jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Better, also most there...thanks for asking
Fall Weather 2023
- Thread starter Campgottagopee
- Start date
Andy_ROC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2021
Been raining hard here in ROC since around 1030AM. Local met was talking last night about lake effect potential mid next week
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
635 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main concern in the long term continues to be a storm system that is
expected to impact pre-Thanksgiving travel, especially from Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. There is still considerable spread
among the deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the storm
evolution, track, intensity and associated precipitation types and
amounts. The pattern fits a Miller Type B system, with a weakening
primary cyclone tracking NE into the lower Great Lakes and a
secondary coastal cyclone developing along the coast or just south
of Long Island.
In terms of precip types there will be a relatively cold/dry air mass
in place prior, so some wintry precip is expected at the
onset especially across higher terrain areas west/east of the Hudson
Valley. Even in valleys, there could be a brief period of snow or
rain/snow mix depending on exact arrival time. While some frozen
precip(sleet/freezing rain) is possible, NBM probs are below 10%, so
only have mention of rain/snow at this time. While it is too early
for specific snowfall amounts, probs for > 3" snow from the WPC
superensemble indicating 30-50% over the S. Adirondacks/S. Greens,
with only 10-30% elsewhere. Total QPF(including rain) from the ECMWF
ensemble mean generally less than 1", with possibly up to 1.5"
across SE upslope areas of the Catskills and Litchfield Hills. Will
also have to monitor for gusty wind potential, mainly in the S-SE
flow ahead of the dual-cyclone system. GEFS indicating 850 mb
southerly(v-component) anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV. Whether advisory
level gusts (> 45 mph) occur at the surface will depend on eventual
low level stability/mixing.
Once the system moves through, colder and breezy conditions will
develop late Wed through Fri as an upper level trough settles in
across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Depending on the magnitude of
temperatures aloft and flow trajectories, lake effect snow will be
possible from the western Adirondacks to the western Mohawk Valley.
Confidence is low at this time, so will mention mainly slight chance
to chance PoPs for now and continue to monitor trends.
National Weather Service Albany NY
635 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main concern in the long term continues to be a storm system that is
expected to impact pre-Thanksgiving travel, especially from Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. There is still considerable spread
among the deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the storm
evolution, track, intensity and associated precipitation types and
amounts. The pattern fits a Miller Type B system, with a weakening
primary cyclone tracking NE into the lower Great Lakes and a
secondary coastal cyclone developing along the coast or just south
of Long Island.
In terms of precip types there will be a relatively cold/dry air mass
in place prior, so some wintry precip is expected at the
onset especially across higher terrain areas west/east of the Hudson
Valley. Even in valleys, there could be a brief period of snow or
rain/snow mix depending on exact arrival time. While some frozen
precip(sleet/freezing rain) is possible, NBM probs are below 10%, so
only have mention of rain/snow at this time. While it is too early
for specific snowfall amounts, probs for > 3" snow from the WPC
superensemble indicating 30-50% over the S. Adirondacks/S. Greens,
with only 10-30% elsewhere. Total QPF(including rain) from the ECMWF
ensemble mean generally less than 1", with possibly up to 1.5"
across SE upslope areas of the Catskills and Litchfield Hills. Will
also have to monitor for gusty wind potential, mainly in the S-SE
flow ahead of the dual-cyclone system. GEFS indicating 850 mb
southerly(v-component) anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV. Whether advisory
level gusts (> 45 mph) occur at the surface will depend on eventual
low level stability/mixing.
Once the system moves through, colder and breezy conditions will
develop late Wed through Fri as an upper level trough settles in
across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Depending on the magnitude of
temperatures aloft and flow trajectories, lake effect snow will be
possible from the western Adirondacks to the western Mohawk Valley.
Confidence is low at this time, so will mention mainly slight chance
to chance PoPs for now and continue to monitor trends.
Peter Minde
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 19, 2020
I saw the Discipline band in concert twice. Regret not seeing the Bruford - Wetton - Cross King Crimson.
The snowmakers are gonna be working some placesHere is the next 2 weeks...
Letitsnow.
Lay the base.The NWS changed the way they forecast & alert to make it all the same.
NWS Revamps Forecasting System: What It Means for New York State
Will this make winter storm predictions more accurate?
The boys wanna go to Gore Friday.
Told them it mightn’t open yet.
A NWS base building forecast:
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever,
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis,
Hoffmeister, Wells, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek,
North River, Warrensburg, and Hague
309 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
1 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an
inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...Northern Herkimer, Hamilton and Northern Warren
Counties.
* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in this evening and mix
with sleet and freezing rain prior to midnight. The snow, sleet
and freezing rain will change to plain rain Wednesday morning
and diminish prior to noontime.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
Dang crusty dusty.
Told them it mightn’t open yet.
A NWS base building forecast:
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever,
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis,
Hoffmeister, Wells, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek,
North River, Warrensburg, and Hague
309 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
1 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an
inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...Northern Herkimer, Hamilton and Northern Warren
Counties.
* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in this evening and mix
with sleet and freezing rain prior to midnight. The snow, sleet
and freezing rain will change to plain rain Wednesday morning
and diminish prior to noontime.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
Dang crusty dusty.
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
Raining at whiteface and snowing at Gore. Interesting to see +SN at GFL and RA at SLK
