Fall Weather 2022
- Thread starter Ripitz
- Start date
Harvey
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Yeah man welcome back Temp!
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
329 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Impending Nor`Easter expected to bring moderate to high
impacts to at least parts of the region Thursday evening into
the weekend due to moderate to heavy snow, especially for the
high elevations***
***A winter storm warning is in effect for Thursday night into
Saturday for the Catskills, Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks, Green
Mountains in southern Vermont and northern Berkshires. A winter
storm watch is in effect for Thursday night into Saturday for
the Connecticut River Valley in southeast Vermont, the southern
Berkshires and the Litchfield Hills in Connecticut. A winter
weather advisory is in effect Thursday night through Friday
night for the Capital District.
After quiet weather on Thursday, a deep area of low pressure
that has been responsible for a wide variety of winter and
severe weather impacts across the CONUS this week will spin
slowly east toward our area from the plains Thursday and Friday.
Forcing associated with the left- exit of a strong upper- level
jet on the south side of the closed low will help to induce the
development of low pressure over the eastern mid-Atlantic
states later Thursday. The operational models are in pretty good
agreement with the track of the surface low from the southern
Delmarva to coastal NJ to just south of Long Island and Cape Cod
by later Friday night, with minor differences associated with
how much surface low pressure extends to the west toward New
Jersey. Colder solutions would keep most of the low pressure
east of the coast and south of Long Island, while warmer
solutions are closer to NJ and Long Island. Meanwhile, a cold
area of high pressure over eastern Quebec and New Foundland
associated with persistent upper-level blocking over eastern
Canada will remain anchored in place, providing a source of
moderately cold air the storm.
Precipitation will overspread the area from the southwest
Thursday evening. Expect the precipitation to start mainly as
snow, however some rain will probably be mixing with the snow
overnight, especially in the Hudson Valley from the Capital
District southward. Precipitation type will be a very difficult
forecast for the Hudson Valley later Thursday night and Friday
with expected thermal profiles very marginal for rain vs. snow.
The most likely scenario appears to be that precipitation type
in this area will be dependent on precipitation intensity, with
bursts of heavier precipitation associated with periods of
heavy, wet snow, while light rain or drizzle falls when the
precipitation lets up. East-southeast flow around 925 mb will
favor downsloping and a minimum of precipitation west of the
Taconic highlands along and just east of the Hudson River, and
so we expect a minimum of snowfall in that area through Friday.
Meanwhile, higher elevations especially west of the Hudson River
Valley should be just cold enough to receive mostly snow through
Friday with heavy, wet accumulations likely.
Challenges continue Friday night as it appears that the storm
system will be slow to exit the region and should be lingering
near or just east of Cape Cod into Saturday morning. Colder air
will gradually be filtering east-southeast across the region
through this time and mixed precipitation will be trending to
snow overnight into Saturday morning. There will be the
potential for a band of at least moderate snow to organize over
eastern NY late Friday as the 700 mb low closes off east of New
England. In fact, areas east of the Hudson River that get the
lightest amounts of snow during earlier stages of the storm may
end up getting enhanced snowfall Friday night into Saturday
morning as westerly flow around the backside of the system
results in enhanced upslope and snow totals in that area. Snow
should taper to flurries and end across the entire area by
around midday Saturday.
National Weather Service Albany NY
329 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Impending Nor`Easter expected to bring moderate to high
impacts to at least parts of the region Thursday evening into
the weekend due to moderate to heavy snow, especially for the
high elevations***
***A winter storm warning is in effect for Thursday night into
Saturday for the Catskills, Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks, Green
Mountains in southern Vermont and northern Berkshires. A winter
storm watch is in effect for Thursday night into Saturday for
the Connecticut River Valley in southeast Vermont, the southern
Berkshires and the Litchfield Hills in Connecticut. A winter
weather advisory is in effect Thursday night through Friday
night for the Capital District.
After quiet weather on Thursday, a deep area of low pressure
that has been responsible for a wide variety of winter and
severe weather impacts across the CONUS this week will spin
slowly east toward our area from the plains Thursday and Friday.
Forcing associated with the left- exit of a strong upper- level
jet on the south side of the closed low will help to induce the
development of low pressure over the eastern mid-Atlantic
states later Thursday. The operational models are in pretty good
agreement with the track of the surface low from the southern
Delmarva to coastal NJ to just south of Long Island and Cape Cod
by later Friday night, with minor differences associated with
how much surface low pressure extends to the west toward New
Jersey. Colder solutions would keep most of the low pressure
east of the coast and south of Long Island, while warmer
solutions are closer to NJ and Long Island. Meanwhile, a cold
area of high pressure over eastern Quebec and New Foundland
associated with persistent upper-level blocking over eastern
Canada will remain anchored in place, providing a source of
moderately cold air the storm.
Precipitation will overspread the area from the southwest
Thursday evening. Expect the precipitation to start mainly as
snow, however some rain will probably be mixing with the snow
overnight, especially in the Hudson Valley from the Capital
District southward. Precipitation type will be a very difficult
forecast for the Hudson Valley later Thursday night and Friday
with expected thermal profiles very marginal for rain vs. snow.
The most likely scenario appears to be that precipitation type
in this area will be dependent on precipitation intensity, with
bursts of heavier precipitation associated with periods of
heavy, wet snow, while light rain or drizzle falls when the
precipitation lets up. East-southeast flow around 925 mb will
favor downsloping and a minimum of precipitation west of the
Taconic highlands along and just east of the Hudson River, and
so we expect a minimum of snowfall in that area through Friday.
Meanwhile, higher elevations especially west of the Hudson River
Valley should be just cold enough to receive mostly snow through
Friday with heavy, wet accumulations likely.
Challenges continue Friday night as it appears that the storm
system will be slow to exit the region and should be lingering
near or just east of Cape Cod into Saturday morning. Colder air
will gradually be filtering east-southeast across the region
through this time and mixed precipitation will be trending to
snow overnight into Saturday morning. There will be the
potential for a band of at least moderate snow to organize over
eastern NY late Friday as the 700 mb low closes off east of New
England. In fact, areas east of the Hudson River that get the
lightest amounts of snow during earlier stages of the storm may
end up getting enhanced snowfall Friday night into Saturday
morning as westerly flow around the backside of the system
results in enhanced upslope and snow totals in that area. Snow
should taper to flurries and end across the entire area by
around midday Saturday.
Bring yer sticks. Ya gotta new knee. Oak opens Saturday.
Good place to get back on the horse for some fun runs.
Pow Wow.
Last edited:
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Not a bad idea but don't have time.
I gotta get back to braaaaap!
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Jason
It's looking like Saturday AM won't be bad. Are you seeing this as well?
Anyone ?
It's looking like Saturday AM won't be bad. Are you seeing this as well?
Anyone ?
