Long Term Winter Forecasts 2023 - 2024

[x10003q]

That image is getting a lot of play. (Something is odd about that scale - terrible is 10 inches less?)

15/16 was the worst year in NY since we have been keeping records for Gore. 11/12 was the second worst, and we recorded 2x as much in that year vs 15/16.

Gore Mountain Annual Snowfall

A definitive summary since 2008.

nyskiblog.com

Obviously anything could happen. How often do strong analogs match up? @jasonwx or anyone know?

(Full disclosure, until we get a roof on, warm weather is exactly what I need.)

There is some serious ugly on the NYSB snow total record.

 

[Harvey]

There is some serious ugly on the NYSB snow total record.

Explain?

 

[tirolski]

Looks like Gore could get temps to make snow this weekend if they wanna.

And around Thanksgiving. The future speaks.

 

[x10003q]

Explain?

The average of 122" with an 82", a 46", and a 93" is putrid.

 

[Andy_ROC]

If you take the the long
range verbatim. We will have an awful winter. Just remember last years forecast had the Sierra and much of the Rockies well below average warm and dry. We all know how that turned out.

One thing I know for sure about long range winter forecasts, it's worse than me throwing blindfolded at a dartboard

 

[Harvey]

The average of 122" with an 82", a 46", and a 93" is putrid.

I disagree. It's average. That's what the average is, so it's not above average or below average.

Gore is actually pretty good on this IMO.

For years they used 150" as their marketing average, and it was probably true a some point. 150 vs 125 is not a huge difference between marketing average and actual average.

Now (in the last two years) Gore has been using 125 in marketing.

Do you describe every other mountain with a 120 average as putrid? The only hills in NY truly above that number are probably WF, McCauley, Snow Ridge, PeeknPeak, who else? Holiday?

How much did Stratton report last year against their 180 marketing average? How many times have they hit that number in the last 10 years? The only source I could find wasn't credible.

 

[Harvey]

In other news, it looks warm this month. Not seeing much more than WROD for Black Friday in much of NY.

 

[Andy_ROC]

In other news, it looks warm this month. Not seeing much more than WROD for Black Friday in much of NY.

Which I guess isn't a bad thing. Seems lately when we get early snow winter then decides to take a long break. Hopefully a weak start indicates a wintery December and beyond.

 

[Warp daddy]

Calling now for a "super" El Nino that's not gonna help

 

[tirolski]

North Creek is supposed to get to 19F for a low this Sunday.
Last year the high was 69 on the same date.
Letitsnow even it’s made by humans.