Harvey
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
That is unusual. But you can see it in the radar.
Fall Weather 2023
- Thread starter Campgottagopee
- Start date
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
Another big Gore storm with rain at WF
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
727 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will overspread the area this evening and continue
into early Monday morning. Mainly rain is expected for valley areas
with mainly snow for elevations above 1500 feet this evening then
mixing with rain overnight. Steady precipitation will taper off to
showers early Monday and lake effect snows will develop off both
Lakes Erie and Ontario which will continue through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Expected QPF amounts are higher than previous expected so looking
at greater snowfall accumulations. Expecting 2 to 4 inches with
higher amounts of 4 to 6 inches above 2000 feet across the
southern Adirondacks. There areal extent of the higher snowfall
is not large enough to warrant a winter weather advisory for
snow; will handle with special weather statements as needed for
this evening as snowfall rates or around an inch an hour will be
possible for a period this evening.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upgrade to Lake Effect Warning for Hamilton and northern Herkimer
counties for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
significant lake effect snow accumulations.
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for lake effect snow for southern
Herkimer County for Tuesday and Tuesday night for the potential of
7+ inches of lake effect snow.
Brisk and gusty westerly winds Monday and Tuesday with gusts into
the 30s.
Steady precipitation tapers off as a cold front sweeps across the
region early in the day. Colder air advection commences and
conditions quickly become favorable for the development of lake
effect snow off of both lakes Erie and Ontario with multiple lake
connection. Short waves will rotate about the Hudson`s Bay low
through the period bringing reinforcing shots of colder air
into the region.
The focus off of Lake Ontario will initially be mainly north of
Route 8 across northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties in the early
afternoon then shifts southward and is expected to remain fairly
steady state across northern Herkimer County and well into Hamilton
through the night. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times
are expected within the heaviest snow bands. Lake effect will shift
southward Tuesday and is expected to impact the Mohawk Valley
and possibly across the Capital Region during the afternoon then
shifting farther southward at night. Along with the lake effect
there will be snow showers in respond to the short waves
approaching and passing over the region. Expecting upslope snow
showers across the higher terrain east of the Hudson River
Valley especially across the higher terrain of the southern
Greens.
Lake Effect Warning: Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16 inches
with locally higher amounts where the lake effect band persists
especially across northern Herkimer County.
Winter Storm Watch for lake effect potential for 7+ inches. This is
most likely to occur in the vicinity of Route 8 with lesser amounts
of 3 to 6 inches south of that including impacting the NYS Thruway
Tuesday afternoon.
National Weather Service Albany NY
727 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will overspread the area this evening and continue
into early Monday morning. Mainly rain is expected for valley areas
with mainly snow for elevations above 1500 feet this evening then
mixing with rain overnight. Steady precipitation will taper off to
showers early Monday and lake effect snows will develop off both
Lakes Erie and Ontario which will continue through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Expected QPF amounts are higher than previous expected so looking
at greater snowfall accumulations. Expecting 2 to 4 inches with
higher amounts of 4 to 6 inches above 2000 feet across the
southern Adirondacks. There areal extent of the higher snowfall
is not large enough to warrant a winter weather advisory for
snow; will handle with special weather statements as needed for
this evening as snowfall rates or around an inch an hour will be
possible for a period this evening.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upgrade to Lake Effect Warning for Hamilton and northern Herkimer
counties for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
significant lake effect snow accumulations.
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for lake effect snow for southern
Herkimer County for Tuesday and Tuesday night for the potential of
7+ inches of lake effect snow.
Brisk and gusty westerly winds Monday and Tuesday with gusts into
the 30s.
Steady precipitation tapers off as a cold front sweeps across the
region early in the day. Colder air advection commences and
conditions quickly become favorable for the development of lake
effect snow off of both lakes Erie and Ontario with multiple lake
connection. Short waves will rotate about the Hudson`s Bay low
through the period bringing reinforcing shots of colder air
into the region.
The focus off of Lake Ontario will initially be mainly north of
Route 8 across northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties in the early
afternoon then shifts southward and is expected to remain fairly
steady state across northern Herkimer County and well into Hamilton
through the night. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times
are expected within the heaviest snow bands. Lake effect will shift
southward Tuesday and is expected to impact the Mohawk Valley
and possibly across the Capital Region during the afternoon then
shifting farther southward at night. Along with the lake effect
there will be snow showers in respond to the short waves
approaching and passing over the region. Expecting upslope snow
showers across the higher terrain east of the Hudson River
Valley especially across the higher terrain of the southern
Greens.
Lake Effect Warning: Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16 inches
with locally higher amounts where the lake effect band persists
especially across northern Herkimer County.
Winter Storm Watch for lake effect potential for 7+ inches. This is
most likely to occur in the vicinity of Route 8 with lesser amounts
of 3 to 6 inches south of that including impacting the NYS Thruway
Tuesday afternoon.
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Tug gonna get blasted
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
Gore must have got at least 4-6 inches?
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
636 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2023
SYNOPSIS...
Steady precipitation will taper off early this morning, as low
pressure quickly tracks into Maine. In its wake colder air will
start to filter in today with breezy conditions, resulting in
heavy lake effect snow bands developing off Lake Ontario which
will continue through Tuesday. The heaviest snowfall is expected
across the western Adirondacks, although moderate accumulations
may occur into the western Mohawk Valley with lighter snow
showers elsewhere.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake Effect Snow Warning for northern Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties from 12 PM today through 12 AM Wednesday...
Flow trajectory looks to be fairly steady state through
tonight, with forecast soundings from the NAM indicating
equilibrium levels increasing to up to 650 mb by early Tue
morning with Moderate/Extreme lake-induced instability. This
should result in snowfall rates increasing to 1-2"/hour across
N. Herkimer into Hamilton Counties. This is supported by 00Z
HREF max snow ratios. Inland extent is also expected to increase
(CSTAR research), as the curvature of the trough favors an
upstream multi-lake moisture connection. So the heaviest snow
bands could extent well into Hamilton County. Additional
accumulations of 6-12" should fall in the most persistent bands.
Outside of the snow bands, just widely scattered snow showers
expected with perhaps a dusting in some spots. It will turn
colder, with lows ranging from the upper 10s in the mountains to
mid 20s in valleys. A westerly wind will persist, with
occasional gusts around 20-25 mph.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lake Effect Snow Warning for northern Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties from 12 PM today through 12 AM Wednesday...
Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow for southern
Herkimer County from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday...
Total accumulations in N. Herkimer and Hamilton Counties
expected to range from 7-14" with locally higher amounts in the
most persistent bands, with 3-6" in S. Herkimer just north of
the Thruway. As the snow bands shift south, they could extend
down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District towards the
evening commute time. Residence time will not be long, however a
quick burst of snow could lead to some brief travel issues.
Will continue to monitor, and for now will at least increase
PoPs to likely into the Capital District for a period of snow
showers. It will become breezy/gusty Tue afternoon, with W-NW
winds gusting 25-35 mph in favored areas. High temperatures will
also be below normal with highs only in the 30s in lower
elevations and 20s in the mountains.
Another disturbance looks to pass through in the NW cyclonic
flow regime Wed afternoon into the evening, which will lead to
mainly scattered snow showers across the western Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley. With dry ambient environment, no precip is
expected outside of this area. Temperatures will remain below
normal both for highs Wed and lows Wed night under the influence
of the upper level trough.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A period of fair weather is possible Saturday through early
Sunday as high pressure builds across. However, the next system
approaching from the south and west could allow for clouds and
spotty precipitation to develop by late Sunday. There could be
enough cold air, at least in the lower levels, to allow P-type
to initially favor snow or a wintry mix for some areas.
National Weather Service Albany NY
636 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2023
SYNOPSIS...
Steady precipitation will taper off early this morning, as low
pressure quickly tracks into Maine. In its wake colder air will
start to filter in today with breezy conditions, resulting in
heavy lake effect snow bands developing off Lake Ontario which
will continue through Tuesday. The heaviest snowfall is expected
across the western Adirondacks, although moderate accumulations
may occur into the western Mohawk Valley with lighter snow
showers elsewhere.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake Effect Snow Warning for northern Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties from 12 PM today through 12 AM Wednesday...
Flow trajectory looks to be fairly steady state through
tonight, with forecast soundings from the NAM indicating
equilibrium levels increasing to up to 650 mb by early Tue
morning with Moderate/Extreme lake-induced instability. This
should result in snowfall rates increasing to 1-2"/hour across
N. Herkimer into Hamilton Counties. This is supported by 00Z
HREF max snow ratios. Inland extent is also expected to increase
(CSTAR research), as the curvature of the trough favors an
upstream multi-lake moisture connection. So the heaviest snow
bands could extent well into Hamilton County. Additional
accumulations of 6-12" should fall in the most persistent bands.
Outside of the snow bands, just widely scattered snow showers
expected with perhaps a dusting in some spots. It will turn
colder, with lows ranging from the upper 10s in the mountains to
mid 20s in valleys. A westerly wind will persist, with
occasional gusts around 20-25 mph.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lake Effect Snow Warning for northern Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties from 12 PM today through 12 AM Wednesday...
Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow for southern
Herkimer County from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday...
Total accumulations in N. Herkimer and Hamilton Counties
expected to range from 7-14" with locally higher amounts in the
most persistent bands, with 3-6" in S. Herkimer just north of
the Thruway. As the snow bands shift south, they could extend
down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District towards the
evening commute time. Residence time will not be long, however a
quick burst of snow could lead to some brief travel issues.
Will continue to monitor, and for now will at least increase
PoPs to likely into the Capital District for a period of snow
showers. It will become breezy/gusty Tue afternoon, with W-NW
winds gusting 25-35 mph in favored areas. High temperatures will
also be below normal with highs only in the 30s in lower
elevations and 20s in the mountains.
Another disturbance looks to pass through in the NW cyclonic
flow regime Wed afternoon into the evening, which will lead to
mainly scattered snow showers across the western Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley. With dry ambient environment, no precip is
expected outside of this area. Temperatures will remain below
normal both for highs Wed and lows Wed night under the influence
of the upper level trough.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A period of fair weather is possible Saturday through early
Sunday as high pressure builds across. However, the next system
approaching from the south and west could allow for clouds and
spotty precipitation to develop by late Sunday. There could be
enough cold air, at least in the lower levels, to allow P-type
to initially favor snow or a wintry mix for some areas.
bullseye.
Yay.
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
We've got an inch here in the valley. Hope it stays around, we could use some tracking snow.
