Coronavirus and Skiing

[Peter Minde]

"The sense of entitlement from some skiers astounds me."

Oh, yeah, I hear you. But, it's a bit beyond that. It's a general detachment and cluelessness of the upper middle class that is kind of astounding at times. A former co-worker of mine introduced me to a phrase when I complained about the ill manners of some people - "I'm the only person in the world." Its why America has botched this pandemic response and will continue to. This winter is not going to be good, and no skiing is the least of our problems.

Yep. Not being able to ski = first world problem.

 

[Harvey]

How Vermont's Ski Industry Is Preparing For A Winter Like No Other

This winter season will look different than those past for ski areas and ski towns across Vermont. This hour, we check in with members of Vermont's ski…

www.vpr.org

 

[Harvey]

Just listened to half of the pod above, sounds like Jay and Killy are estimating business being down 50% and Bolton estimating 20%.

I keep hear this idea that the "big companies" can weather a terrible season better than a smaller company. This seems to be conventional wisdom, but to me not necessarily logical. Assuming Vail is the biggest, every single one of their properties is in the same boat as every individual property.

Any one got opinions, information or facts?

 

[XTski]

Awesome to hear Solimono say they are hoping to open sometime next week, yes I mentioned bigger indipendent places like the beast will be able to handle the season better, I thought Vail etc to be too “spread out” , I did like them when owed by George Gillet thanks Harv

 

[Benny Profane]

Just listened to half of the pod above, sounds like Jay and Killy are estimating business being down 50% and Bolton estimating 20%.

I keep hear this idea that the "big companies" can weather a terrible season better than a smaller company. This seems to be conventional wisdom, but to me not necessarily logical. Assuming Vail is the biggest, every single one of their properties is in the same boat as every individual property.

Any one got opinions, information or facts?

Thanks Harv, for the excellent NPR podcast/recording.

Yeah, big companies may be more prone to severe damage from all this, because they tend to have more debt. I know Vail had to run for help in the financial world this Spring because they were already having debt issues before Covid struck. But, if you've been watching the corruption from high above, no doubt that company can wrangle some help from the taxpayer if they smile and grovel for it. Maybe.

Lazlo at Plattekill has it right. Debt is poison. He'll survive this.

 

[Harvey]

Laszlo at Plattekill has it right. Debt is poison. He'll survive this.

He is religious about it. Every summer his capital investment comes from that year's revenue. Snowmaking most often.

One thing that Steve Wright said that I found interesting and relates to my blog post (paraphrased):

"I hear people saying 'no one is honoring travel restrictions.' It's easy to look at license plates and say, 'look at all those violators.' Maybe yes maybe no. But I can tell you we are off our pace for Christmas reservations by 70%, so someone is honoring them."

 

[Brownski]

Yeah, I’ve probably said it before but I would expect to see some divesting of resorts by the big companies coming out of this. Debt is always a gamble. They‘re gambling that cash flow will increase and won’t be interrupted. They can cut prices to trade margin for cash flow but if the state says 70% of your customers can’t come to your hill....

 

[Benny Profane]

He is religious about it. Every summer his capital investment comes from that year's revenue. Snowmaking most often.

One thing that Steve Wright said that I found interesting and relates to my blog post (paraphrased):

"I hear people saying 'no one is honoring travel restrictions.' It's easy to look at license plates and say, 'look at all those violators.' Maybe yes maybe no. But I can tell you we are off our pace for Christmas reservations by 70%, so someone is honoring them."

Half of his traffic is walled off at the Canadian border. Half. Then there's probably half of the remaining northeast skiers who can't or won't go. I tell you, if the lifts are spinning and it dumps there this winter, heaven.
They're positioned differently than other big Vermont resorts. They're coming out of bankruptcy and in recievership. Actively being shopped around. So, they have no corporate overlords to answer to, yet, and can maybe be a bit more liberal with spending on lifts and grooming. Still, the value of that place has to be way lower than this time last year. The resort biz is in a depression.

Did you hear that woman who called in and her stories of Austria? Instant testing! What America needs. Such a failure. Thanks, Trump. If there was an instant test available at hotel desks, even if the traveller paid for it, a lot of problems solved.

 

[Harvey]

Debt is always a gamble. They‘re gambling that cash flow will increase and won’t be interrupted.

This is thread drift, but this is why I am debt averse. I've been working for 40 years and been through 4 big economic meltdowns (One wasn't an economic cycle, but caused by the owners of the company I work for taking a big risk.)

So it's not even really a gamble. The shit WILL hit the fan, and if you need full revenue to service your debt, your screwed. It's not realistic to assume that nothing ever goes wrong.

 

[Harvey]

Half of his traffic is walled off at the Canadian border. Half.

70% of his summer business is Canada too, so he's coming off a bad spring, and a terrible summer.