Fall Weather 2020

[JTG]

If you take the new gfs 12z verbatim
Hunter will be lucky to see a flake
Still 60 hrs away

Wait, what? Rebecca hath spoken, and she sayeth that the Catskills will do ok with this storm.

 

[jasonwx]

Wait, what? Rebecca hath spoken, and she sayeth that the Catskills will do ok with this storm.

really need to wait tomorrow's 12z...

 

[Harvey]

Open Snow has every ski area in MA at 10 inches or more. CT 12-14. PA really strong. Catskills with a shot at it I think.

 

[NYSkiBlog]

NWS ALY

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Storm Watch in effect 4 PM (21 UTC) Wednesday to 1PM (18 UTC)
Thursday for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield County...

With such a strong and cold Canadian position in the classic spot
over Ontario, Canada, there is high confidence that the resulting
precipitation should fall as snow over eastern NY and western New
England with the cold column supporting slightly higher than climo
snow to liquid ratios (12 to 14:1). However, model guidance
continues to show differences in just how far north the surface low
tracks which will ultimately determine how much QPF and therefore
how much snow will fall over our region and how far north it will
spread.

Therefore, we placed the highest QPF amounts in our southern tier
counties (Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield) where amounts should near
1 inch with amounts decreasing to ~0.30 in the Capital Region and
under a tenth in the Adirondacks. Given the higher confidence that
these southern zones should see the highest QPF amounts, we had high
enough confidence to place these areas in a Winter Storm Watch. The
next tier (Columbia, Greene and Berkshire) were close to warrant a
winter storm watch but chose to hold off at this point given ongoing
uncertainty regarding the exact placement of the sharp north to
south gradient.

Our total snowfall forecast at this point shows generally 8 to 12
inches in the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskill and NW CT areas
with amounts decreasing sharply heading towards the Capital District
and I-90 where only 3 to 6 inches is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As low pressure departs off to the east to the south of southern New
England, steady snowfall will be ending on Thursday morning from
west to east. Up to an additional inch of snow is possible on
Thursday on the backside of the storm system, and most locations
should be seeing skies clear out during the afternoon hours. With
chilly northwest winds in place, it will be a cold day, with highs
only in the 20s across the entire area.

 

[NYSkiBlog]

Not ideal

 

[NYSkiBlog]

Check out the difference (variability) between low end and high end probabilities. Much more than usual IME:

Low End

Official Forecast

High End

 

[jasonwx]

Harv the 12 z gfs and nam
Gave you a bone and shifted things north

 

[NYSkiBlog]

Compare this:

View attachment 7162

to this:

Storm track forecast drifting north.

 

[DomB]

weather underground has been steadily going up for Belle. I have found them pretty accurate. I think they are saying 17 in for Belle at this point Wed-Thurs. I may have to buy a Belle only pass (no others given distance for me and discomfort with anything indoors other than my house).

 

[Harvey]

{Harv sniffs the air, sensing a potential dissipation of price sensitivity?}