Market Philosophy

JTG

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 6, 2020
We haven’t resurrected this one yet on the new site, have we?

It’s certainly been a ride since the beginning of the year.....and the ride likely won’t be over any time soon! The economy was difficult enough to gauge before...and we now have ongoing COVID shit, and the election. Word of note....as hard a it may be, let’s try not to be “political” if we talk at all about how the election may affect the economy. Yeah, I know...good luck with that.

So, where are you, what you currently got, and where do you see things going?

Earlier this year I transitioned to a 50/50 mix between equities an bonds. Generally too heavily weighted to bonds for my age in a “normal” market...but I wanted to soften the swings I saw coming this year. It’s largely worked, and my 401(k) return YTD sits somewhere between the NASDAQ and the S&P. On days like yesterday when those indexes swing by a point and a half my portfolio swings by a smaller margin.

I know at some point I need to shift my balance more back toward equities....
 
Repeating what I said in the previous thread:

the stock market won’t take off unless we get some stimulus, which is desperately needed.

we also need to get unemployment back to where it was when it was generating (very very very slight) wage growth.

the Fed, thankfully, has indicated that interest rates will remain low for years. Good news for people in the market. Shitty news for the 50% of Americans who don’t own stock.
 
I know at some point I need to shift my balance more back toward equities....

When did you move into bonds?
 
Tell! WF?
20201007_122936.jpg

?
 
We're right back to where we were in late Jan. I'm no a market timer, but if I had done what you did, I would have taken advantage of that huge drop. If you time it perfectly, the way you did, you really can't lose.

If you get back in now it's a wash, if the market goes higher, you lost. Hope for a meltdown and jump on it.

Screen Shot 2020-10-07 at 7.59.26 PM.png


All of it is easier said than done, which is why I don't time.
 
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