Fall Weather 2022
- Thread starter Ripitz
- Start date
Be careful out there folks.
There could be some folks falling with the flash freeze,
Also, black ice ain’t nice.
One coworker dude, who was an Olympic water polo player, broke a bone after skiing just walking to the car.
Tjf1967
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Just enough snow to hide how awful it is for a few days
TheGreatAbyss
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
On Saturday at bell I turned to the rando person on the lift. Told him take this in. This might be the best day of the season.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
We were all saying the same thing at Magic. I still have trips north later this season (Cannon, Jay), so I still have hope.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
904 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period opens with a high amplitude upper trough
continuing to dig eastward from the Midwest and Ohio River Valley
toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. An explosively deepening
surface low over the Great Lakes rapidly translates to its northeast
over southeastern Canada with an extremely potent cold front
draped across the eastern half of CONUS. A comparatively weak
coastal low will also slide rapidly north along the Eastern
Seaboard, aiding in creating highly anomalous warm and moist
southerly flow ahead of the surface cold front supporting
widespread soaking rains. In its wake, a very cold Arctic
airmass advects into the region, setting the stage for cold
weather Friday night through the Christmas weekend.
Precipitation will arrive by Thursday evening as the coastal low
reinforces northward transport of seasonably warm and humid air.
Lows Thursday night will be near normal high temperatures, upper 20s
in high terrain to upper 30s in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Initially,
precipitation will be all snow in colder locales in the southern
Adirondacks and Greens, with all rain along the Hudson south of
Albany and mixed rain/snow elsewhere. As warm advection kicks in
under rapidly increasing southerly and southeasterly flow,
precipitation will transition to all rain throughout the forecast
area by Friday morning. Winds will become very strong during the day
Friday with widespread gusts over 50 mph likely with higher values
possible in higher terrain; wind headlines may become necessary as
forecast confidence increases closer to the event. Temperatures
Friday will be well above normal, with highs in the mid 40s to upper
50s across the region. The current expectation for rainfall totals
is generally 1.5-3" for most locales, consistent with the WPC
marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Day 3. These rain totals,
combined with a very warm air mass and significant snowpack in high
elevations from last week`s storm, may result in flooding concerns
as rain combines with snowmelt, especially in basins which respond
quickly to runoff.
The story quickly changes as the potent Arctic front pushes eastward
on Friday evening. Temperatures plummet to well below normal values
Friday night, and remain cold through the period to Monday night
with lows each night ranging from the single digits in higher
terrain to low to mid teens at lower elevations. Any lingering
precipitation as the storm exits to the northeast will quickly
transition to rain/snow mix and ultimately snow as the flash freeze
settles in. Robust surface high pressure builds across the Ohio and
Mississippi River Valleys, leading to largely dry conditions for
most of the region. However, post-frontal westerlies will result in
continued chances for lake effect snow in the southwestern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley through Monday. With
moderate winds persisting through Christmas Eve and Christmas
Day, dangerously cold wind chills may become an issue,
particularly during the overnight hours. High temperatures
through the holiday weekend are consistently about 10F below
normal, ranging from upper teens in high terrain to mid to upper
20s in the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys.
National Weather Service Albany NY
904 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period opens with a high amplitude upper trough
continuing to dig eastward from the Midwest and Ohio River Valley
toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. An explosively deepening
surface low over the Great Lakes rapidly translates to its northeast
over southeastern Canada with an extremely potent cold front
draped across the eastern half of CONUS. A comparatively weak
coastal low will also slide rapidly north along the Eastern
Seaboard, aiding in creating highly anomalous warm and moist
southerly flow ahead of the surface cold front supporting
widespread soaking rains. In its wake, a very cold Arctic
airmass advects into the region, setting the stage for cold
weather Friday night through the Christmas weekend.
Precipitation will arrive by Thursday evening as the coastal low
reinforces northward transport of seasonably warm and humid air.
Lows Thursday night will be near normal high temperatures, upper 20s
in high terrain to upper 30s in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Initially,
precipitation will be all snow in colder locales in the southern
Adirondacks and Greens, with all rain along the Hudson south of
Albany and mixed rain/snow elsewhere. As warm advection kicks in
under rapidly increasing southerly and southeasterly flow,
precipitation will transition to all rain throughout the forecast
area by Friday morning. Winds will become very strong during the day
Friday with widespread gusts over 50 mph likely with higher values
possible in higher terrain; wind headlines may become necessary as
forecast confidence increases closer to the event. Temperatures
Friday will be well above normal, with highs in the mid 40s to upper
50s across the region. The current expectation for rainfall totals
is generally 1.5-3" for most locales, consistent with the WPC
marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Day 3. These rain totals,
combined with a very warm air mass and significant snowpack in high
elevations from last week`s storm, may result in flooding concerns
as rain combines with snowmelt, especially in basins which respond
quickly to runoff.
The story quickly changes as the potent Arctic front pushes eastward
on Friday evening. Temperatures plummet to well below normal values
Friday night, and remain cold through the period to Monday night
with lows each night ranging from the single digits in higher
terrain to low to mid teens at lower elevations. Any lingering
precipitation as the storm exits to the northeast will quickly
transition to rain/snow mix and ultimately snow as the flash freeze
settles in. Robust surface high pressure builds across the Ohio and
Mississippi River Valleys, leading to largely dry conditions for
most of the region. However, post-frontal westerlies will result in
continued chances for lake effect snow in the southwestern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley through Monday. With
moderate winds persisting through Christmas Eve and Christmas
Day, dangerously cold wind chills may become an issue,
particularly during the overnight hours. High temperatures
through the holiday weekend are consistently about 10F below
normal, ranging from upper teens in high terrain to mid to upper
20s in the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
844 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 402 AM EST Tuesday...An impactful weather event with
several moving parts will unfold Thursday night through Friday
night. It is highly probable that the developing low pressure
system will approach climatological minimum pressure records. As
such, it has the potential to be more impactful than the usual
event of this nature with likely damaging winds, mixed
precipitation at the onset (mainly east of the Greens) of
precipitation, the combination of rain and snowmelt producing
sharp river rises, and then a flash freeze behind a potent cold
front. Due to the strength of cold air, there will also be lake
effect snow to contend with Saturday through Sunday. We`ll break
each hazard down individually.
Mixed Precipitation (Thursday night into Friday morning): A
warm front lifts north Thursday night into Friday morning. At
this stage, the forecast depicts just rain or snow, but thermal
profiles suggest there could be a mix in there. Models are
struggling between the saturation of dry air and how quickly
warming takes place Thursday night into Friday. Think the
overall transition will be fairly quick with snow at the onset
for most, with the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valley potentially
starting as a rain-snow mix which quickly becomes rain. By
Friday morning, any snow should become a wintry mix, especially
in sheltered sections of the Adirondacks, near Massena, and
parts of the Northeast Kingdom, and then almost just as quickly
become all rain as temperatures warm into the 40s to lower 50s.
As such, the impacts from any mixed p-types will probably be
minor. More tweaks will be made as we can get hour-by-hour
detail within short range models over the next few days.
Strong Winds (Friday): Along and just behind the warm front
will be a potent low-level jet. At 850 hPa, southeasterly winds
approaching 70 to 80 knots will cover the region. The EC
ensemble depict high probabilities along the spine of the Greens
with wind gusts greater than 50 knots, and basically covers the
entire region with probabilities of greater than 34 knots near
100 percent. There will be some strong gusts, but how prolific
this will be depends somewhat on precipitation. It seems rain
associated with the occluding cold front arrives fairly quickly
behind the warm front, which may limit the time frame for the
strongest gusts. Furthermore, the inversion layer in regional
models begins below ridge tops, along with the competing
pressure falls along the occluded front that could reduce
gradients. So there are a few inhibiting factors to consider,
but a sub 980 low near Lake Huron and a 1040mb high north of
Quebec City point to at least strong to damaging winds are
likely.
Flash Freeze (Friday night): It will be warm on Friday, with
temperatures into the mid 40s to lower 50s from strong warm
advection. Snowmelt and moderate to locally heavy rain is also
expected during the day. By late evening, an occluding cold
front will pass through, and behind it will be quickly falling
temperatures. Heading towards Friday night, temperatures will
drop into the teens to lower 20s (roughly 30 degree drop) in a
matter of 3 to 6 hours. Any left over water on roads and bridges
will quickly become black ice. Especially with weekend holiday
travel, it will be very important to know the roads before
heading out Friday night and Saturday morning.
River Flooding (Friday night into Saturday): A favorable
pattern for heavy rainfall will be present. A negatively tilted
trough and meridional upper jet will provide ample synoptic
forcing for ascent while PWAT values climb towards the 250-275
percent of normal. Orographic effects will likely be pronounced
during this event, which will limit some precipitation amounts
in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, but enhance
precipitation on the eastern facing slopes, which will likely
experience 1 to 2 inches of rain. Snowmelt from warm
temperatures will contribute to run off, and long range
ensembles have our common trouble spots (East Branch of the
Ausable, Mad River, and Otter Creek) reaching minor flood by
about 60 percent of members. Of course, this is using low
resolution ensemble members, which will struggle a bit with
terrain features. As the Northeast River Forecast Center notes,
the weather pattern is favorable, but some uncertainties remain.
Thus, will continue to monitor as we approach the event, but
sharp river rises are expected for this event.
Lake-effect Snow (Saturday through Sunday): Lake Ontario
remains warm, and the incoming air mass will be quite cold. As
the upper low lifts north as opposed to heading east, persistent
southwesterly flow means that this set-up will be slow to
change. There`s some directional shear to the flow, which may
impact the placement and consistency of the band, but parts of
St. Lawrence County are in line for some lake effect activity.
The new week starts quieter. The upper low will likely amble
northwards and slowly decay. Cold air on the south side of the
low will wrap into our region, but being a southwest wind, it
will not plunge our temperatures overly much setting up highs in
the mid 20s that gradually warms towards the midweek with
overnight lows in the teens.
National Weather Service Burlington VT
844 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 402 AM EST Tuesday...An impactful weather event with
several moving parts will unfold Thursday night through Friday
night. It is highly probable that the developing low pressure
system will approach climatological minimum pressure records. As
such, it has the potential to be more impactful than the usual
event of this nature with likely damaging winds, mixed
precipitation at the onset (mainly east of the Greens) of
precipitation, the combination of rain and snowmelt producing
sharp river rises, and then a flash freeze behind a potent cold
front. Due to the strength of cold air, there will also be lake
effect snow to contend with Saturday through Sunday. We`ll break
each hazard down individually.
Mixed Precipitation (Thursday night into Friday morning): A
warm front lifts north Thursday night into Friday morning. At
this stage, the forecast depicts just rain or snow, but thermal
profiles suggest there could be a mix in there. Models are
struggling between the saturation of dry air and how quickly
warming takes place Thursday night into Friday. Think the
overall transition will be fairly quick with snow at the onset
for most, with the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valley potentially
starting as a rain-snow mix which quickly becomes rain. By
Friday morning, any snow should become a wintry mix, especially
in sheltered sections of the Adirondacks, near Massena, and
parts of the Northeast Kingdom, and then almost just as quickly
become all rain as temperatures warm into the 40s to lower 50s.
As such, the impacts from any mixed p-types will probably be
minor. More tweaks will be made as we can get hour-by-hour
detail within short range models over the next few days.
Strong Winds (Friday): Along and just behind the warm front
will be a potent low-level jet. At 850 hPa, southeasterly winds
approaching 70 to 80 knots will cover the region. The EC
ensemble depict high probabilities along the spine of the Greens
with wind gusts greater than 50 knots, and basically covers the
entire region with probabilities of greater than 34 knots near
100 percent. There will be some strong gusts, but how prolific
this will be depends somewhat on precipitation. It seems rain
associated with the occluding cold front arrives fairly quickly
behind the warm front, which may limit the time frame for the
strongest gusts. Furthermore, the inversion layer in regional
models begins below ridge tops, along with the competing
pressure falls along the occluded front that could reduce
gradients. So there are a few inhibiting factors to consider,
but a sub 980 low near Lake Huron and a 1040mb high north of
Quebec City point to at least strong to damaging winds are
likely.
Flash Freeze (Friday night): It will be warm on Friday, with
temperatures into the mid 40s to lower 50s from strong warm
advection. Snowmelt and moderate to locally heavy rain is also
expected during the day. By late evening, an occluding cold
front will pass through, and behind it will be quickly falling
temperatures. Heading towards Friday night, temperatures will
drop into the teens to lower 20s (roughly 30 degree drop) in a
matter of 3 to 6 hours. Any left over water on roads and bridges
will quickly become black ice. Especially with weekend holiday
travel, it will be very important to know the roads before
heading out Friday night and Saturday morning.
River Flooding (Friday night into Saturday): A favorable
pattern for heavy rainfall will be present. A negatively tilted
trough and meridional upper jet will provide ample synoptic
forcing for ascent while PWAT values climb towards the 250-275
percent of normal. Orographic effects will likely be pronounced
during this event, which will limit some precipitation amounts
in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, but enhance
precipitation on the eastern facing slopes, which will likely
experience 1 to 2 inches of rain. Snowmelt from warm
temperatures will contribute to run off, and long range
ensembles have our common trouble spots (East Branch of the
Ausable, Mad River, and Otter Creek) reaching minor flood by
about 60 percent of members. Of course, this is using low
resolution ensemble members, which will struggle a bit with
terrain features. As the Northeast River Forecast Center notes,
the weather pattern is favorable, but some uncertainties remain.
Thus, will continue to monitor as we approach the event, but
sharp river rises are expected for this event.
Lake-effect Snow (Saturday through Sunday): Lake Ontario
remains warm, and the incoming air mass will be quite cold. As
the upper low lifts north as opposed to heading east, persistent
southwesterly flow means that this set-up will be slow to
change. There`s some directional shear to the flow, which may
impact the placement and consistency of the band, but parts of
St. Lawrence County are in line for some lake effect activity.
The new week starts quieter. The upper low will likely amble
northwards and slowly decay. Cold air on the south side of the
low will wrap into our region, but being a southwest wind, it
will not plunge our temperatures overly much setting up highs in
the mid 20s that gradually warms towards the midweek with
overnight lows in the teens.
