Fall Weather 2020

Hail Mary for the weekend?

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Does THAT looks special!

Here's this from NWS ALY. Lots of stuff I don't fully understand a lot of it, but the vibe I'm getting is we've got a medium/longshot at some love:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Predictability continues to be quite low Sunday/Monday. The
uncertainty seems to stem from the complex interaction between a
closed upper low in the Deep South and a positively tilted northern
stream wave digging into the western Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Spread among GEFS members is still large, but the majority of them
in the 00Z/01 run, along with the deterministic GFS, keep the deep
upper low slow enough for it to be directed northeastward by the
digging northern stream trough. Such a scenario would result in an
active weather period for the local area Sunday/Sunday night, with
low pressure moving northeastward in the vicinity of the Appalachian
crest into the Northeastern US. P-type for such a system remains
uncertain as a lack of true phasing between the two waves may result
in a lack of Arctic air. Meanwhile, the last several runs of the
deterministic ECMWF keep the closed low progressive such that it's
well offshore by the time the northern stream gets involved. The
result is that cyclogenesis occurs offshore of the Carolinas and the
cyclone does not retrograde back toward the Maritime Canada until a
few days later. This would be a more tranquil scenario for
Sunday/Monday, although the northern stream wave would still result
in a colder airmass by Monday with perhaps some snow showers. Will
continue to roll with NBM guidance with chance PoPs Sunday and temps
falling below normal by Monday.
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There is no model continuity on the weekend threat so even with it only being 4 to 5 days out it’s still highly uncertain but the threat of snow or rain is on the table. If we can pull snow off on this event, we will be pulling a rabbit out of a hat
 
NWS ALY update:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Saturday night through Sunday night, precipitation will overspread
the forecast area form south to north. As far as precipitation type
(p-type), this will continue to be closely monitored as the precise
track pf the storm system and amount of cold air seepage will by and
large determine p-type. The way things are currently laid out, it's
possible that we could see initial precipitation at onset of this
event start off as rain/liquid across the southern half of the
forecast area including the valleys before enough wet-bulbing and
lowering of snow elevations take place causing for rain to change
over to a rain/snow mix or all snow. Higher elevations and areas
northwest of Albany could see things either start off as a rain/snow
mix before a quicker transition over to all snow. In total, this has
the potential to be our first widespread wintry event of the season
with some accumulating snow (esp. northern zones). Again snow
amounts and p-type will all depend on the exact track of this storm
system as well as how much cold air is available so stay tuned! It
could be a setup where the highest elevations and typical cold zones
(northern counties) see the highest snow amounts while the valleys
see lower amounts or a situation where the southeastern areas
receive the higher QPF totals with the northwestern zones hardly
getting any. Precipitation is expected to come to an end by Monday
morning timeframe.
Click to expand...
 
This AM from NWS ALY, again, just PART of the longterm:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Guidance indicates a potentially potent low pressure system
developing over the mid-Atlantic region/along coast then moving
northward impacting our area over the weekend with significant
precipitation possible. Guidance shows phasing of northern and
southern stream energy, however there are significant differences
regarding the evolution, strength and track of the system. The ECMWF
is the deepest and brings precipitation into the area faster than
other guidance. Ensemble guidance does indicates the NAO should be
phasing from positive to negative. With the uncertainty in the
details especially timing have limited pops to chance for Saturday
through Sunday. The exact track of the system will determine p-type.
At this time have favored guidance from the Weather Prediction
Center to maintain forecast consistency. Refer to their Extended
Forecast Discussion for their insight. Indications at this time are
for mainly rain below 1500 feet on Saturday with a mix of rain/snow
above that with a transition to snow Saturday night even in the
valleys. A mix of rain and snow possible during the day Sunday
below 1000 feet with snow above that. Some lake enhanced showers
would be expected in cyclonic flow on the backside of the system
as we head into next week.

Seasonable temperatures Saturday with lower to mid 40s for highs
below 1000 feet and in the 30s above. Then looking at below normal
readings for daytime temperatures with nighttime lows trending from
above normal to seasonable values in the wake of the storm.
Click to expand...
 
NorEaster27 said:
Yup overnight models were no good, trending in the wrong direction
Click to expand...
I thought that seemed relatively optimistic? Looked like snow above 1500, mostly.

What really matters for this weekend are the temps the next few days, who can blow and how much?
 
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