Winter Weather 22/23

The Weather Channel were laughing at the GFS model for the weekend storm this morning. Pretty much said you can ignore it.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
640 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 334 AM EST Tuesday...Ridging will build, which would provide
quiet weather, but not before a few more snow showers fall in the
Adirondacks and northern Vermont, mainly chance to slight chance
Thursday night. A dusting to a half an inch is expected in isolated
areas of the Adirondacks and northern Vermont. By Friday, dry
weather will likely prevail with winds out of the north. Highs
throughout the long term will be generally seasonable or just below
averages, in the 30s.

The latest run of the GFS has shifted southward for the potential
Saturday system, bringing it in better agreement with the ECMWF and
Canadian models. We`ll have to monitor how the 12Z run today trends
it, however, as this could just be a one-run instance. Otherwise, it
still portrays a parent low, now skimming the Great Lakes as it
moves through the Ohio Valley, and a secondary coastal low
strengthening off Virginia Beach and heading northeast to southern
New England, now remaining off the coast for its journey. The ECMWF
continues to keep any impacts to our south, and the Canadian leans
that way as well. Once the system moves onshore out West over the
next few days, we may have a better look at the potential for a
storm here with observations from upper air sites.

For now, we have been generally lowering PoPs to slight chance, with
chance in spots as trends continue the storm southward and away from
our area. With highs in the mid- to upper 30s Saturday, rain could
mix in with the expected snow for the valleys. We also have winds
shifting northeasterly Friday night/Saturday. After this, the flow
will likely shift back to its northerly position.

There`s also the distant potential for another system to move
through around midweek next week, but model agreement is still scant
that far out. As usual, the GFS is a touch faster than the ECMWF and
Canadian, while the other two seem to wrap the storm up in our
forecast area for longer. Again, it`s too soon to make any
definitive calls on this system. Currently forecasting chc PoPs
toward the end of the long term period for this.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2023

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Then, there`s another potential system early next week with models
showing a trough heading through the Great Lakes then Northeast.
However, the models are handling this trough differently, as the GFS
wants to bring a surface low from the Outer Banks out to the
Atlantic, and the ECMWF shows a coastal surface low hugging much
closer to southern New England as it deepens. The Canadian seems to
best resemble the ECMWF in this regard, resulting in these models
wanting more precip for our forecast area and the GFS wanting less.
Went with widespread 30-50% PoPs, with highest potential on Tuesday
and portions of the forecast area in the 50-60% range for PoPs. With
highs mostly in the 30s for this period, a rain/snow mix for the
valleys is again anticipated during the day.
 
saturday is a miss, tuesday still needs to be defined but im leaning south. Outside of this, its sitll a good pattern for the mountains and looks to continue for the month.
 
PXL_20230308_164029489.jpg
Click to expand...
Burnt mountain. 3-4 feet lightly worked up.
 
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