Fall Weather 2021

Snow for k and adjs:.
'**WEATHER: Sunday & Monday Snow Detail **

By Tuesday morning I believe we may be seeing some 12" totals from this three day storm cycle. We have not just one larger though light storm coming through, but a decent back end event that should add snow for at lest 12 more hours on Monday to top things off.y Tuesday morning snow totals for this cycle will likely range from around 6" on S-VT peaks, to 8"-12" from Killington to Jay, and 6"-8" around Burke and the NW side of the Presidentials in NH. W-PA and W-NY should see some totals around 6" in total. The ADK's probably sees 8"-12" in the High Peaks. Attached is a simulated radar loop showing all of Sunday and Monday from the NAM3K, and also a snowfall map will be added as the first comment in the tread covering from 1 p.m. today through the end of Monday which is what the baseline for all three snow events should be. When I say "baseline" I mean the lower end. The back end part of this looks pretty good to me, but they don't always confirm of course.

**Saturday's Snow **
Most of the snow so far today fell from the Berkshires through Sugarbush. Looks like probably 3"-5" generally on peaks in those areas based on some observations. Tonight from Mount Mansfield to Jay, to Burke, and parts of the Whites should receive another 2" to 4" more. Other areas in the ADK's and Catskills probably picked up 2"-3" generally today.

**Sunday's Snow **m
During the PM low pressure will be coming across the Great Lakes, but when it hits the ADK's it's going to transfer it's energy well off the coast where that will dry up the inland low causing it to fizzle as it approaches Vermont. It's hard to say for sure when this happens despite what the model shows, but most of the snow in the Sunday system should land in PA, NY, and VT.

 
StormTotalSnowWeb_NY-1.jpg

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They are so dumb not to show other states/Canada.

This is a map that NWS recently added. Not as good as the old NY + New England map, but pretty useful for this crowd.

SnowAmt_72hr.jpg
 
We still have that slow moving upper-level low with a weak cold front moving through, the weekend featured a decent severe weather outbreak with Southeast New York and southern New England, especially Connecticut seeing 5-6 tornadoes. I think two were weak EF1’s and the rest were EF0’s, having that many tornadoes in Mid-November is a big deal, and out of the ordinary.

For Saturday into this morning, I picked up 7 inches of lake snow on the Tug Hill. I will likely pick up another couple of inches today, before the band drifts south, bringing a coating to an inch, but the higher hills, especially southwest of Syracuse could see 2-4 inches. Over the weekend western and northeastern Pennsylvania into northern New England saw some snow, especially in those elevations over 1500 feet. But the weekend was cold and blustery, for most of us. Even some of y’all saw the first snowflakes of the season in the I-95 corridor.

High pressure will build into the region Tuesday; this will bring more in the way of sun and drier conditions for Tuesday. This will also shut the lake effect down. Winds will also become a bit gusty, as a warm front approaches. The southernly flow, will lead to seasonally mild conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. But days look to be dry as well.

Friday into Saturday a strong cold front will move through bringing cooler temperatures and rain and snow showers for the weekend. We will have to watch and see if low pressure develops along the cold front. Monday a reenforcing cold front will move through bringing scattered rain/snow showers. Behind the front, next week will see much colder air. There is a chance for some kind of wintery storm for at least some of us right around Thanksgiving. Too early to know the exact details, but keep it in the back of your mind.

If you haven’t read my 3nd and final part of my winter outlook, check it out; the link is on the weather page.from Rebecca Facebook weather very reliable weather forecast tug hill might soo
 
Well it's really not winter and it's going to be rain if it happens. So I would say yes and no.
Def not winter
Local guys are still saying snow is possible. A few inches would be nice but praying it won't be 4 feet like it was a few years ago. That storm shut our hunting down for 2 days. It sucked.
 
I have noticed in the since around 2000 almost any time there is a question of whether a system will be snow or rain, as opposed to a clean forecast for snow, the result is rain, and I mean this seems to be close to 100% of the time, I know some here don't subscribe to man made global warming but when you've been around as long as I have. [75 years] you know there is no question our weather has substantially changed in just a few decades.
 
According to OpenSnow, Holiday Valley is going to get 10" over the next 10 days. Whiteface 8" over the same period.
It's early but I'm getting antsy this year :)
 
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