Long Term Winter Forecasts 2023 - 2024

[Harvey]

This is from Earl Barkers site. For some reason he doesn't have a 240 hour any more.

http://echo.wxcaster.com/models/gfs/00Z/CONUS_GFS_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW-40_168HR.gif

Any idea how he does this?

 

[Adirondack Johnny]

I'll take it.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853

 

[Abubob]

I've always found this to be helpful

Model Analyses and Guidance

Specifically ...

For long range choose tabs: GFS / NAMER / sim_radar_comp

For short range: NAM-HIRES / US-NE / sim_radar_1km

 

[Andy_ROC]

Winter forecast from Powder.com. Another encouraging one for snow

 

[Huezee]

 

[MarzNC]

Looking good for the southeast according to the winning wolly worm. ;-)

October 22, 2023 (NC)

And the Winning Wooly Worm for 2023 is "Jeffery" of Newland, North Carolina

The 2023 Winner of the Banner Elk Woolly Worm Festival is Jeffery the worm

www.skisoutheast.com

 

[MC2]

New NOAA winter 2024 snow maps: It won’t be a typical season for NY

Many areas in the northern tier of the nation are expected to see less snowfall than usual this coming winter.

www.silive.com

 

[Harvey]

That image is getting a lot of play. (Something is odd about that scale - terrible is 10 inches less?)

15/16 was the worst year in NY since we have been keeping records for Gore. 11/12 was the second worst, and we recorded 2x as much in that year vs 15/16.

Gore Mountain Annual Snowfall

A definitive summary since 2008.

nyskiblog.com

Obviously anything could happen. How often do strong analogs match up? @jasonwx or anyone know?

(Full disclosure, until we get a roof on, warm weather is exactly what I need.)

 

[Sbob]

Commentary about El Nino location Starts at 8:30 “Region wide vs East based. I’m not giving up hope yet!

 

[jasonwx]

If you take the the long
range verbatim. We will have an awful winter. Just remember last years forecast had the Sierra and much of the Rockies well below average warm and dry. We all know how that turned out.