Winter Weather 21/22

[MarzNC]

I'm not sure Open Snow is a quality weather forecasting outfit. I stick to the NWS these day. Open Snow seems to be a more wishful thinking weather forecaster.

Depends on the region. I like OpenSnow for the Rockies. For other regions, it's convenient that the format is consistent. My list of Favorites includes mountains from 3-4 regions at any given time to satisfy my curiosity.

The OpenSnow guys are developing their own modeling software but the focus on the bread-and-butter regions like the Rockies. When there is a dedicated local forecaster for a smaller area like New Mexico, it's handy. They even have a grad student focusing on the Mid-Atlantic these days.

For the southeast, I rely on SkiSoutheast's meteorologist (Charlotte, NC TV weather guy who skis).

 

[saratogahalfday]

You can't just look at open snow and take it at face value. Does anyone really do that?

I clicked on the NY page today:

https://opensnow.com/state/NY

It showed me several NY areas with significant snowfall a week from Friday.

What did I do with that info? I went to the GFS 240 map to see what I could see.

Now I will continue to watch that map (and also the 168 hour in a few days) and I'll follow the NWS ALY longterm when it starts to include 2/25 and beyond.

Not to rain on anyone's parade, but check out this nugget from NWS VT for next week. If that happens, we'll need a whopper snow event by Friday.

A welcomed period of quiet weather will be seen on Sunday and Monday
with weak high pressure transiting the region. Another surface low
will begin to take shape across the southern US late Monday and will
begin to quickly shift northeast during the day on Tuesday. There
are some timing differences at this time but it looks like another
potent warm front will move through the region bringing another
burst of well above normal temperatures. In addition to these warm
temperatures, it`s becoming increasingly likely that we could see
another decent rain system with this low tracking across the
northeastern US. We will have to see how the exact track pans out as
we could run into some mixed precipitation type but the warmer
solutions continue to be favored by the ensemble clusters. Should
the warm and rain solution pan out, another round of hydro related
issues looks very possible.

 

[jasonwx]

Not to rain on anyone's parade, but check out this nugget from NWS VT for next week. If that happens, we'll need a whopper snow event by Friday.

A welcomed period of quiet weather will be seen on Sunday and Monday
with weak high pressure transiting the region. Another surface low
will begin to take shape across the southern US late Monday and will
begin to quickly shift northeast during the day on Tuesday. There
are some timing differences at this time but it looks like another
potent warm front will move through the region bringing another
burst of well above normal temperatures. In addition to these warm
temperatures, it`s becoming increasingly likely that we could see
another decent rain system with this low tracking across the
northeastern US. We will have to see how the exact track pans out as
we could run into some mixed precipitation type but the warmer
solutions continue to be favored by the ensemble clusters. Should
the warm and rain solution pan out, another round of hydro related
issues looks very possible.

this is a more realistic forecast..
3 consecutive lows go to central Michigan..
A drought we are not in

 

[TheGreatAbyss]

 

[tirolski]

For those interested, Tremblant looks to get some good snow. I've always enjoy skiing there.
Though entry to CA might be more complicated than normal.

Went once when work ran a president’s day long weekend bus trip there in the late 80s.
Way below zero one day. Lightning snow storm going around Montreal at night on the way up.
Bus had problems as it was so cold.
Driver just stayed with us and partied.
Great big place to ski.
We stayed on the older funkier side.
Way too much fun if there is such a thing.
Feels like ya can see the arctic circle up top.

 

[tirolski]

this is a more realistic forecast..
3 consecutive lows go to central Michigan..
A drought we are not in

With all the iced up rivers, streams and ditches around the biggest concern is ice jam flooding in the more immediate future.
If it was colder it’d be much better but with the snow melting and rain, get ready for a gully washer.

Potential flooding for the Twin Tiers this week

ELMIRA, N.Y. (WETM) – Back in mid-January, snowstorms were the big talk in weather for the Twin Tiers. Now, concerns for flooding are rising as rainfall and higher temperatures arrive later t…

www.mytwintiers.com

 

[Campgottagopee]

My Indian Weather Rock says we're fkd

 

[saratogahalfday]

I guess the good news is there's some snow on the other side of the rain later tonight in the north, so northern NY and VT will at least receive a band aid. It looks like another round of rain on Tuesday though.

 

[NYSkiBlog]

 

[saratogahalfday]

Here's some better news for next Tuesday, potentially.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1034 PM EST Wednesday...Dry weather remains on track for
Friday night with high pressure building into the region. The
dry weather is short lived as a shortwave trough quickly moves
into the region on Saturday. As has been the case the last three
nights dynamic support sufficient for snow showers to develop
and have the areal coverage be fairly widespread. Forecast
soundings continue to show a greater depth to the dry adiabatic
lapse rates, actually even greater than the past two night,
which indicates sufficient instability for an element of
convection and will need to watch the snow squall potential with
this system. The steep lapse rates will also promote gusty
winds and this could result in reduced visibility and with the
potential for minor snow accumulations travel impacts will be
possible. The shortwave exits the area Saturday night and the
flow aloft becomes northwest. This should help focus any
lingering snow showers to the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1034 PM EST Wednesday...Dry weather is expected on Sunday
with highs generally in the 30s. The longer range data for
Monday and especially Tuesday is beginning to trend colder as a
cold front moves into the area late on Monday, but with limited
moisture. However, it does bring some colder air into the region
before a surge of moisture comes in from the southwest on
Tuesday. Thermal profiles are now beginning to show colder air
at the surface and warm air advection at 925 and 850 millibars.
A surface low, albeit weak, now wants to develop and stay south
of our area, which would keep us more on the cold side,
especially over our northern area. The warming aloft does
suggest at this time that maybe our southern areas only warm up
enough for rain on Tuesday with mixed precipitation and snow as
you head up to the international border. Will have to continue
to monitor this trend because the past few days looked like
above normal temperatures and rain. A shortwave trough moving in
from the west on Wednesday will help to keep precipitation
chances going, but not as likely as Tuesday with the surge of
deeper moisture.