Winter Weather 23/24

[Endoftheline]

NNJ 55F, partly sunny, 2:20pm

That's nothing, northern NY, 52 at the Whiteface Mesonet site. Brutal mid winter day.

 

[NYSkiBlog]

FXUS61 KALY 092003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
303 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected tonight with some
clouds increasing with a few showers northwest of the Capital Region
ahead of a pre frontal disturbance. A cold front brings scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday with the mild weather
ending. Colder and drier conditions continue Sunday into early
Monday before a storm system approaching from the Mid Atlantic
Region potentially brings a plowable snowfall from the Capital
Region south and east Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The highlight for the long term continues be a potential coastal
system in the Monday night through Tuesday time frame. The
ensembles and medium range guidance continues to flip flop on the
track and evolution of this system. This is leading to a low
confidence situation on the track and extent of the possible
impacts.

A northern stream short-wave moving across the Great Lakes Region will
be trying to interact with the southern stream low Mon night, as it
moves into the TN Valley and Mid Atlantic Region. The track of the
system south or near Long Island late Monday night into Tuesday will
be the main issue on the extent of the potential impacts for snow.

The latest 12Z GFS run has trended a bit further north compared to
runs 24 hours ago, while the CMC and ECMWF are further south (though
the ECMWF is not that far off from the GFS this cycle). Locations
from the Capital Region south and east are where we have likely and
high chance PoPs. Again, it must be emphasized that subtle shifts in
the track could impact snow amounts...and how far
north/northwest they will be in the ALY forecast area. It will
likely start out as a mix of rain and snow before changing to
snow due to a warm boundary layer. Plowable snow looks possible
from the Capital Region south and east with the eastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, Berkshires and
NW CT the most vulnerable. Highs will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s in the valleys on Monday and upper 20s to 30s over the
higher terrain with clouds increasing. Lows Monday night due to
wet bulb/dynamic cooling will be in the 20s with some teens
over the southern Dacks. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid 20s to
mid 30s. The snow should be of the wet/wetter variety and lower
than climo snow to liquid ratios with high hourly rates
possible.

 

[Kleetus]

Time for me to hop on a plane and go out west. After this storm looking cold and dry for the foreseeable future...me hopping on a plane to ski out west normally makes it snow like gangbusters here.

 

[Harvey]

Time for me to hop on a plane and go out west. After this storm looking cold and dry for the foreseeable future...me hopping on a plane to ski out west normally makes it snow like gangbusters here.

Thank you for your service.

 

[Kleetus]

Thank you for your service.

I'm definitely accepting donations

 

[Andy_ROC]

Time for me to hop on a plane and go out west. After this storm looking cold and dry for the foreseeable future...me hopping on a plane to ski out west normally makes it snow like gangbusters here.

For the same reason I'm predicting some type of storm ~3/12

 

[saratogahalfday]

Thunderstorms in February.

F.

 

[x10003q]

Stratton- 336pm. 48F and pouring rain. WTF.

 

[Peter Minde]

Hail b4 the Saranac Lake winter Carnival parade. 46 degrees.

 

[Adirondack Johnny]

Yeah buddy!