Low Angle Life
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2021
First real flakes of the season flying here in NENJ.
Fall Weather 2023
- Thread starter Campgottagopee
- Start date
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
949 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly lift northward today into Saturday,
bringing milder temperatures despite considerable cloudiness. A
strong cold front will bring a period of heavy rain and gusty
winds late Sunday into Sunday night, with rain possibly ending
as snow Monday morning as colder air surges into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
In addition to the heavy rain, winds will become gusty,
especially in higher terrain, where winds could gust over 40 mph
by Sunday afternoon. Some chances for even stronger winds but
how much mixing of the strong winds to the surface in the
heavier rain is in question. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper
50s with upper 40s to near 50 higher terrain.
Upper energy begins to exit and lift north and east Sunday night
as the leading edge of a tight boundary layer thermal gradient
and wind shift track through our region Sunday night. There are
still disagreements in guidance as to the timing of the onset of
the passage of the low level cold front, whether it is before
midnight or after midnight. Either way, cooling will be
occurring by daybreak Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Our main focus for the long term period will be on Monday when a
changeover to a period of heavy, wet snow is looking increasingly
likely on the backside of our impressive cold front from Sunday
night.
Even valley areas of the Greater Capital District could see a
changeover to wet snow Monday morning as temperatures and dew points
drop into the low to mid 30s. With such favorable dynamics in play,
forecast soundings also show high omega/lift intersecting the
dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ) so the hill towns in the
Helderbergs, Taconics, and foothills of the southern
Adirondacks/Catskills as well as the higher terrain will likely see
a period of moderate to even heavy snowfall rates.
Highlight the southern Adirondacks in its 40 - 60% range for impacts
while the northern/eastern Catskills and southern Vermont range 20 -
30%. Helderbergs/Taconics and other hill towns are only in the 10-
20% range. Overall, snow amounts look light to moderate with WPC
Winter Storm Outlook showing the greatest probabilities for warning
level snow amounts (7" +) limited to the southern/western
Adirondacks. This is likely tied to the low SLRs and rather short
duration for heavy/wet snow confined mainly to late Sunday night
through midday Monday. Some snow loading issues from heavy/wet snow
will need to be monitored for these higher terrain areas.
To exacerbate matters, west-northwest winds will be strong and
gusty throughout the day Monday with gusts reaching 30-40mph,
potentially higher in the higher terrain areas. Wind advisories
may also be needed. The strong winds and weight of heavy wet
snow may necessitate winter weather advisories or even isolated
winter storm warnings to help us message snow loading impacts
for Monday, even if exact snow amounts technically fall below
warning criteria.
The rest of the week looks fairly quiet and seasonable with
potentially an Alberta Clipper dragging an arctic air mass into
the Northeast mid-week. Depending on timing and the
thermal/moisture gradient, the front may lead to snow showers or
even snow squalls but this is still a low confidence forecast.
National Weather Service Albany NY
949 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly lift northward today into Saturday,
bringing milder temperatures despite considerable cloudiness. A
strong cold front will bring a period of heavy rain and gusty
winds late Sunday into Sunday night, with rain possibly ending
as snow Monday morning as colder air surges into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
In addition to the heavy rain, winds will become gusty,
especially in higher terrain, where winds could gust over 40 mph
by Sunday afternoon. Some chances for even stronger winds but
how much mixing of the strong winds to the surface in the
heavier rain is in question. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper
50s with upper 40s to near 50 higher terrain.
Upper energy begins to exit and lift north and east Sunday night
as the leading edge of a tight boundary layer thermal gradient
and wind shift track through our region Sunday night. There are
still disagreements in guidance as to the timing of the onset of
the passage of the low level cold front, whether it is before
midnight or after midnight. Either way, cooling will be
occurring by daybreak Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Our main focus for the long term period will be on Monday when a
changeover to a period of heavy, wet snow is looking increasingly
likely on the backside of our impressive cold front from Sunday
night.
Even valley areas of the Greater Capital District could see a
changeover to wet snow Monday morning as temperatures and dew points
drop into the low to mid 30s. With such favorable dynamics in play,
forecast soundings also show high omega/lift intersecting the
dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ) so the hill towns in the
Helderbergs, Taconics, and foothills of the southern
Adirondacks/Catskills as well as the higher terrain will likely see
a period of moderate to even heavy snowfall rates.
Highlight the southern Adirondacks in its 40 - 60% range for impacts
while the northern/eastern Catskills and southern Vermont range 20 -
30%. Helderbergs/Taconics and other hill towns are only in the 10-
20% range. Overall, snow amounts look light to moderate with WPC
Winter Storm Outlook showing the greatest probabilities for warning
level snow amounts (7" +) limited to the southern/western
Adirondacks. This is likely tied to the low SLRs and rather short
duration for heavy/wet snow confined mainly to late Sunday night
through midday Monday. Some snow loading issues from heavy/wet snow
will need to be monitored for these higher terrain areas.
To exacerbate matters, west-northwest winds will be strong and
gusty throughout the day Monday with gusts reaching 30-40mph,
potentially higher in the higher terrain areas. Wind advisories
may also be needed. The strong winds and weight of heavy wet
snow may necessitate winter weather advisories or even isolated
winter storm warnings to help us message snow loading impacts
for Monday, even if exact snow amounts technically fall below
warning criteria.
The rest of the week looks fairly quiet and seasonable with
potentially an Alberta Clipper dragging an arctic air mass into
the Northeast mid-week. Depending on timing and the
thermal/moisture gradient, the front may lead to snow showers or
even snow squalls but this is still a low confidence forecast.
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
744 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will impact the region Sunday through
Monday with precipitation starting out as rain, locally heavy,
then changing over to wet snow. Gusty winds will accompany this
storm with some gusts up to 40 mph. In the wake of this storm, a
few lake effect snow showers are possible Monday night into
Tuesday and again on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flood Watch in effect for the Capital Region and points south
and east from Sunday afternoon through Monday
Winter Storm Watch in effect for all of Herkimer, Hamilton and
Bennington counties from Sunday evening/night through Monday
Our storm system for Sunday and Monday looks to be taking a
slightly eastward shift in its storm track. This has resulted in
a slightly decreasing threat for heavy rain, but an increased
threat for a heavy, wet snowfall, even across many valley
areas.
By Sunday night, the cold front will begin to cross eastern New
York and approach western New England. The upper trough will
become negatively tilted and this will result in secondary
surface low development along the front across the mid-Atlantic
states. This surface low will quickly intensify as it lifts
northeastward along the coast toward eastern New England. Our
region will be located within the right entrance region of a
160+ kt upper-level jet and this will support plenty of lift for
continued widespread precipitation on the cold side of the
system.
Based on the latest track of the surface low, bands of heavy
rainfall will mostly remain to the east of our area, though some
pockets of heavy rain are still possible for areas mainly south
and east of Albany. This is where rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches remain possible and also a continued flood threat. As a
result, we have trimmed some areas out of the flood watch which
includes Schenectady, Saratoga, Warren and Washington counties.
Will monitor trends to see if any additional areas may be able
to be trimmed out. Areas within a flood watch still have the
potential for some minor flooding in urban and poor drainage
areas and some river flooding is also still possible. See more
in the hydrology section below.
As colder air builds in behind the cold front Sunday evening,
temperatures will fall to the lower to mid-30s where
precipitation will change over to a heavy, wet snowfall. This
will occur first across western areas and the higher elevations
(later in the valleys) and gradually progress eastward overnight
into Monday morning. Strong mid-level frontogenesis should
result in some bands of heavier snowfall where rates, per latest
SPC HREF, could reach 0.5 inches per hour.
With more QPF associated with snow versus rain, snowfall totals
have increased in some areas. This had led to the Winter Storm
Watch to be expanded to include southern Herkimer and Bennington
counties. Areas within the Winter Storm Watch could see between
5 and 10 inches of snow. The heavy, wet nature of this snow
combined with gusty winds could result in some downed trees and
wires resulting in some power outages.
As the surface low moves into Maine by Monday afternoon,
snowfall will gradually taper off from south to north, though
some lake-effect and upslope snow showers are expected to
continue into Monday evening for areas outside of the Hudson
Valley. It will be much cooler on Monday with highs staying in
the 30s. Gusty winds will be rather widespread on Monday with
gusts between 30 and 40 mph, strongest across the Mohawk Valley
into the Capital District and Berkshires. While we should
remain under wind advisory criteria, it would be ideal to ensure
any outdoor objects, especially holiday decorations, are
properly secured.
National Weather Service Albany NY
744 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will impact the region Sunday through
Monday with precipitation starting out as rain, locally heavy,
then changing over to wet snow. Gusty winds will accompany this
storm with some gusts up to 40 mph. In the wake of this storm, a
few lake effect snow showers are possible Monday night into
Tuesday and again on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flood Watch in effect for the Capital Region and points south
and east from Sunday afternoon through Monday
Winter Storm Watch in effect for all of Herkimer, Hamilton and
Bennington counties from Sunday evening/night through Monday
Our storm system for Sunday and Monday looks to be taking a
slightly eastward shift in its storm track. This has resulted in
a slightly decreasing threat for heavy rain, but an increased
threat for a heavy, wet snowfall, even across many valley
areas.
By Sunday night, the cold front will begin to cross eastern New
York and approach western New England. The upper trough will
become negatively tilted and this will result in secondary
surface low development along the front across the mid-Atlantic
states. This surface low will quickly intensify as it lifts
northeastward along the coast toward eastern New England. Our
region will be located within the right entrance region of a
160+ kt upper-level jet and this will support plenty of lift for
continued widespread precipitation on the cold side of the
system.
Based on the latest track of the surface low, bands of heavy
rainfall will mostly remain to the east of our area, though some
pockets of heavy rain are still possible for areas mainly south
and east of Albany. This is where rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches remain possible and also a continued flood threat. As a
result, we have trimmed some areas out of the flood watch which
includes Schenectady, Saratoga, Warren and Washington counties.
Will monitor trends to see if any additional areas may be able
to be trimmed out. Areas within a flood watch still have the
potential for some minor flooding in urban and poor drainage
areas and some river flooding is also still possible. See more
in the hydrology section below.
As colder air builds in behind the cold front Sunday evening,
temperatures will fall to the lower to mid-30s where
precipitation will change over to a heavy, wet snowfall. This
will occur first across western areas and the higher elevations
(later in the valleys) and gradually progress eastward overnight
into Monday morning. Strong mid-level frontogenesis should
result in some bands of heavier snowfall where rates, per latest
SPC HREF, could reach 0.5 inches per hour.
With more QPF associated with snow versus rain, snowfall totals
have increased in some areas. This had led to the Winter Storm
Watch to be expanded to include southern Herkimer and Bennington
counties. Areas within the Winter Storm Watch could see between
5 and 10 inches of snow. The heavy, wet nature of this snow
combined with gusty winds could result in some downed trees and
wires resulting in some power outages.
As the surface low moves into Maine by Monday afternoon,
snowfall will gradually taper off from south to north, though
some lake-effect and upslope snow showers are expected to
continue into Monday evening for areas outside of the Hudson
Valley. It will be much cooler on Monday with highs staying in
the 30s. Gusty winds will be rather widespread on Monday with
gusts between 30 and 40 mph, strongest across the Mohawk Valley
into the Capital District and Berkshires. While we should
remain under wind advisory criteria, it would be ideal to ensure
any outdoor objects, especially holiday decorations, are
properly secured.
rfreeman
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
If that is accurate it looks like quite a few areas could come out of this event closer to having a large part of the mountain open even if the rain part puts at risk the snowmaking base on the few now open trails.
Particularly as there could be good snowmaking weather mid week, we could see more open next Saturday than was open yesterday.
All the more so as it will likely be a heavy base building snow most places.
Particularly as there could be good snowmaking weather mid week, we could see more open next Saturday than was open yesterday.
All the more so as it will likely be a heavy base building snow most places.
