Shaneskier
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2022
Once you ski pow at platty you will never go to belle again
Winter Weather 23/24
- Thread starter NYSkiBlog
- Start date
Ripitz
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2020
I’ve skied a few 30+ inch storms at Hunter. It can definitely get pounded. In my experience I think Belle has the advantage overall for snow. Some of it depends on which way the storms come in. If they come from the west then Hunter lies in a bit of a snow shadow. Most of the storm’s energy will be dropped on the Catskill divide between Halcott, Vly and Bearpen. Colonel’s Chair’s summit, the top of Hunter’s ski area, is at 3,200 ft. Belleayre’s summit is at 3,429 ft. That doesn’t sound like much of a difference but a couple hundred feet can be huge. Belleayre doesn’t have large mountains to the west that suck up most of the energy. When the storms are over, Belleayre keeps the snow the longest due to its long north facing ridge line. Hunter is definitely more exposed to wind and sun. Plattekill is its own beast. That’s where all of the cool kids hang.
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Adirondack Johnny
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2020
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
6 on the ground
Still coming down at a good clip
Still coming down at a good clip
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
I don't see the big snow totals we all lust for, but it's better than nothing. It finally looks and feels like winter.
Hoping for the best on Wednesday.
Hoping for the best on Wednesday.
Peter Minde
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 19, 2020
Notchview, Dalton MA xc center 50 miles SE of Prospect. 200 feet lower elevation than Prospect, and they miss many of the snow squalls that hit Prospect.
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Hope ya all get out
Wed looks real bad and unfortunately so does next say/sun
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1237 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 347 AM EST Sunday...The potential for a significant
system to impact the North Country Tuesday night through
Wednesday continues to increase. Let`s go over a brief synopsis
of what is expected and then we will touch on the individual
elements and hazards. A deepening mid-latitude cyclone is
expected to move from the central US to the Great Lakes Region
and then the Ottawa Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
A strong high pressure system will continue to remain anchored
across eastern Quebec which will set up an impressively strong
pressure gradient across the North Country. In addition to the
strong gradient, a plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture will quickly
advect northward allowing for both moisture and warm air
advection across the region. With a strong warm front slated to
push through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, a brief
period of heavy wet snow is looking increasingly likely before
snow changes over to rain Wednesday night and melts much of this
snow and likely much of the snow that is currently falling.
Now, let`s discuss hazards.
First, let`s talk winds. The signal for strong to damaging
winds only continues to get stronger over the past several days.
Looking at past high wind events, there are several key
features of note: A low pressure system moving over the Ottawa
or St. Lawrence Valleys, strong high pressure to our northeast,
and a deepening mid-latitude cyclone. All three of these boxes
are checked off Tuesday night into Wednesday as a possible
sub-980 mb low moves across the Ottawa Valley Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. The probabilistic values based off the ECMWF
(which tends to be a little on the high side) continues to show
80-100% chance of wind gusts in excess of 55 mph and 40-60%
chance of winds in excess of 70 mph along the western slopes of
the Green and Adirondack Mountains. It`s hard to ignore these
signals when the conceptual model aligns so perfectly in this
scenario. Given this, we have issued a high wind watch from 10
PM Tuesday through 1 PM Wednesday for the western slopes of the
Green and Adirondack Mountains as well as portions of
northeastern Vermont. As we begin to enter the high-res model
temporal resolution, it`ll be interesting to see the potential
for mountain wave activity given a 70-80 knot low level jet with
a forecasted inversion near mountain top level. These strong
winds will be monitored closely in the coming days as this has
the potential for a significant wind event across the North
Country.
Now, let`s talk heavy wet snow. Before the warm air advection
is able to displace the cold air in the lower levels, a warm
front and associated burst of isentropic lift should yield some
potentially significant values of heavy wet snow across portions
of southern Vermont. Snow ratios Tuesday night are expected to
be in the 8:1 range, maybe even lower, with 2-6 inches possible
across southern Vermont with a sharp gradient of little to no
snow accumulation near the International Border. This burst of
heavy wet snow is likely to coincide with increasing winds which
may increase the probability of power outages.
Last but not least, let`s talk rainfall and potential hydrology
issue. There is pretty good model consensus that we will see
between 0.75" to 1.5" of new rainfall associated with the storm
system on Wednesday. In addition, it looks like we could add
around a half of an inch of snow melt as well. This rain and
snow melt will likely trigger some rapid river responses on
Wednesday and Wednesday night but guidance continue to suggest
rivers will remain within bankful. We will continue to monitor
the flood threat as a cold ground is largely hydrophobic and all
rain will immediately run off into area rivers.
Rivers are likely to crest by Thursday morning with a few light
mountain snow showers possible with northwest flow aloft. There
is a potential for a decent shortwave to move across the region
Thursday night into Friday which could bring some minor snow
accumulation but shouldn`t be anything too impactful. Yet
another storm system looks to be on the horizon for next weekend
with models a little uncertain on the track. Several models
have been fluctuating between a Nor`easter and an inland runner
but the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance currently favors
an inland runner. If this happens, expect another round of
gusty winds and mixed precipitation. Stay tuned.
1237 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 347 AM EST Sunday...The potential for a significant
system to impact the North Country Tuesday night through
Wednesday continues to increase. Let`s go over a brief synopsis
of what is expected and then we will touch on the individual
elements and hazards. A deepening mid-latitude cyclone is
expected to move from the central US to the Great Lakes Region
and then the Ottawa Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
A strong high pressure system will continue to remain anchored
across eastern Quebec which will set up an impressively strong
pressure gradient across the North Country. In addition to the
strong gradient, a plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture will quickly
advect northward allowing for both moisture and warm air
advection across the region. With a strong warm front slated to
push through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, a brief
period of heavy wet snow is looking increasingly likely before
snow changes over to rain Wednesday night and melts much of this
snow and likely much of the snow that is currently falling.
Now, let`s discuss hazards.
First, let`s talk winds. The signal for strong to damaging
winds only continues to get stronger over the past several days.
Looking at past high wind events, there are several key
features of note: A low pressure system moving over the Ottawa
or St. Lawrence Valleys, strong high pressure to our northeast,
and a deepening mid-latitude cyclone. All three of these boxes
are checked off Tuesday night into Wednesday as a possible
sub-980 mb low moves across the Ottawa Valley Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. The probabilistic values based off the ECMWF
(which tends to be a little on the high side) continues to show
80-100% chance of wind gusts in excess of 55 mph and 40-60%
chance of winds in excess of 70 mph along the western slopes of
the Green and Adirondack Mountains. It`s hard to ignore these
signals when the conceptual model aligns so perfectly in this
scenario. Given this, we have issued a high wind watch from 10
PM Tuesday through 1 PM Wednesday for the western slopes of the
Green and Adirondack Mountains as well as portions of
northeastern Vermont. As we begin to enter the high-res model
temporal resolution, it`ll be interesting to see the potential
for mountain wave activity given a 70-80 knot low level jet with
a forecasted inversion near mountain top level. These strong
winds will be monitored closely in the coming days as this has
the potential for a significant wind event across the North
Country.
Now, let`s talk heavy wet snow. Before the warm air advection
is able to displace the cold air in the lower levels, a warm
front and associated burst of isentropic lift should yield some
potentially significant values of heavy wet snow across portions
of southern Vermont. Snow ratios Tuesday night are expected to
be in the 8:1 range, maybe even lower, with 2-6 inches possible
across southern Vermont with a sharp gradient of little to no
snow accumulation near the International Border. This burst of
heavy wet snow is likely to coincide with increasing winds which
may increase the probability of power outages.
Last but not least, let`s talk rainfall and potential hydrology
issue. There is pretty good model consensus that we will see
between 0.75" to 1.5" of new rainfall associated with the storm
system on Wednesday. In addition, it looks like we could add
around a half of an inch of snow melt as well. This rain and
snow melt will likely trigger some rapid river responses on
Wednesday and Wednesday night but guidance continue to suggest
rivers will remain within bankful. We will continue to monitor
the flood threat as a cold ground is largely hydrophobic and all
rain will immediately run off into area rivers.
Rivers are likely to crest by Thursday morning with a few light
mountain snow showers possible with northwest flow aloft. There
is a potential for a decent shortwave to move across the region
Thursday night into Friday which could bring some minor snow
accumulation but shouldn`t be anything too impactful. Yet
another storm system looks to be on the horizon for next weekend
with models a little uncertain on the track. Several models
have been fluctuating between a Nor`easter and an inland runner
but the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance currently favors
an inland runner. If this happens, expect another round of
gusty winds and mixed precipitation. Stay tuned.
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
it’s funny how the chef with a rudimentary meteorological education from the 80s can say all the above in four lines
In all seriousness this could be a big problem
