The general advice from the College Counselors at my daughter's prep school to seniors . . . and their parents . . . was to make sure that they were applying to schools that felt like a good fit. Meaning did the student think that living at the school would be comfortable for intangible reasons.
I'm a big believer in this. I know a few people who sent their kids to schools, in some cases, very expensive schools, and ultimately, it wasn't a good fit. Their kids ended up transferring to other schools, and they had spent a lot of money for nothing. It's important to recognize whether someone will do well at a large school, with 20K or more students, large lecture hall classes and that sort of thing, or whether they will be better able to adjust at a school with 5K - 10K students, in a quieter environment, smaller classes, and more personal interactions with professors.
There are so many other considerations as well. In the first two years, a lot of classes are "general education" classes, so it's not necessarily worth spending a lot of money in those years. The other thing is so many kids end up changing their plans in those years, so it's important to be mindful of that as well. They can always transfer to another school after the first two years, though in some cases, that may be difficult, especially if they've built strong relationships with friends at their current school.
As New Yorkers, we know our taxes are high, but I've always believed that access to SUNY schools is where we get the payback. Many SUNY schools are very highly ranked, and they are just so much more affordable than other schools. When my kids were looking for schools, I had told them they could go to any school they wanted, and I would pay for it, as long as the school started with S.U.N.Y. It worked out quite well for my daughter. She graduated with a Masters in Education from SUNY Plattsburgh and got a teaching job in a small school district making a very nice salary. My son is a junior at SUNY Geneseo and he loves it there. Time will tell how things work out for him, but he's bright and he works hard, so I'm not worried about his future.
I also believe that if you're hard-working and good at what you do, sooner or later, it will work out for you. I was a complete F-up in college, but I was always a very hard worker, and things have turned out very well for me. I'm just not one of those people who believe that the college you attend is going to be a significant factor in your success over the long term. It's who you are that's really important.