Said from Facebook"
""This one will probably miss us, but I would be lobbying Magic Mountain Ski Area to re-open on Friday, if I had that much pink around me; I'd be getting ready for "Powderdaize" our forecast is for 6", which under normal circumstances would be amazing, but for Friday it may only be good for some early morning skinning. Come climb if you want.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 3 pm
MODELING CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY…
THE REGIONS TO WATCH WILL BE THE HIGH TERRAIN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, THE ADIRONDACKS, PARTS IF NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT, WESTERN AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS, MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VT, NORTHERN NH AND FAR WESTERN MAINE…
Discussion: There is always a huge error potential for any late season winter storm forecast; especially once into the mid-April period. There are many ways for a mid-April snowstorms to fail.
Most often the snow potential is limited to high elevation areas, and while we have seen mid/late April and even May snowfalls get all the way into the lower elevations, they are relatively rare.
But many model schemes have for several days now been hyping a significant heavy snowfall for portions of eastern NY and much of interior southern and central New England. The modeling has not been terribly consistent as to where the core of the heaviest snows will occur, but all of the models are producing at least scattered areas of moderate to heavy snow, and some models are on the widespread heavy snow bandwagon.
The vast majority of the snow, if it does indeed occur, would fall during the Friday into Friday night period. That means we will have another full day or so to watch trends and try to hone in on the most likely areas for trouble.
While we are not yet at full-leaf-out, the amounts of heavy wet snow being predicted by some of the models would be worrisome and raise the specter of some tree and power line damage.
My early take is that low elevations will probably be ok in many areas and it is the 700 or 1000 feet and up areas that are of most concern.
Rain will become widespread Thursday and the time period to start watching for trouble will later Thursday night on through the first part of Friday; again the high elevation areas are most at risk.
I will update the snowfall call Thursday, but for now let me share with you the latest European model forecast just out within the last hour or so.
- Note the axis of heaviest snow is predicted to flow the axis of the Litchfield CT hills northward across the Berkshire on along the axis of the Green Mountains of VT. The heavy snow zone then bulges eastward across northern Massachusetts and parts of southern and western NH with a secondary max across north-central NH into far western Maine. Also note the smaller max areas from the northern Catskills northward into the Adirondacks…
If these were to verify, this would be a fairly disruptive event for these areas. Given the time of the year and the way everything has to phase just right for this to workout, I suggest waiting until Thursday before truly committing to a hard and fast call.
At the same time, I do not want to dismiss the potential and careful monitoring is required…
All the above is quoted from a confidential meteriorologist friend of mine.
