Harvey
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
This is persistent (something frozen in this time frame) but unfortunately so is this:
Winter Weather 22/23
- Thread starter jasonwx
- Start date
DomB
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2020
I have trouble reading the weather things (embarrassing, I know) but this looks bad even to me.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Today look for very warm air between 2-3k feet. The cold air is trapped in the Hudson Valley, but temps at elevation could reach 60. Oy.
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures over the next several days will average a bit
above normal. Though there will be some chances for light
precipitation over portions of the forecast area Sunday night
and Monday night, little in the way of impactful weather is
expected. There is potential for a stronger system to impact the
region by the end of next week into next weekend.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period will feature generally tranquil weather for the
middle of the week, but a storm system may bring more widespread
precipitation to the region towards the end of the week.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through much of
the long term period. More details below...
Thursday night through Saturday...This period will be the main
focus of the long term as ensemble and deterministic guidance
both continue to show the potential for a storm system somewhere
along the east coast during this timeframe. A strong southern
stream disturbance will track across the southern half of the
country Thursday into Friday, and then may phase with a northern
stream disturbance Friday or Saturday. This scenario could
bring widespread precipitation to the region for Friday and
Saturday. While the signal for a storm during this timeframe is
increasing, confidence remains very low regarding the timing,
duration, intensity, and type of precipitation we will see.
Guidance still shows large variations in the position of the
relevant upper-level features from run to run, which will have
big implications for the track of the surface low. Not
surprisingly, ensemble cluster analysis accordingly shows that
several potential storm evolutions remain on the table. Will
mention that probabilities of rain appear higher than those for
snow at this time for valley areas, but will not go into more
detail than that at this time due to low confidence. Run to run
changes in guidance are expected over the coming days, but
hopefully the large- scale evolution of this system will become
more clear early next week.
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures over the next several days will average a bit
above normal. Though there will be some chances for light
precipitation over portions of the forecast area Sunday night
and Monday night, little in the way of impactful weather is
expected. There is potential for a stronger system to impact the
region by the end of next week into next weekend.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period will feature generally tranquil weather for the
middle of the week, but a storm system may bring more widespread
precipitation to the region towards the end of the week.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through much of
the long term period. More details below...
Thursday night through Saturday...This period will be the main
focus of the long term as ensemble and deterministic guidance
both continue to show the potential for a storm system somewhere
along the east coast during this timeframe. A strong southern
stream disturbance will track across the southern half of the
country Thursday into Friday, and then may phase with a northern
stream disturbance Friday or Saturday. This scenario could
bring widespread precipitation to the region for Friday and
Saturday. While the signal for a storm during this timeframe is
increasing, confidence remains very low regarding the timing,
duration, intensity, and type of precipitation we will see.
Guidance still shows large variations in the position of the
relevant upper-level features from run to run, which will have
big implications for the track of the surface low. Not
surprisingly, ensemble cluster analysis accordingly shows that
several potential storm evolutions remain on the table. Will
mention that probabilities of rain appear higher than those for
snow at this time for valley areas, but will not go into more
detail than that at this time due to low confidence. Run to run
changes in guidance are expected over the coming days, but
hopefully the large- scale evolution of this system will become
more clear early next week.
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
616 AM EST Mon Jan 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather will continue into the middle of the
upcoming week with temperatures remaining a bit milder than normal.
A stronger system is expected to bring periods of rain and snow to
the area for the end of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main focus during the long-term forecast period will be on the
prospects of a potent, cross-country, southern stream storm system
that`s expected to impact the forecast area later this week into
next weekend. There`s a lot to figure out between now and then as
the main energy from this vigorous mid-level storm system,
associated with an intense Atmospheric River (AR) event that`s
impacting California, is still offshore the coast of California in
the Pacific Ocean. This storm system is expected to come onshore the
coast of California on Tuesday. As it tracks eastward, its expected
to become fragmented over the Rocky Mountains before re-organizing
over the Plains after its emergence out of the Rockies.
We start off the period Thursday morning with light precipitation,
courtesy of a northern stream shortwave and isentropic lifting ahead
of the storm system, overspreading at least parts of the forecast
area. As the main aforementioned storm attached to the southern
stream draws closer to the region, heavier precipitation will
overspread the area Thursday evening/night into Friday. As the storm
system quickly lifts northeast of the area, precipitation will
become lighter and more scattered Friday into Friday night. By
Saturday, any linger scattered precipitation will come to an end
from west to east as the storm system continues to lift further away
from the area.
As mentioned earlier, there is still a lot of details to iron out
with this storm system as there still remains quite a bit of spread
in model/ensemble guidance and run-to-run inconsistencies with
regards to the track, synoptic/mesoscale evolution of the pattern
and storm, timing, scope, etc. As far as precipitation type, it
still looks like we will see a combination of rain and snow (with
maybe some pellets of sleet) over the area with the northern
sections and mountain areas more favored for wintry precipitation
while the southern areas and valley areas are more favored to see
mostly rain. As far as timing, Thursday into Friday, p-types will
mainly be rain or a rain/snow mix at times over the valley areas
with p-types in the form of snow or a rain/snow mix at times over
the mountains. There could be some pellets of sleet mixed in at
times as well. Friday night into Saturday, colder air advects into
the region effectively changing all precipitation over to snow.
Coverage looks to be scattered during this time. A key factor in
determine the precise precipitation types (p-types) will be
determining the amount of available cold air reservoir and/or
production that this storm can generate. Furthermore, there is
potential for this storm to produce quite a bit of precipitation
being a cross country storm with Pacific origin tapping into Gulf of
Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean source regions. However, the
evolution and speed of the storm system will greatly impact this
potential. Bottom line, while the finer details and overall impacts
are uncertain, expect for a storm system to impact the region with
widespread precipitation late this week into next weekend. Most
areas are expected to see a combination of rain/snow (maybe a few
sleet pellets) with the valley areas favored to see mainly rain and
the mountains mainly wintry precipitation. Drier weather returns to
the area Saturday into Sunday as the storm system departs and high
pressure develops in its wake.
As far as temperatures, the long-term period will remain mild with
temperatures continuing to run above normal levels.
National Weather Service Albany NY
616 AM EST Mon Jan 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather will continue into the middle of the
upcoming week with temperatures remaining a bit milder than normal.
A stronger system is expected to bring periods of rain and snow to
the area for the end of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main focus during the long-term forecast period will be on the
prospects of a potent, cross-country, southern stream storm system
that`s expected to impact the forecast area later this week into
next weekend. There`s a lot to figure out between now and then as
the main energy from this vigorous mid-level storm system,
associated with an intense Atmospheric River (AR) event that`s
impacting California, is still offshore the coast of California in
the Pacific Ocean. This storm system is expected to come onshore the
coast of California on Tuesday. As it tracks eastward, its expected
to become fragmented over the Rocky Mountains before re-organizing
over the Plains after its emergence out of the Rockies.
We start off the period Thursday morning with light precipitation,
courtesy of a northern stream shortwave and isentropic lifting ahead
of the storm system, overspreading at least parts of the forecast
area. As the main aforementioned storm attached to the southern
stream draws closer to the region, heavier precipitation will
overspread the area Thursday evening/night into Friday. As the storm
system quickly lifts northeast of the area, precipitation will
become lighter and more scattered Friday into Friday night. By
Saturday, any linger scattered precipitation will come to an end
from west to east as the storm system continues to lift further away
from the area.
As mentioned earlier, there is still a lot of details to iron out
with this storm system as there still remains quite a bit of spread
in model/ensemble guidance and run-to-run inconsistencies with
regards to the track, synoptic/mesoscale evolution of the pattern
and storm, timing, scope, etc. As far as precipitation type, it
still looks like we will see a combination of rain and snow (with
maybe some pellets of sleet) over the area with the northern
sections and mountain areas more favored for wintry precipitation
while the southern areas and valley areas are more favored to see
mostly rain. As far as timing, Thursday into Friday, p-types will
mainly be rain or a rain/snow mix at times over the valley areas
with p-types in the form of snow or a rain/snow mix at times over
the mountains. There could be some pellets of sleet mixed in at
times as well. Friday night into Saturday, colder air advects into
the region effectively changing all precipitation over to snow.
Coverage looks to be scattered during this time. A key factor in
determine the precise precipitation types (p-types) will be
determining the amount of available cold air reservoir and/or
production that this storm can generate. Furthermore, there is
potential for this storm to produce quite a bit of precipitation
being a cross country storm with Pacific origin tapping into Gulf of
Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean source regions. However, the
evolution and speed of the storm system will greatly impact this
potential. Bottom line, while the finer details and overall impacts
are uncertain, expect for a storm system to impact the region with
widespread precipitation late this week into next weekend. Most
areas are expected to see a combination of rain/snow (maybe a few
sleet pellets) with the valley areas favored to see mainly rain and
the mountains mainly wintry precipitation. Drier weather returns to
the area Saturday into Sunday as the storm system departs and high
pressure develops in its wake.
As far as temperatures, the long-term period will remain mild with
temperatures continuing to run above normal levels.
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
We need snow
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
Zzzzz, one of the worst starts to winter in recent memory. I blame Jason from his post a few weeks ago on snow and cold
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
What I say, what I say.
