Winter Weather 21/22

[saratogahalfday]

Looks like Killington/Pico up to Stowe is the place to be!

 

[MarzNC]

Why not fly into Sky Harbor, then over to Albuquerque? Taos is very high on my list for my next trip west.

I fly Southwest for ski trips. 2 free checked bags is a major reason why. But in general I've been happy with SW pre-pandemic.

SW managed to figure out a way for me to get to ABQ a day early. Won't be the first time that a trip to Taos has been impacted by snow far away from NM. My first trip the weather issue was in . . . Baltimore.

 

[Low Angle Life]

I realize the weather west of Kingston at elevation is usually much different than the weather down in the valley. However, you have to consider the particular weather system. No doubt the Cats will get snow on the back end, when/if Kingston stays mixed. However, as Jason always points out, warm air always wins. If there’s a warm nose/warm air aloft it’s hard for even the elevation to the west of Kingston to overcome that with this kind of system….

Weird stuff happens in the western cats, everything north west of Galli Curci Road is in its own entirely different zone.

 

[Harvey]

GFS still farther south

 

[NYSkiBlog]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
930 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather will persist through Wednesday. Temperatures are
expected to rise above normal by the mid week, however, a slow
moving cold front with multiple disturbances moving along it may
bring wintry precipitation back into the region Wednesday night
and lasting into Friday with precipitation types depending on
the exact placement of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Winter Storm Watch for Herkimer, Hamilton, northern Fulton,
northern Warren and northern Washington Counties 7 am Thursday
to 1 pm Friday...

Precipitation begins to spread over our region Wednesday night
as a west southwest to east northeast low level boundary with a
very tight thermal gradient slowly settles south, aided by
strong low level ridging building across southeastern Canada.
Any mixed precipitation north of the Mohawk Valley should
change to snow quickly, while a mix of rain snow occurs in the
precipitation transition zone. Temperatures will be just below
freezing in northern areas, around or just above freezing in
most other areas, as precipitation causes temperatures to fall
to near wet bulb levels.

The front will slowly settle south while a warm nose aloft is
just to the north of the surface freezing line. There is a lot
of spread in sources of guidance/ensembles as to the presence
and strength of a warm nose aloft and surface cold layer. There
should be a fairly broad precipitation transition zone that
settles south through Thursday, Thursday night and Friday. This
suggests rain changing to a period of freezing rain, sleet and
eventually snow. The areal extent of the precipitation
transition zone, depth of the warm nose and depth of the
surface based cold layer will determine how much sleet, freezing
rain and snow falls from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and
southern Vermont and points south. Some areas could see
considerable sleet and freezing rain, especially the Capital
Region to Berkshires and points south but there is a lot of
uncertainty. Additional winter headlines will likely be needed
when confidence increases in the evolution of precipitation
types.

 

[Harvey]

I've never seen this many counties under a winter storm warning.

Looks like the GFS has taken a small (50 mile?) jog to the north this am.

I would think that this storm track, if it verifies, should deliver snow to the Cats too. But NWS seems insistent on a mix for the Cats.

 

[jasonwx]

I’m loosing confidence in the cats doing well
Also a winter storm warning doesn’t mean just snow

But many more runs to go

 

[DomB]

I’m loosing confidence in the cats doing well
Also a winter storm warning doesn’t mean just snow

But many more runs to go

How are we feeling about Gore, sir? These images look good to the untrained, unprofessional observer (me).

 

[Campgottagopee]

Local boys have us in the 6 - 12 range. I'll be happy with any of that.

 

[tirolski]

A good thing is even if it starts out wet then snows it's much better than the other way around.