A Christmas snow event doesn't look too promising now...
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Monday...Low pressure moves just north of the
Canadian border Wednesday with a surface boundary pushing through
the North Country. Main changes for this forecast cycle were to
increase chances of light snow and extend the duration through
Wednesday evening along northern upslope areas of the Adirondacks
and Green Mountains as northwesterly
flow develops in the
wake of
the rapidly exiting low. Still, this wave will be largely
moisture-
starved and snow accumulations should be less than 1 inch. Winds
will remain
brisk through the frontal passage and behind the
front
through early Thursday morning as weak high pressure builds back
across the region. Impressive temperature anomalies develop
across the central United States mid/late week. Temperatures for the
Northeast will also be trending warmer late in the week, but only on
the order of a few degrees above average. The late-week system is
still on track to impact the region over the holiday Friday and
Saturday. Model consensus has low pressure tracking across the North
Country with potential for
mixed precipitation, and temperatures
likely warming around/above freezing in the Champlain and St
Lawrence valleys. Temperatures will
likely warm into the mid/upper
30s for Saturday, but a growing number are shifting Saturday`s high
towards 40 degrees while increasing southerly
flow. The 00z
deterministic
GFS remains the coldest solution, but most model
output and
ensembles still favor some warming. There`s still a
plenty of uncertainty associated with this system and models remain
split on how far north warm air will intrude. The bottom line for
now is that there is potential for a variety of precipitation types
in the main valleys for Friday night and Saturday with some breezy
conditions also possible.