TheGreatAbyss
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
What do we think about the Cats tomorrow? Warm today, then will dip below freezing tonight and only get a few degrees above with clouds all day.
WROD Skating rink?
WROD Skating rink?
Winter Weather 23/24
- Thread starter NYSkiBlog
- Start date
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
it won't dip that much bellow freezing, also there will be pretty stiff southerly breeze developing...
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1240 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will prevail through
the day on Saturday. The next system impacts the region Saturday
night into early next week. Heavy snow is possible in the
mountains while it should be lighter in the valleys. Strong
winds are also expected with this storm system, power outages
will be possible in the higher terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EST Friday...Active weather expected Saturday
night through Monday while a phased upper low produces deep-
layer low followed by secondary cyclogenesis across coastal New
England. The first wave of precipitation will take place
Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a bit of a break during
the day as the upper low`s dry slot shifts overhead, followed
by a shift to northwest flow as the coastal low takes over and
produces a long stretch of orographically enhanced snow showers
through Monday before finally tapering off overnight.
Temperatures ranging from 29 to 36 Saturday night, warming above
freezing Sunday, and then falling back to 25 to 33 overnight
means there will be varying snow levels and wet snow. Above 2000
ft elevation, there will be the highest chance for heavy, wet
snow to load trees and powerlines that could produce power
outages before trending towards dry snow Sunday night. Overall,
various model output remains different, but at least are
consistent.
Ahead of the system, there could be a brief interval of gusty
winds, especially across northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks,
and western slopes of the Green Mountains as 850hPa winds
increase to 65- 75 knots. Suboptimal mixing potential and
questions as to how strong the parent low deepens means that it
appears most like winds will range between 40 to 50 mph, but we
will have to keep in eye on the western slopes of the Greens for
some potential 55 mph southeast wind gusts as they have better
chances to stay out of precipitation longer before these strong
winds off the surface move into the area. By Sunday, proximity
of the deep low pressure will cause winds to tail off as people
wake up.
Widespread precipitation will arrive just after the stronger
gusts. Terrain shadowing will somewhat limit precipitation in
the Champlain Valley, Northeast Kingdom, and parts of the St.
Lawrence Valley, but overall dynamics should be strong enough
that everyone should see some precipitation. The strong mid-
level southeast winds could produce some sleet or maybe even
freezing rain for a brief interval, but impacts should be
minimal as temperatures hover near to above freezing. Where cold
enough in eastern Vermont and the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks, snow should be the dominant p-type, and may be
briefly moderate to heavy, which will be needed for
accumulations likely around 1 to 4 inches above 2000 feet and
less than 1 inch below 1000 feet. Progressing into Sunday
afternoon and evening, the coastal development should be taking
over and shifting east, but with the dry slot shifting overhead.
It should be later Sunday night that wrap around moisture
begins a period of snow showers into Monday. Dynamical cooling
with the upper low position should result in all snow, even if
temperatures are around 35. The amount of wrap around moisture
and deformation owing to the upper low should result in fairly
substantial orographic snow, with northwest slopes receiving an
additional 3 to 6", while the rest of the area could see another
1 to 3" with an added 6 to 12" on the summits (highest northern
Greens).
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1240 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will prevail through
the day on Saturday. The next system impacts the region Saturday
night into early next week. Heavy snow is possible in the
mountains while it should be lighter in the valleys. Strong
winds are also expected with this storm system, power outages
will be possible in the higher terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EST Friday...Active weather expected Saturday
night through Monday while a phased upper low produces deep-
layer low followed by secondary cyclogenesis across coastal New
England. The first wave of precipitation will take place
Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a bit of a break during
the day as the upper low`s dry slot shifts overhead, followed
by a shift to northwest flow as the coastal low takes over and
produces a long stretch of orographically enhanced snow showers
through Monday before finally tapering off overnight.
Temperatures ranging from 29 to 36 Saturday night, warming above
freezing Sunday, and then falling back to 25 to 33 overnight
means there will be varying snow levels and wet snow. Above 2000
ft elevation, there will be the highest chance for heavy, wet
snow to load trees and powerlines that could produce power
outages before trending towards dry snow Sunday night. Overall,
various model output remains different, but at least are
consistent.
Ahead of the system, there could be a brief interval of gusty
winds, especially across northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks,
and western slopes of the Green Mountains as 850hPa winds
increase to 65- 75 knots. Suboptimal mixing potential and
questions as to how strong the parent low deepens means that it
appears most like winds will range between 40 to 50 mph, but we
will have to keep in eye on the western slopes of the Greens for
some potential 55 mph southeast wind gusts as they have better
chances to stay out of precipitation longer before these strong
winds off the surface move into the area. By Sunday, proximity
of the deep low pressure will cause winds to tail off as people
wake up.
Widespread precipitation will arrive just after the stronger
gusts. Terrain shadowing will somewhat limit precipitation in
the Champlain Valley, Northeast Kingdom, and parts of the St.
Lawrence Valley, but overall dynamics should be strong enough
that everyone should see some precipitation. The strong mid-
level southeast winds could produce some sleet or maybe even
freezing rain for a brief interval, but impacts should be
minimal as temperatures hover near to above freezing. Where cold
enough in eastern Vermont and the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks, snow should be the dominant p-type, and may be
briefly moderate to heavy, which will be needed for
accumulations likely around 1 to 4 inches above 2000 feet and
less than 1 inch below 1000 feet. Progressing into Sunday
afternoon and evening, the coastal development should be taking
over and shifting east, but with the dry slot shifting overhead.
It should be later Sunday night that wrap around moisture
begins a period of snow showers into Monday. Dynamical cooling
with the upper low position should result in all snow, even if
temperatures are around 35. The amount of wrap around moisture
and deformation owing to the upper low should result in fairly
substantial orographic snow, with northwest slopes receiving an
additional 3 to 6", while the rest of the area could see another
1 to 3" with an added 6 to 12" on the summits (highest northern
Greens).
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
102 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild conditions are expected today. A storm system
approaching from the west will then rain and mountain wet snow
along with gusty winds for late Saturday through Sunday morning,
with snow showers and continued windy conditions for Sunday
afternoon into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds continue to thicken Saturday, with precipitation
developing from west to east during the afternoon hours. Despite
mild temps within the valley areas, strong wet bulb cooling
should allow precipitation to mix with snow and/or sleet across
higher elevations across the eastern Catskills, southwest
Adirondacks and southern VT toward sunset. Gusty southeast winds
will develop during Saturday, with some gusts possibly
approaching 40 mph within north/south valleys including within
the Capital Region. Temps may briefly spike into the upper 40s
to lower 50s within valley region Saturday before precipitation
develops, with mainly upper 30s to mid 40s across higher
terrain.
Complex storm system then evolves for Saturday night into
Sunday, with primary center most likely tracking into SW
Ontario, while secondary low develops near NYC/NJ and then
intensifies while tracking across eastern New England. Strong
south/southeast low level jet translates across the region
Saturday night, allowing for strong isentropic lift to develop.
This will allow for a period of moderate to locally heavy
precipitation. However, given the presence of a strong low level
wind field, precipitation amounts will be heavily orographically
influenced, with southeast facing higher terrain areas of the
southern Adirondacks and southeast Catskills having
enhanced/greatest amounts of 1.5-2", with generally 0.75-1.5
inches elsewhere, with a min of QPF possible across portions of
the Capital Region and Taconics due to downsloping effects.
Across higher terrain areas across the southern Adirondacks and
southern VT, P-type should transition to a snow/sleet mix, and
could be locally heavy Saturday evening. Warmer air aloft may
then allow for a brief transition to sleet/freezing rain across
southern VT before changing to all rain after midnight. For the
SW Adirondacks, the transition to sleet/freezing rain may take a
little longer, resulting in greater snowfall accumulations.
There could be moderate snowfall accumulations (3-6") across
some of these higher elevations Saturday night, with perhaps
1-3" across higher terrain of southern VT. In addition, some ice
accretion could occur in some of these higher elevations as
well. The snow should be very wet in consistency, and combined
with some icing and also strong gusty winds, some power outages
could occur in these areas.
Strong southeast winds with gusts of 35-45 mph are likely
across higher terrain of the SW Adirondacks, eastern Catskills,
and especially the Taconics/southern Greens and Berkshires, with
some possibility for even higher gusts. Wind headlines may be
issued with subsequent forecasts.
Steady precipitation should taper off from southwest to
northeast Sunday morning. However, as upper level low tracks
across portions of the region, in combination with a
strengthening westerly wind regime, orographic snow showers
will develop across the SW Adirondacks Sunday afternoon,
expanding to the Berkshires, southern Greens and Taconics Sunday
night into Monday morning. Several inches of snowfall will be
possible, and additional winter weather headlines may be
necessary. Some snow showers will be possible within valley
areas later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with spotty light
accumulations possible.
West winds will increase Sunday afternoon and night, with gusts
of 30-40 mph possible, if not stronger, especially within the
Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires. Temperatures may
briefly reach the 40s in valley areas Sunday morning before
falling in the afternoon, with higher terrain areas mainly in
the 30s, before falling into the 20s before sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Precipitation will gradually taper off throughout the day Monday,
with dry conditions returning by Monday evening/night.
National Weather Service Albany NY
102 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild conditions are expected today. A storm system
approaching from the west will then rain and mountain wet snow
along with gusty winds for late Saturday through Sunday morning,
with snow showers and continued windy conditions for Sunday
afternoon into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds continue to thicken Saturday, with precipitation
developing from west to east during the afternoon hours. Despite
mild temps within the valley areas, strong wet bulb cooling
should allow precipitation to mix with snow and/or sleet across
higher elevations across the eastern Catskills, southwest
Adirondacks and southern VT toward sunset. Gusty southeast winds
will develop during Saturday, with some gusts possibly
approaching 40 mph within north/south valleys including within
the Capital Region. Temps may briefly spike into the upper 40s
to lower 50s within valley region Saturday before precipitation
develops, with mainly upper 30s to mid 40s across higher
terrain.
Complex storm system then evolves for Saturday night into
Sunday, with primary center most likely tracking into SW
Ontario, while secondary low develops near NYC/NJ and then
intensifies while tracking across eastern New England. Strong
south/southeast low level jet translates across the region
Saturday night, allowing for strong isentropic lift to develop.
This will allow for a period of moderate to locally heavy
precipitation. However, given the presence of a strong low level
wind field, precipitation amounts will be heavily orographically
influenced, with southeast facing higher terrain areas of the
southern Adirondacks and southeast Catskills having
enhanced/greatest amounts of 1.5-2", with generally 0.75-1.5
inches elsewhere, with a min of QPF possible across portions of
the Capital Region and Taconics due to downsloping effects.
Across higher terrain areas across the southern Adirondacks and
southern VT, P-type should transition to a snow/sleet mix, and
could be locally heavy Saturday evening. Warmer air aloft may
then allow for a brief transition to sleet/freezing rain across
southern VT before changing to all rain after midnight. For the
SW Adirondacks, the transition to sleet/freezing rain may take a
little longer, resulting in greater snowfall accumulations.
There could be moderate snowfall accumulations (3-6") across
some of these higher elevations Saturday night, with perhaps
1-3" across higher terrain of southern VT. In addition, some ice
accretion could occur in some of these higher elevations as
well. The snow should be very wet in consistency, and combined
with some icing and also strong gusty winds, some power outages
could occur in these areas.
Strong southeast winds with gusts of 35-45 mph are likely
across higher terrain of the SW Adirondacks, eastern Catskills,
and especially the Taconics/southern Greens and Berkshires, with
some possibility for even higher gusts. Wind headlines may be
issued with subsequent forecasts.
Steady precipitation should taper off from southwest to
northeast Sunday morning. However, as upper level low tracks
across portions of the region, in combination with a
strengthening westerly wind regime, orographic snow showers
will develop across the SW Adirondacks Sunday afternoon,
expanding to the Berkshires, southern Greens and Taconics Sunday
night into Monday morning. Several inches of snowfall will be
possible, and additional winter weather headlines may be
necessary. Some snow showers will be possible within valley
areas later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with spotty light
accumulations possible.
West winds will increase Sunday afternoon and night, with gusts
of 30-40 mph possible, if not stronger, especially within the
Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires. Temperatures may
briefly reach the 40s in valley areas Sunday morning before
falling in the afternoon, with higher terrain areas mainly in
the 30s, before falling into the 20s before sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Precipitation will gradually taper off throughout the day Monday,
with dry conditions returning by Monday evening/night.
TheGreatAbyss
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
Welp tomorrow is probably my last chance of the season to get on skis (regardless of weather) so I'm heading up. Will make a game time decis between Platty and Gore. Block looks nice but I'm not looking to tear up my boots walking
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
True enough, but it will be melted away by Friday, if not sooner.
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
I can see 10 inches Saturday night at Gore
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
