Do want to reiterate that there is still a fairly high degree of
uncertainty with this storm. First, this is not an ideal setup for
snow. A 500 mb and 700 mb low track north and west of the region
signals that warm temperatures may be an issue for accumulating
snow. Second, with marginal thermal profiles and the high sun angle
at this time of year, snow may have trouble accumulating initially.
On the flip side, if it turns out to be a couple degrees cooler than
expected, then we may see accumulating snow at lower elevations than
currently forecast. Finally, a strong frontogenesis band will likely
set up of the northwestern side of the surface low, but the exact
location is highly uncertain at this lead time. Snowfall amounts
could be locally enhanced under this band and diminished outside of
this band due to subsidence. Therefore, the current snowfall amounts
are subject to change over the next few days as additional guidance
comes in and we continue to refine the forecast.
National Weather Service Albany NY
737 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light rain and snow showers will persist on
Easter Sunday along with brisk and cool conditions. Dry weather
returns Sunday night and Monday with a narrow high pressure system
building into the region. Another storm system will bring mixed
precipitation to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Mainly rain
is expected for the river valley areas while accumulating snow is
expected for the higher terrain. Dry weather conditions are expected
to return to the area on Wednesday. Through the middle of next week,
temperature anomalies are expected to run cooler than normal.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main focus for the long term period is a coastal storm that may
bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to the higher elevations of our
region Monday night and Tuesday. Valley areas are expected to see
mostly rain with only minor snow accumulations. Outside of a few
showers associated with a cold front later in the week, most of the
rest of the long term looks fairly tranquil. See below for further
details.
Monday night and Tuesday...all attention is on the coastal low that
is expected to move up the coast Monday night and Tuesday. Looking
aloft, A potent upper trough looks to amplify and become negatively
tilted as it swings eastward from the Great Lakes region towards
upstate NY. meanwhile, a southern stream system moves out of the
US on Monday, and eventually tracks up the east coast
and phases with the northern stream trough Monday night. As phasing
commences, the upper trough is expected to close off, with the 500 mb
low tracking near or northwest of Albany. At the surface, a primary
low associated with the northern stream feature will weaken Monday
night as surface cyclogenesis takes place off the east coast as the
southern stream system moves northeastward. This surface low will
deepen in to the low-mid 990s mb range and will track off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast Monday night and will cross southeastern New England
Monday. Strong upper forcing for ascent combined with impressive
moisture transport into the region will likely result in QPF amounts
in excess of 1" across parts of the region. A strong east to
southeasterly low-level jet will likely lead to some upslope
enhancement in the Catskills, southern Greens, and east/southeast
facing slopes of the Adirondacks.
As far as surface impacts, the most likely scenario is for a high-
elevation snowstorm Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation is
expected to overspread the region Monday night and quickly pick up
in intensity. A mix of rain and snow may change to all snow for the
higher elevations, while valley areas remain mostly rain. The snow
that does fall will be of a wet, heavy consistency due to very
marginal thermal profiles. Tuesday morning, snow mixes with and
changes back to rain outside of the highest elevations with diurnal
warming. The heaviest precip looks to fall between 6z and 18z
Tuesday, tapering to showers/snow showers Tuesday afternoon and
ending Tuesday evening or Tuesday night from southwest to northeast.
Current forecast is for a general 1-3" of snow above 1000 ft
elevation, 4-6" of snow above 1500 ft elevation, and 6-8 with
isolated 8-10" amounts not out of the question above 2000 ft,
especially for southern VT. Monday night lows will be in the mid to
upper 30s for valley locations and near to slightly below freezing
for the higher elevations. Temperatures rise back above freezing for
most areas Tuesday, with mid to upper 40s for valley areas.
Do want to reiterate that there is still a fairly high degree of
uncertainty with this storm. First, this is not an ideal setup for
snow. A 500 mb and 700 mb low track north and west of the region
signals that warm temperatures may be an issue for accumulating
snow. Second, with marginal thermal profiles and the high sun angle
at this time of year, snow may have trouble accumulating initially.
On the flip side, if it turns out to be a couple degrees cooler than
expected, then we may see accumulating snow at lower elevations than
currently forecast. Finally, a strong frontogenesis band will likely
set up of the northwestern side of the surface low, but the exact
location is highly uncertain at this lead time. Snowfall amounts
could be locally enhanced under this band and diminished outside of
this band due to subsidence. Therefore, the current snowfall amounts
are subject to change over the next few days as additional guidance
comes in and we continue to refine the forecast.
