saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
931 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The start of a week long period of mild early winter weather
begins today with two systems of note during the period. The
first arrives over the holiday weekend, with another on track to
affect the region toward the middle of next week. While there
could be a little wintry precipitation with these systems, the
majority should fall as light rain or showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 930 AM EST Thursday...No major changes needed to the
forecast this morning other than to increase wind gusts in the
Champlain Valley a little bit through the day, and adjust temps
through the morning to be a little cooler east of the Greens.
Otherwise, we should see increasing sunshine mid-day to early
afternoon under a scattered to broken mid/high cloud deck before
cloudier skies return later this evening.
Prior discussion...
The warm front which brought periodic light snows/flurries to
northern counties yesterday continues to lift north and east
into southern QE/northern ME this morning with broad southerly
flow setting up across our area. Mean 925 hPa profiles around 5C
would normally support highs in the 50s. However, with limited
PBL mixing, 40s should be the rule across the area today under
variable clouds, which will tend to thicken and lower toward
evening, especially across northern NY/northwestern VT. These
values are some 10-15 degrees above late December norms, and
will kick off a week long period of very mild early winter
weather as strengthening high pressure establishes itself across
the western Atlantic offshore waters.
Clouds continue to thicken and lower tonight from northwest to
southeast, and given deepening moisture beneath a pronounced
mid level synoptic-scale inversion some patchy mist/drizzle will be
possible across the Adirondacks/SLV as evidenced by most recent NAM
3km visibility progs. Lows tonight holding mild under light
southerly flow - mainly lower to mid 30s east, and 35 to 40 from the
Champlain Valley west.
By Friday clouds will continue across the area as a weak frontal
system advances slowly eastward from the Great Lakes/southern
Canada. Somewhat deeper moisture streaming northeasterly in the
confluent flow mid level flow ahead of this boundary may spark a few
light showers across the Dacks/SLV by later in the afternoon, with
mainly dry, albeit cloudy weather continuing in VT. Highs continue
well above normal, topping out from 45 to 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 331 AM EST Thursday...Friday night sees precipitation move into
the St Lawrence Valley as as steady plume of warm moist air from the
Gulf of Mexico moves in ahead of the upper trough across the Mid-
West US. This boundary is slow to move and remains draped across the
International Border through midday Saturday. Models continue to
show warmer trend, so concerns of a wintry mix Saturday morning
looks to be relegated to the highest peaks now. A short wave trough
move into the region Saturday evening which will bring a bit more
widespread rain and low cloud cover, leading to a rather soggy start
to the New Year.
Rain and unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Sunday with
a chance for some snow, mainly in the higher elevations, as the
upper trough passes Sunday afternoon. No expected hydro concerns as
overall QPF looks to be 0.25" - 0.60"
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 331 AM EST Thursday...A brief break in the wet weather on
Monday to start the long term before the next system moves in on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Models show this system to be a bit more
progressive, arriving earlier on Tuesday morning, which looks to
bring widespread snow at the start. While this could have impacts on
the Tuesday morning commute, temperatures again warm significantly
and precipitation changes over to rain in most locations later in
the day. This system will feature another long plume of moisture
that feature a second low forming along the boundary late Wednesday,
leading to another round of precipitation for Thursday as well.
As with the prior system, temperatures look to be unseasonably warm,
peaking with highs the mid 50s on Wednesday.
National Weather Service Burlington VT
931 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The start of a week long period of mild early winter weather
begins today with two systems of note during the period. The
first arrives over the holiday weekend, with another on track to
affect the region toward the middle of next week. While there
could be a little wintry precipitation with these systems, the
majority should fall as light rain or showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 930 AM EST Thursday...No major changes needed to the
forecast this morning other than to increase wind gusts in the
Champlain Valley a little bit through the day, and adjust temps
through the morning to be a little cooler east of the Greens.
Otherwise, we should see increasing sunshine mid-day to early
afternoon under a scattered to broken mid/high cloud deck before
cloudier skies return later this evening.
Prior discussion...
The warm front which brought periodic light snows/flurries to
northern counties yesterday continues to lift north and east
into southern QE/northern ME this morning with broad southerly
flow setting up across our area. Mean 925 hPa profiles around 5C
would normally support highs in the 50s. However, with limited
PBL mixing, 40s should be the rule across the area today under
variable clouds, which will tend to thicken and lower toward
evening, especially across northern NY/northwestern VT. These
values are some 10-15 degrees above late December norms, and
will kick off a week long period of very mild early winter
weather as strengthening high pressure establishes itself across
the western Atlantic offshore waters.
Clouds continue to thicken and lower tonight from northwest to
southeast, and given deepening moisture beneath a pronounced
mid level synoptic-scale inversion some patchy mist/drizzle will be
possible across the Adirondacks/SLV as evidenced by most recent NAM
3km visibility progs. Lows tonight holding mild under light
southerly flow - mainly lower to mid 30s east, and 35 to 40 from the
Champlain Valley west.
By Friday clouds will continue across the area as a weak frontal
system advances slowly eastward from the Great Lakes/southern
Canada. Somewhat deeper moisture streaming northeasterly in the
confluent flow mid level flow ahead of this boundary may spark a few
light showers across the Dacks/SLV by later in the afternoon, with
mainly dry, albeit cloudy weather continuing in VT. Highs continue
well above normal, topping out from 45 to 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 331 AM EST Thursday...Friday night sees precipitation move into
the St Lawrence Valley as as steady plume of warm moist air from the
Gulf of Mexico moves in ahead of the upper trough across the Mid-
West US. This boundary is slow to move and remains draped across the
International Border through midday Saturday. Models continue to
show warmer trend, so concerns of a wintry mix Saturday morning
looks to be relegated to the highest peaks now. A short wave trough
move into the region Saturday evening which will bring a bit more
widespread rain and low cloud cover, leading to a rather soggy start
to the New Year.
Rain and unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Sunday with
a chance for some snow, mainly in the higher elevations, as the
upper trough passes Sunday afternoon. No expected hydro concerns as
overall QPF looks to be 0.25" - 0.60"
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 331 AM EST Thursday...A brief break in the wet weather on
Monday to start the long term before the next system moves in on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Models show this system to be a bit more
progressive, arriving earlier on Tuesday morning, which looks to
bring widespread snow at the start. While this could have impacts on
the Tuesday morning commute, temperatures again warm significantly
and precipitation changes over to rain in most locations later in
the day. This system will feature another long plume of moisture
that feature a second low forming along the boundary late Wednesday,
leading to another round of precipitation for Thursday as well.
As with the prior system, temperatures look to be unseasonably warm,
peaking with highs the mid 50s on Wednesday.
