Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Sweet!
Maybe I'll end up with that waterfront property I've always wanted.
Winter Weather 23/24
- Thread starter NYSkiBlog
- Start date
Maybe I'll end up with that waterfront property I've always wanted.
Ain’t enough H2O on the planet to permanently flood ground around The Crown City.
Ya already got a pond.
wonderpony
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2020
Mine are up, too. I keep telling them to go back down.
Harvey
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Thriving on the remains of Peanut's snowman?
Ripitz
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2020
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1232 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds today give way to limited sun with another dry and
seasonably mild day tomorrow under mostly to partly cloudy
skies. A winter storm then impacts most of eastern New York and
western New England late Monday night through Tuesday with
moderate to high snowfall rates likely resulting in hazardous
travel conditions for the morning commute, especially from the
Greater Capital District south and eastward.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winter Storm Watch 1 AM to 7 PM Tuesday expanded to include the
Capital District, Schoharie Valley, central and eastern Mohawk
Valley, northern Taconics, northern Berkshires and southern
Vermont...
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from 1 AM to 7 PM Tuesday
for the mid Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, central and
southern Taconics, southern Berkshires and Litchfield Hills...
Deterministic and ensemble guidance (especially GEFS/EPS) have
come into better agreement regarding the significant winter
storm approaching from the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic
region Monday night into Tuesday. Surface cyclone deepening to
~980 mb or even sub-980 mb is expected as the cyclone center
tracks E-NE from near the Delmarva Mon night off the coast to
just south of Long Island and southern New England on Tue. While
still a progressive system, the upper trough is forecast to
become negatively tilted at 500 mb as the storm tracks just SE
of Cape Cod. Significant F-Gen NW of the cyclone should result
in pronounced mesoscale banding. Local CSTAR research from
UAlbany on mesoscale band movement resembles characteristics of
a pivoting band with a closed upper low and dual upper jet
structure. Typically pivoting bands can result in extreme
snowfall. However, the greatest challenge with this storm is the
anticipated relatively fast movement of this system, so extreme
snowfall rates would have to be realized for higher end
accumulations to occur since the residence time will not be as
long as storms with slower movement. Where the banding sets up
will be the location of the heaviest swath of snow, which could
be in the 12+", as evidenced by the high end (90%)
probabilities. The most favored areas are south/east of Albany.
Time frame is still just outside the scope of hi-res guidance,
so mesoscale details such as max snowfall rates will come into
better focus later today into tonight.
While guidance has been converging, there is still enough model
spread for fairly large differences between potential low and
high end amounts. Also a fairly sharp gradient is expected along
the NW periphery of the snow shield, as cold/dry air filters
southward across SE Canada. So there are expected to be
significant differences in snowfall ranging from a few inches or
less in the western Adirondacks to greater than 7" from around
the Capital District south and east. Due to the overall
northward shift in the storm track from the 00z guidance, will
expand the Winter Storm Watch northward to include the Capital
District, Schoharie Valley, central/eastern Mohawk Valley, N.
Berkshires, N. Taconics and S. Vermont. Winter Weather
Advisories will likely be needed for the immediate counties to
the north/west of the Watch area later in time. There is high
confidence the Tuesday morning commute will be significantly
affected by heavy snow.
As the widespread snowfall tapers off by Tue afternoon,
northerly winds will increase in response to the deepening
cyclone. Gusts of 20-30 mph should be common Tue afternoon,
which could cause some drifting snow. Highs should generally
range from the upper 20s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 30s
in lower elevations.
National Weather Service Albany NY
1232 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds today give way to limited sun with another dry and
seasonably mild day tomorrow under mostly to partly cloudy
skies. A winter storm then impacts most of eastern New York and
western New England late Monday night through Tuesday with
moderate to high snowfall rates likely resulting in hazardous
travel conditions for the morning commute, especially from the
Greater Capital District south and eastward.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winter Storm Watch 1 AM to 7 PM Tuesday expanded to include the
Capital District, Schoharie Valley, central and eastern Mohawk
Valley, northern Taconics, northern Berkshires and southern
Vermont...
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from 1 AM to 7 PM Tuesday
for the mid Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, central and
southern Taconics, southern Berkshires and Litchfield Hills...
Deterministic and ensemble guidance (especially GEFS/EPS) have
come into better agreement regarding the significant winter
storm approaching from the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic
region Monday night into Tuesday. Surface cyclone deepening to
~980 mb or even sub-980 mb is expected as the cyclone center
tracks E-NE from near the Delmarva Mon night off the coast to
just south of Long Island and southern New England on Tue. While
still a progressive system, the upper trough is forecast to
become negatively tilted at 500 mb as the storm tracks just SE
of Cape Cod. Significant F-Gen NW of the cyclone should result
in pronounced mesoscale banding. Local CSTAR research from
UAlbany on mesoscale band movement resembles characteristics of
a pivoting band with a closed upper low and dual upper jet
structure. Typically pivoting bands can result in extreme
snowfall. However, the greatest challenge with this storm is the
anticipated relatively fast movement of this system, so extreme
snowfall rates would have to be realized for higher end
accumulations to occur since the residence time will not be as
long as storms with slower movement. Where the banding sets up
will be the location of the heaviest swath of snow, which could
be in the 12+", as evidenced by the high end (90%)
probabilities. The most favored areas are south/east of Albany.
Time frame is still just outside the scope of hi-res guidance,
so mesoscale details such as max snowfall rates will come into
better focus later today into tonight.
While guidance has been converging, there is still enough model
spread for fairly large differences between potential low and
high end amounts. Also a fairly sharp gradient is expected along
the NW periphery of the snow shield, as cold/dry air filters
southward across SE Canada. So there are expected to be
significant differences in snowfall ranging from a few inches or
less in the western Adirondacks to greater than 7" from around
the Capital District south and east. Due to the overall
northward shift in the storm track from the 00z guidance, will
expand the Winter Storm Watch northward to include the Capital
District, Schoharie Valley, central/eastern Mohawk Valley, N.
Berkshires, N. Taconics and S. Vermont. Winter Weather
Advisories will likely be needed for the immediate counties to
the north/west of the Watch area later in time. There is high
confidence the Tuesday morning commute will be significantly
affected by heavy snow.
As the widespread snowfall tapers off by Tue afternoon,
northerly winds will increase in response to the deepening
cyclone. Gusts of 20-30 mph should be common Tue afternoon,
which could cause some drifting snow. Highs should generally
range from the upper 20s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 30s
in lower elevations.
Shaneskier
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2022
What are the odds we get a powder Daize Wednesday at platty?
