Winter Weather 23/24

[ADKmike]

Have some gack come early that the deer could still paw thru. Then have an early multi day cold snap come so folks can blow their pistes.
Then have pow every night but quit so the plows could get the roads cleared for bluebird mornings all winter. Lather rinse repeat with somewhat light winds...
Later on in March let the corn and maple tree harvests begin and the fish get their H2O.
Once it’s all melted just go golfing and/or fishing.

Ha...I meant more from a technical weather discussion standpoint...

 

[TheGreatAbyss]

What I've learned from JasonWx is that it's all about the NAO. I'm not sure how much the Ninos effect that, but I'll let others who are more knowledgable comment.

 

[leatherstocking]

What's the ideal characteristic for a solid East Coast winter (historically, ignoring the volatile weather over the past several seasons)

Statistically, the Northeast performs better during neutral cycles than either El Niño/La Niña. They have much more muted of an effect in the east than the west due to the distance from the Pacific Ocean; not enough to say one is good and one is bad. I have read some literature suggesting that a strong El Niño like we have now can lead to a boom or bust type effect in the east though

 

[jasonwx]

It’s all about the Greenland block
Without it we are spinning our wheels

 

[takeahike46er]

La Niña and El Niño cycles alone do not dictate the long term weather patterns for any region. There are so many factors at play.

For example, conventional wisdom says that a locale like Whistler is colder and snowier during a La Niña and warmer and drier during a El Niño. In actuality, the data is much more nuanced with some minor correlations with one or the other but still tremendous variability season to season regardless of the cycle we’re in.

If these patterns were so simple and binary, seasonal forecasts would be spot on, when in reality they’re anything but.

 

[Harvey]

Greenland block

 

[Campgottagopee]

3 days of rain the cold again. WTF!

 

[jasonwx]

3 days of rain the cold again. WTF!

This easy to forecast
Ground hog day

 

[saratogahalfday]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
951 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2024

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 319 AM EST Wednesday...Quiet conditions are expected Saturday
behind Friday`s wave with temperatures remaining unseasonably warm
under light southerly flow and cloudy skies. A reinforcing shot of
colder air appears likely heading into Sunday as models begin to
amplify the long wave pattern over the eastern United State. The
continued prognosis of a Miller-B system forming offshore remains a
primary feature in most model simulations Sunday into Monday.
However, details differ quite a bit from one model suite to another
on position of synoptic features and whether or not there will be
multiple lows. With model spread remaining quite large, changes were
kept to a minimum with best chances of precipitation towards
southern Vermont and a sharp south- north gradient. The details that
can be sussed out are that the North Country will most likely be on
the colder side of the system and the system will remain fairly
progressive. This points to mostly snow chances with generally light
to moderate amounts and largely precluding heavy snowfall amounts.
Temperatures in this flow regime will vary and trending below
seasonal averages by Monday with near normal temperatures Sunday and
towards midweek. Monday/Monday night may be blustery; some model
output favors apparent temperatures dipping below zero. Unsettled
conditions may persist into midweek with eastern Canada and the
Northeast maintaining cyclonic flow aloft.

 

[Harvey]

Love me some Miller B.