Winter Weather 20/21

NWS ALY

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The main highlight of the long term period will on a storm system
for the end of the work week (Thursday/Friday period) which could
bring our first widespread precipitation event for the month of
March. This would be much needed as precipitation deficits for March
are already nearing one inch. Otherwise, temperatures will start out
well below normal but moderate back towards normal levels for the
second half of the week. Read on for details.

By the second half of the week, we will monitoring a closed upper
level low in the Central CONUS that looks to track eastward by
Thursday/Friday towards the Northeast. Strong south-southwesterly
flow ahead of it looks to direct a plume of moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico northward with overrunning precipitation spreading into
our area early on Thursday. Depending on when precipitation arrives,
a residual cold air dome may be in place ahead of the approaching
closed low that precipitation may fall as a wintry mix. Given that
the latest guidance does not show a blocking high signature,
confidence is moderate to high that the incoming strong temperature
and moisture advection will allow a transition to all rain. In fact,
PWATs in the moisture plume exceed 1 inch so we could see a period
of moderate/steady precipitation. This would be much appreciated as
many climate sites are already an inch below normal for the month.

As the low exits Thursday night, cold air looks to wrap in behind
it. Depending on how much moisture remains when cold air overspreads
the region, precipitation may transition back to snow, especially in
areas north and west of the Capital District. Cooler temperatures
return for Friday with breezy conditions as high pressure in the
Midwest builds eastward.

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